International Crisis Group
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Russia’s Choice in Syria
In announcing Moscow’s intent to withdraw the “main part“ of the military assets that it deployed to Syria since last September, President Vladimir Putin again caught much of the world off-guard, this time allies and adversaries alike. Having declared victory while maintaining its war-fighting capacity in Syria, Russia has left key questions unanswered: will it actually reduce its military role and, if so, to what extent, where and against whom. But if it implements the announcement in a meaningful way, this could create the best opportunity in years to push the conflict toward an initial settlement, especially on the heels of Moscow’s decision to help implement a “cessation of hostilities”.
FULL REPORT (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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Putin’s Dragon
The center of Grozny, the capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, is unrecognizable to anyone who saw it during the country’s two most recent wars against Russia. The First Chechen War, which began in 1994, was a war of nationalist resistance—Chechnya had declared independence from Russia when the Soviet Union disintegrated—and ended two years later, after a Russian bombing campaign killed thousands of civilians and left the city in ruins. The Second Chechen War, which the Russians launched in 1999, in an effort to curb not only Chechen separatism but the threat of militant Islam, wound down a decade later, with special operations carried out deep in the craggy, wooded hills of the Caucasus. These days, the rubble is gone. The city’s skyline is punctuated by the glass towers of Grozny-City, a collection of skyscrapers that house offices, luxury apartments, and a five-star hotel. Grozny is quiet and bland, with well-paved boulevards running through its center; there is still a faint air of menace—men in black uniforms stand with automatic rifles on many street corners—but the city’s flashier attractions, like a man-made lake with a light show, seem whimsical and family-friendly.
FULL ARTICLE (Via The New Yorker)
Photo: Flickr/Christiaan Triebert
SOURCE: The New Yorker
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An Alarming New Escalation in the Syria War
Turkish officials say their fighter jets shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border on Tuesday 24 November after warning it ten times in the space of five minutes that it was violating Turkish airspace. Moscow said that a SU-24 was downed but could prove the aircraft never left Syrian airspace, with President Vladimir Putin himself saying it was 1km inside Syria. Drawing on the expertise of its analysts covering Syria, Turkey and Russia, International Crisis Group has compiled this background Q&A on possible dangers ahead.
FULL Q&A (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: Reuters/Turkish Interior Ministry
Source: Crisis Group
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What Next for Russia and Ukraine as Conflict Eases?
The most acute phase of the eighteen-month-old Ukraine war is over, at least for now. But nothing is settled yet.
After spending a week in Kyiv and Moscow with a delegation from the International Crisis Group, it is clear that Russia is sliding deeper into economic crisis and political uncertainty. Ukraine, meanwhile, has resolved none of the issues that led to its crisis boiling over into armed conflict.
FULL BLOG POST (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: REUTERS/Marko Djurica
Source: Crisis Group
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Syrian Gambits Will Not Erase Putin’s Ukraine Problem
Speaking to American talk show host Charlie Rose over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered his own recipe for wise leadership: identify problems in time and react accordingly.Viewed through the prism of events in eastern Ukraine, this looks very much like retrospective wisdom. After more than a year of improvising a policy in Donetsk and Luhansk, Putin seems to be looking for a way out. Syria is helping, for now at least, by drawing attention at home and abroad away from Ukraine. But he cannot wish the problem away.
FULL POST (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: REUTERS/Gleb Garanich
Source: Crisis Group
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Georgia wary of Moscow deals with South Ossetia and Abkhazia | Kathrin Hille
Russia and Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia signed a border agreement on Wednesday, setting off alarm bells in Tbilisi and western Europe about Moscow’s intentions for the two regions it fought a war over in 2008.
But as doubts mount over whether last week’s ceasefire can calm the conflict in eastern Ukraine, observers in Moscow and the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali say that this latest agreement reflect a Russian attempt to straighten out its relations with Georgia’s two breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said a similar treaty to the one signed with South Ossetia was being prepared with Abkhazia as well.
FULL ARTICLE (via Financial Times)
Photo: UN Photo/Justyna Melnikiewicz
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Eastern Ukraine: A Dangerous Winter
Kyiv/Brussels | 18 Dec 2014
Winter in Ukraine is injecting further uncertainty into an already volatile conflict. After well over 5,000 deaths and eight months of war, eastern Ukraine – particularly the separatist-held parts of Donetsk and Luhansk – now runs the risk of a humanitarian crisis. All parties involved in the conflict should refrain from offensive operations, concentrating instead on helping the population survive the winter, and laying the groundwork for a political settlement.
