International Crisis Group
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Landmark South China Sea Ruling Could Revive Negotiations
An international tribunal has issued a sweeping ruling against China in a landmark case brought by the Philippines over disputed claims in the South China Sea. Beijing rejected the ruling, but the judgment’s legal clarity could ultimately provide the basis of a better, durable, negotiated outcome for the many parties involved.
Source: Crisis Group
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“China wants to press the Philippines to downplay future tribunal decisions. Its bottom line is that countries outside the region, like the United States and Japan, not get involved” —Xie Yanmei, senior China analyst at International Crisis Group tells South China Morning Post on the South China Sea: Hague case
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“Washington’s show of resolve and force has to be complemented by efforts to shore up ASEAN’s institutional capacity and capability. It has to ensure its actions support ASEAN’s leadership but not replace it.” —Yanmei Xie, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst, China, tells dpa international referring to the Association of South-East Asian Nations
Source: dpa international
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Avoiding a Military Showdown in the South China Sea
In the coming weeks, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague is expected to rule on a challenge to China’s extensive maritime claims in the South China Sea. The court is unlikely to decide in Beijing’s favor. But China has already refused to participate, calling the process “illegal,” and has pre-emptively rejected the judgement of the court.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
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Stirring up the South China Sea (IV): Oil in Troubled Waters
The South China Sea’s hydrocarbon resources are hotly contested though its reserves are unproven. While their potential economic benefit may be considerable, their foremost significance is political, as their division has implications for sovereignty and fundamental law of the sea principles. Exploration frictions have deepened geopolitical fault lines.
FULL REPORT (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: AFP/Hoang Dinh
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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Fishing For Ways To De-Escalate South China Sea Tensions | Yanmei Xie and Shuxian Luo
While the increasing militarization of the South China Sea strains Asia-Pacific’s stability and security for the long term, the region’s humble fishing fleets pose more immediate, frequent, and less managed risks. If properly organized, however, those same fleets could offer one way to develop a culture of compromise and cooperation.
After running a controversial program of land reclamation in the South China Sea, China has recently started to build facilities on its artificial island outposts. Unsurprisingly, neighboring countries remain anxious about Beijing’s ultimate intentions, fearful especially of military threats.
FULL ARTICLE (via The Diplomat)
Photo: Rob and Stephanie Levy/ Flickr
Source: The Diplomat
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Did the Game Just Change in the South China Sea? (And What Should the U.S. Do About It?) | Yanmei Xie & Andrew S. Erickson
The game has changed. By sending a military aircraft to take a close-up view of the outposts China is constructing and stating it “will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows,” the U.S. appears to have drawn a red line for Beijing.
Washington demonstrated its substantive investment in freedom of navigation and open access to Asia’s maritime commons and displayed resolve to counter threats to them. The message, delivered via the navy, will discredit a calculation by some Chinese and regional actors that the U.S. is unwilling or incapable of delivering more than verbal protests, because it is distracted by crises in other parts of the world. It may also stiffen the spines of other players, most importantly the Association of South East Asia Nations (ASEAN).
FULL ARTICLE ( via China File)
Photo: Aljazeera English
Source: China File
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Raising the Stakes In the South China Sea | Yanmei Xie
A risky game of chicken is building up between China and the U.S. in the South China Sea.
In the most recent development, it was reported that the Pentagon is considering a proposal to dispatch its navy for a close-up view of the man-made islands China is building there.
This follows the failure of Washington’s verbal protests to slow China’s reclamation activities, which have turned reefs into man-made features capable of hosting airstrips and military garrisons and stoked regional anxiety about Beijing’s intentions.
FULL COMMENTARY (via In Pursuit of Peace)
Photo: Official U.S. Navy Page/Flickr
Source: In Pursuit of Peace
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Stirring up the South China Sea (III): A Fleeting Opportunity for Calm
The South China Sea is the cockpit of geopolitics in East Asia. Five countries – Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam – plus Taiwan have substantial and competing territorial and maritime claims in a body of water that is both an important source of hydrocarbons and fisheries and a vital trade corridor. The recent history has been scarred by cycles of confrontation. Today, the clashes are becoming more heated, and the lulls between periods of tension are growing shorter. As the region continues to grow in influence and power, the handling of the competing claims will set the tone for relations within East Asia for years. The cost of even a momentary failure to manage tensions could pose a significant threat to one of the world’s great collaborative economic success stories. Despite China’s controversial development of some of the reefs it controls, the current relatively low temperature of the disagreement offers a chance to break the cycle, but it is likely to be short-lived. The countries of the region, supported by the wider international community, need to embrace the opportunity while it lasts.
FULL REPORT (via Crisis Group)
Photo: AFP/ GUO QIUDA, XINHUA
Source: Crisis Group
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Coastal Province’s Fishing Rules Alarm U.S. | Bree Feng
New fishing regulations issued by a Chinese province along the South China Sea have once again focused international attention on a complex territorial dispute and raised the question of what kind of power China will become.
In a move that a spokeswoman for the State Department, Jen Psaki, on Thursday called a “provocative and potentially dangerous act,” the southern Chinese province of Hainan issued the new regulations, effective Jan. 1, that require foreign fishing vessels to obtain permission from the Chinese government before plying sea waters that China claims.
FULL ARTICLE (New York Times)
Photo: llee_wu/flickr