International Crisis Group

Understanding Kim Jong Un, The World’s Most Enigmatic and Unpredictable Dictator | Mark Bowden

Talk-show comedians and the tabloid press may delight in mocking Kim, but many of those who watch him closely are actually impressed. What are the things a dictator needs to be good at? You need to manage the system—the party structure, the military, the economy, and the security forces—in such a way that your people remain loyal. This is done by adopting policies that bring prosperity, if not to everyone, then to at least enough people; by artfully elevating those most loyal and able; and by demoting the able but disloyal. Threats to your power must be eliminated ruthlessly.

A dictator needs to know how to present himself in public, and at this, Kim III already excels. He has a deep voice and is a capable public speaker. “I have noticed in my viewing of him that he moves well as a politician,” says Bill Richardson. “He is a lot better than his father. He smiles. Goes and shakes people’s hands.” Daniel Pinkston, a deputy project director for the International Crisis Group, who studies North Korea closely, says, “I do not like dictatorships, but as far as being a dictator—given that system, and what type of person is needed to manage it, maintain it, and sustain it—he is a great dictator.”

Photo: “Kim Jong Un” by Zennie Abraham is licensed under CC BY ND 2.0. 

DNI Clapper’s Rescue Mission to the DPRK | Daniel Pinkston 

On 8 November 2014, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea released U.S. citizens Kenneth Bae and Matthew Miller into the custody of James Clapper, the director of national intelligence (DNI), for a return flight to the United States. Bae had been detained for two years after being convicted by a DPRK court for committing “hostile acts against the DPRK”. Bae, a Christian missionary, was suspected of having proselytised against the regime, calling for a “religious coup d’état”. Miller was arrested in April 2014 and convicted in September 2014, also for committing “hostile acts against the DPRK”. Miller reportedly tore up his tourist visa upon arrival at Pyongyang’s Sunan International Airport and asked for political asylum.

Some people expressed surprise at the sudden release of Bae and Miller. But Jeffrey Fowle, another detained American citizen, was released in late October. Fowle had been arrested for allegedly leaving a Bible in the toilet at the Ch’ŏngjin Seamen’s Club, a restaurant and bar for foreign sailors (and North Koreans with cash). Clearly, the detention of the Americans no longer served the purposes of the regime, but Pyongyang apparently requested a visit by a high-level U.S. government official before agreeing to their release. The Obama administration would have been sensitive about sending a high-level official because of possible criticism at home and because Pyongyang could manipulate the visit for propaganda purposes. The administration pointed out that DNI James Clapper was selected for the mission to emphasise that the visit was not to include broader diplomatic discussions.

FULL COMMENTARY (In Pursuit of Peace Crisis Group Blog)

Photo: Reuters/Anthony Bolante

North Korea completes upgrade at space center for larger rockets, says report | Tim Hume and KJ Kwon

Seoul (CNN) – New images of North Korea’s main satellite launch site show that an upgrade allowing for larger rockets has been completed, raising the possibility of a fresh launch within the year, a new report says.

Based on satellite images of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, located on North Korea’s west coast close to the Chinese border, the report was posted on the 38 North website, run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University.

“North Korea is now ready to move forward with another rocket launch,” concluded the report by retired imagery technology expert Nick Hansen, adding that if the political decision were made to proceed, “a rocket could be launched by the end of 2014.”

FULL ARTICLE (CNN)

Photo: felibrilu/flickr

Despite warnings, more Western tourists are traveling to North Korea | STEVEN BOROWIEC

It’s the kind of publicity that would seemingly scare off sightseers: A trio of U.S. citizens detained in North Korea pleading for help last week in brief, rarely granted media interviews.

Yet even as the ordeal for the men, who had gone to the reclusive communist outpost with tour groups, drags on — and as the U.S. strongly warns Americans against visiting — North Korea is making a push for more Western tourists.

And more are visiting.

FULL ARTICLE (LA Times)

Photo: Robert/Flickr

Last week, Crisis Group’s Report Fire on the City Gate: Why China Keeps North Korea Close was featured in the Council of Foreign Relations Must Read List! You can check out the full report here!

Justice in Colombia, engaging Pyongyang, Turkey’s tangled Syria policy…a look at what we’ve been up to this week.

Pondering Pyongyang: Beijing’s problem child | CNN

By Kristie Lu Stout

After the United Nations slapped tougher sanctions on North Korea after its third nuclear test in February this year, Pyongyang screamed in defiance. It canceled its hotline with South Korea, withdrew its workers from the Kaesong industrial complex it jointly operates with Seoul, and carried on with its over-the-top threats.

China may have backed those sanctions but the economic lifeline is still there. Trade goes on between North Korea and China. In 2011, before some of these trade embargoes began, China accounted for an estimated 67.2% of North Korea’s exports and 61.6% of imports, according to the CIA World Factbook.

“If you talk to officials at the border, there’s no change,” says Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, the North Asian head of the International Crisis Group.

FULL ARTICLE (CNN)

Photo: adaptorplug/Flickr

Expanded UN sanctions on North Korea prompt rage from Pyongyang | Guardian

By Tania Branigan

North Korea has said it is cancelling a hotline and non-aggression pact with the South after the United Nations security council unanimously backed a toughened sanctions regime over the country’s third nuclear test.

Pyongyang issued a series of warnings in the run-up to Thursday’s vote, and in the hours before the council met it raised the threat of a pre-emptive nuclear strike on the United States. Experts point out it has a history of bellicose statements without matching action, and do not believe it capable of mounting a nuclear warhead on a missile that could reach the US, but expect the North to take action of some kind in response.

Shortly after the resolution was agreed the North’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, the body dealing with cross-border affairs on the peninsula, announced the cancellation of the hotline and non-aggression pact, repeating its threat to retaliate with “crushing strikes” if enemies trespass on to its territory and to cancel nuclear disarmament agreements with the South.

FULL ARTICLE (The Guardian)

Photo: (stephan)/Flickr

The Dolphins of Pyongyang  |  The Atlantic

By Max Fisher

When youthful dictator Kim Jong Un spent who knows how much money building and populating a state-of-the-art dolphin aquarium, opened to great fanfare in Pyongyang this week, it would certainly seem like another moment of madness and unhinged narcissism by a regime that is singularly talented at both. And, of course, it is crazy – North Korea is in the middle of yet another food crisis, and whatever these highly trained animals and their specialized equipment cost probably could have kept some number of North Koreans fed, or perhaps rebuilt the thousands of shoddy homes destroyed in recent flooding. 

FULL ARTICLE (The Atlantic)

Photo: Stefan Krasowski/Flickr