With the onset of the cold, many people living in the east will find themselves without access to food, heating or medication. The separatists will be unable to do much to help, having created little in the way of a functioning government and having few competent administrators. In its latest report, Eastern Ukraine: A Dangerous Winter, the International Crisis Group examines the thinking and capacity of the separatist leadership and their relationship with Moscow, and proposes short-term recommendations to stabilise the security situation and build confidence on all sides.
The report’s major findings and recommendations are:
- The EU, U.S. and all others involved in the peace process should call on the separatists, the Ukrainian and Russian governments to foreswear any offensive military actions over the winter. All actors involved should move urgently to demilitarise the conflict by substantially increasing monitors on the ground, both to separate the forces and closely observe the Ukrainian-Russian border. They should also urge separatist and Ukrainian leaders back to the negotiating table.
- On its part, Russia should spell out the exact nature of its political relationship with the separatist areas of the east, in particularly clarifying what it has long hinted at – that it has no plans to recognise their independence. Moscow should propose negotiations with Kyiv to resupply Crimea by land during the winter if needed and offer wholehearted support for a significant increase in the number of monitors on the ground in south east Ukraine.
- Ukraine should facilitate the delivery of emergency humanitarian assistance, if needed, to the separatist-held areas, and consult with the international community on ways to lessen the impact for non-combatants in Donetsk and Luhansk of presidential decree 875/2014, which declares illegal any bodies established by the separatists on the basis of their 2 November elections.
“Both Kyiv and the separatists are under pressure from their war lobbies, and the near-term risk of further hostilities is high”, says Isabelle Arradon, Deputy Chief Policy Officer and Director of Research. “The separatists’ improvised and rudimentary administrative structures are totally unequipped to handle any major humanitarian crisis should one happen”.
“There is an urgent need to halt the conflict, separate the troops, deploy substantially larger numbers of international monitors across the warzone and the Russian-Ukrainian border, as well as take immediate steps to assist civilians on both sides”, says Paul Quinn Judge, Europe and Central Asia Program Director. “The winter should be used to achieve the first steps toward a political settlement”.
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Soros Says Russia in Ukraine Poses Threat to EU Existence | Alessandra Migliaccio and Jones Hayden
The European Union must do more to counter Russia’s interference in Ukraine, where incursions threaten the bloc’s “very existence,” billionaire financier George Soros said.
“Europe needs to get its act together and prevent a financial collapse” in Ukraine, Soros said at a conference sponsored by the International Crisis Group in Brussels today. “If Ukraine effectively collapses or is neutralized in this way,” then “the geopolitical consequences would be far-reaching,” Soros said.
FULL ARTICLE (Bloomberg)
Photo: Игорь Титаренко/flickr
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Ukraine fears frozen conflict could yield winter energy crisis | Roman Olearchyk
At the Foxtrot appliance store in Kiev, the must-have product these days is a Delonghi electric heater.
“This is the last one left of 20 delivered to our store just a day ago,” Oleksander, a sales clerk, said, pointing to one of the Italian-made devices and noting that sales have increased fivefold from a year ago.
The bonanza is one indication of the panic gripping Ukraine as winter approaches and the country teeters on the edge of an energy crisis.
Imports of Russian natural gas have been cut off since June amid a price and debt dispute that has run alongside their military confrontation in eastern Ukraine. That has already prompted cold showers as the government has resorted to rationing domestically produced gas by cutting centrally provided hot water to flats.
The conflict is also now endangering Ukraine’s coal supplies. Mining activity in eastern Ukraine has been interrupted by the fighting while damage to railways has created transport bottlenecks. A Ukrainian army spokesperson this week accused Russian-backed militants of trying to seize railway hubs to control the flow of coal out of the region.
Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president, is expected to discuss the energy situation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, when the two leaders meet at a summit of EU and Asian leaders in Milan that begins on Thursday. Yet Kiev’s energy vulnerability is regarded by analysts as another factor that has given Moscow and the rebels it supports the upper hand in a conflict that has killed more than 3,500 people.
FULL ARTICLE (The Financial Times)
Photo: Andriy Baranskyy/flickr
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Stunning shots of Dagestan from Varvara Pakhomenko’s recent trip to the region. Read our accompanying blog post by Ekaterina Sokirianskaia, “Sowing Rebellion in Dagestan."