International Crisis Group
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CrisisWatch 
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Landmark South China Sea Ruling Could Revive Negotiations
An international tribunal has issued a sweeping ruling against China in a landmark case brought by the Philippines over disputed claims in the South China Sea. Beijing rejected the ruling, but the judgment’s legal clarity could ultimately provide the basis of a better, durable, negotiated outcome for the many parties involved.
Source: Crisis Group
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“Years of negative national media coverage of Muslim aspirations have had a harmful impact on how the rest of the Philippines views southern autonomy. The new government under Duterte must remember that ignoring or derailing the existing process would lead not to a return to the status quo ante but to an unpredictable, potentially much more violent future.” —Crisis Group’s recent report: The Philippines: Renewing Prospects for Peace in Mindanao
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“China wants to press the Philippines to downplay future tribunal decisions. Its bottom line is that countries outside the region, like the United States and Japan, not get involved” —Xie Yanmei, senior China analyst at International Crisis Group tells South China Morning Post on the South China Sea: Hague case
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“Washington’s show of resolve and force has to be complemented by efforts to shore up ASEAN’s institutional capacity and capability. It has to ensure its actions support ASEAN’s leadership but not replace it.” —Yanmei Xie, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst, China, tells dpa international referring to the Association of South-East Asian Nations
Source: dpa international
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Stirring up the South China Sea (IV): Oil in Troubled Waters
The South China Sea’s hydrocarbon resources are hotly contested though its reserves are unproven. While their potential economic benefit may be considerable, their foremost significance is political, as their division has implications for sovereignty and fundamental law of the sea principles. Exploration frictions have deepened geopolitical fault lines.
FULL REPORT (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: AFP/Hoang Dinh
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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Fishing For Ways To De-Escalate South China Sea Tensions | Yanmei Xie and Shuxian Luo
While the increasing militarization of the South China Sea strains Asia-Pacific’s stability and security for the long term, the region’s humble fishing fleets pose more immediate, frequent, and less managed risks. If properly organized, however, those same fleets could offer one way to develop a culture of compromise and cooperation.
After running a controversial program of land reclamation in the South China Sea, China has recently started to build facilities on its artificial island outposts. Unsurprisingly, neighboring countries remain anxious about Beijing’s ultimate intentions, fearful especially of military threats.
FULL ARTICLE (via The Diplomat)
Photo: Rob and Stephanie Levy/ Flickr
Source: The Diplomat
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Stirring up the South China Sea (III): A Fleeting Opportunity for Calm
The South China Sea is the cockpit of geopolitics in East Asia. Five countries – Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam – plus Taiwan have substantial and competing territorial and maritime claims in a body of water that is both an important source of hydrocarbons and fisheries and a vital trade corridor. The recent history has been scarred by cycles of confrontation. Today, the clashes are becoming more heated, and the lulls between periods of tension are growing shorter. As the region continues to grow in influence and power, the handling of the competing claims will set the tone for relations within East Asia for years. The cost of even a momentary failure to manage tensions could pose a significant threat to one of the world’s great collaborative economic success stories. Despite China’s controversial development of some of the reefs it controls, the current relatively low temperature of the disagreement offers a chance to break the cycle, but it is likely to be short-lived. The countries of the region, supported by the wider international community, need to embrace the opportunity while it lasts.
FULL REPORT (via Crisis Group)
Photo: AFP/ GUO QIUDA, XINHUA
Source: Crisis Group
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Tackle early the conditions that breed extremism | Jean-Marie Guéhenno (Crisis Group President and CEO)
The recent murders of Haruna Yukawa and Kenji Goto are tragic illustrations of the global reach of violent religious extremism.
The violence carried out by the Islamic State is particularly horrific, and a bitter first-hand experience for Japan. But it is part of a broader trend of extremist groups operating in deeply unstable pockets of the world and employing brutal tactics, including Boko Haram in Nigeria, Al-Shabaab in Somalia, the Pakistani Taliban, among others.
Closer to home, Islamic militants have attempted to blast their way on to the agenda in countries like Indonesia, the Philippines and India: all countries where Japan has sizable investments. They have had little success selling their ideology within these countries on any scale, but they remain a threat.
FULL COMMENTARY (via Nikkei Asian Review)
Photo: World Economic Forum/flickr
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Check out this month’s issue of CrisisWatch as an interactive map! Conflict situations deteriorated in Libya, Central African Republic, Ukraine, and Yemen, while conditions improved in the Philippines. http://bit.ly/16WsmPX