International Crisis Group

President Kabila’s attempt to stay in power beyond his second and last constitutionally-permitted term, which concludes on 19 December, is unravelling more than a decade of progress.  In our new briefing, we take a look at the current political context in DRC, and suggest ways to reduce the potential for urban violence in the coming months.

Image Source: AFP/Mustafa Mulopwe

Source: Crisis Group 

Read full briefing here…

Before he left Russia at the end of 2014, Sayidhuja Rizoyev used to make up to $40 a day as a construction worker. Then his boss decided not to renew his contract, and he returned home to ex-Soviet Tajikistan.

Now the 31-year-old father of one earns about $6-7 a day selling small items such as batteries in the capital Dushanbe.

FULL ARTICLE (Via Reuters)

Photo: Flickr/Brian Harrington Spier

SOURCE: Reuters

On 2 January 2016, an unidentified group of protesters torched the Saudi embassy in Iran. In this Q&A, Crisis Group Senior Iran Analyst Ali Vaez explains the context of the incident and the wider long-term implications of the attack.

FULL Q&A (Via Crisis Group)

Photo: CRISIS GROUP

Source: Crisis Group

Spiralling protests against a draft constitution have left 23 dead and hundreds injured in Nepal in two weeks. An over-militarised security reaction and inadequate political response from the centre threaten to fuel deep-seated ethnic, caste and regional rivalries less than a decade after the civil war’s end. The major parties should recognise the depth of discontent and the fundamental challenge this poses to the legitimacy of the proposed constitution. A hastily-passed document, weeks after mobilisation of security forces to counter citizens’ protests against it, is unlikely to be the social contract Nepal needs.

FULL ALERT (Via Crisis Group)

Photo:  AFP/Manish Paudel

Source: Crisis Group

Protests over corruption and political dysfunction are growing in Lebanon. Clashes between protesters and security forces have left dozens wounded over the last few days, increasing instability in a country highly polarised along politico-sectarian fault lines, threatened not long ago by sectarian clashes and violence, and already overwhelmed by nearly 1.2 million Syrian refugees, ongoing border tensions as well as kidnappings by Sunni Islamist militants.

Crisis Group’s Lebanon Senior Analyst Sahar Atrache examines the underlying causes of the crisis and the possible scenarios that Lebanon faces.

FULL POST: (via Crisis Group)

Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Source: Crisis Group

Guatemala President Shakes Up Cabinet Amid Probes and Protests | Santiago Pérez & Dudley Althaus 

Guatemalan President Otto Pérez purged his cabinet on Thursday as his administration struggles to contain fallout from a string of corruption probes that this week led to the arrest of the heads of the central bank and social security agency.

Mr. Pérez, a former Army general who won office in 2011 with a tough-on-crime campaign, accepted the resignation of Interior Minister Mauricio López, who is seen by analysts as one of the Guatemalan leader’s closest collaborators. Mr. Pérez also removed the country’s intelligence chief, the energy and environment ministers, and the deputy interior minister.

FULL ARTICLE (via The Wall Street Journal)

Photo: Rafael Mora/Flickr

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Burundi: le maillon faible de l’équilibre post-Rwanda

Situation très incertaine au Burundi. L’ancien chef des renseignements du pays assure avoir démis le président sortant de ses fonctions. Ce dernier se trouve en Tanzanie, pour un sommet régional justement consacré à la situation burundaise. Depuis que Pierre Nkurunziza a annoncé vouloir briguer un 3e mandat de chef d’Etat, le pays est soumis à des violences. Va-t-on vers un embrasement généralisé ?

FULL INTERVIEW ( via France Culture) 

Photo: Igor Rugwiza/Flickr

Source: France Culture

Protests Threatening African Leaders Fueled by Economic Woes | Pauline Bax

Protests in African countries from Burkina Faso to Burundi have been sparked by youthful populations with little hope of employment and by leaders who have in some cases ruled for decades.

FULL ARTICLE (Via Bloomberg)

Photo: Igor Rugwiza /Flickr 

Source: Bloomberg

Burundi Standoff Threatens Central African Stability |  Heidi Vogt

NAIROBI, Kenya—A standoff in Burundi between protesters and a president trying to flout constitutional term limits is threatening to destabilize a precarious part of Central Africa.

In the nearly two weeks since Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza said he would run for a third term, the capital Bujumbura has erupted into violent protests, leaving about a dozen people dead. Nearly 40,000 Burundians have fled the country since mid-April because of pre-election intimidation, the United Nations said.

“If this crisis lasts, it is going to trigger a new refugee crisis in the region and with the refugees come also the armed groups on the borders,” said Thierry Vircoulon, head of Central Africa for Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group.

FULL ARTICLE (via The Wall Street Journal)

Photo: EA Official/ Flickr

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Guinea Needs Consensus on Poll Position if Election Race is to Pass Peacefully | Vincent Foucher

Guinea’s history of electoral violence may not be over. Tension is building around the presidential poll scheduled for this October and the local elections planned for early next year. The opposition – principally Cellou Dalein Diallo’s Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea and Sidya Touré’s Union of Republican Forces – is concerned about possible fraud. Threatened protests should be taken seriously: in 2013, about 100 people died during electoral unrest.

FULL ARTICLE (via The Guardian)

Photo: hpierre/Flickr 

Source: The Guardian