International Crisis Group
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Iran : Deal or No Deal | Ali Vaez
Negotiations by nature never produce perfect outcomes. The compromise announced by Iran and the P5+1/E3+3 is by no means perfect, but it is the best path for returning Iran to the concert of nations and ensuring that its nuclear program will remain peaceful. An effective agreement should not be compared to an ideal, one that is unattainable. It should be compared to its alternatives: a return to an escalating cycle of more sanctions and more centrifuges, an Iranian bomb or bombing Iran. Here are ten reasons why this deal is much better than no deal:
VIEW SLIDER (via In Pursuit of Peace)
Photo: Crisis Group
Source: In Pursuit of Peace
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Missing the point on Iran’s nuclear ‘breakout’ time | Ali Vaez (Crisis Group Senior Analyst for Iran)
One reason for the urgency behind Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s controversial speech to Congress on Tuesday is the fact that a nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers is reportedly taking shape in Switzerland. The parameters of the agreement under discussion — and, indeed, of any deal that can plausibly be reached right now —will leave Iran with infrastructure that could potentially be repurposed towards weaponization. So, the key metric by which the U.S. Congress will judge any agreement will be “breakout time,” the minimum period required for Iran, using that infrastructure, to produce 25 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium. That would be enough for a single bomb, should Tehran decide to build one.
The timescale for Iran to produce a bomb’s worth of fissile material is an appealingly simple criterion in light of the technical complexity of the negotiations. But it’s also a deceptively simple one. Five common misperceptions make “breakout time” a misleading gauge of the potential threat:
Misperception #1: Breakout time measures the time needed to build a nuclear weapon
Misperception #2: Breakout time is measurable
Misperception #3: Breaking out is Iran’s most likely path to weaponization
Misperception #4: A shorter breakout time reduces Washington’s ability to prevent an Iranian sprint to nuclear weapons
Misperception #5: If the breakout time is short enough, Iran will dash to build a bomb
FULL COMMENTARY (via Al Jazeera America)
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