International Crisis Group
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“Nigeria’s military is in distress. Once among Africa’s strongest and a mainstay of regional peacekeeping, it has become a flawed force.” —Crisis Group’s latest report, Nigeria: The Challenge of Military Reform
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CrisisWatch N°154 is now out, looking at trends for May and the outlook for June
The month saw Venezuela’s political, economic and humanitarian crisis worsen amid heightened tensions between the government and opposition, a situation which could lead to state collapse and regional destabilisation. Another major setback in electing a new president in Haiti prompted fears of further civil unrest. In West Africa, deadly violence in central Mali and south-east Nigeria spiked, while a power struggle in Guinea-Bissau led to a dangerous standoff. In Libya, factions for and against the fledgling Government of National Accord (GNA) advanced on Sirte to expel the Islamic State (IS), risking clashes over oil facilities, while Turkey saw heightened political polarisation and an increase in violence in Kurdish areas. Ongoing peace talks, despite slow progress and ongoing violence, remain the best chance to end major combat in Yemen.
Source: Crisis Group
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“Unless the government pursues comprehensive reforms, its gains in subduing Boko Haram will be short-lived.” —Crisis Group’s Nnamdi Obasi in latest commentary: Buhari’s Nigeria: Boko Haram off Balance, but Other Troubles Surge
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Buhari’s Nigeria: Boko Haram off Balance, but Other Troubles Surge
The peaceful election in March 2015 of President Muhammadu Buhari, a former army general, raised hopes that some of Nigeria’s most pressing security problems could soon be tamed. One year later, the new government has struck at the Islamist Boko Haram insurgency. But Nigeria is sliding deeper into other difficulties.
FULL COMMENTARY (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: Anadolu Agency/Stringer
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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“Boko Haram is losing ground, resources and fighters, but defeating the group and preventing the spread of its terrorist attacks to new areas needs more than military success.” —Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for West Africa, Vincent Foucher, in The Guardian
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Exploiting Disorder: al-Qaeda and the Islamic State
The Islamic State (IS), al-Qaeda-linked groups, Boko Haram and other extremist movements are protagonists in today’s deadliest crises, complicating efforts to end them. They have exploited wars, state collapse and geopolitical upheaval in the Middle East, gained new footholds in Africa and pose an evolving threat elsewhere. Reversing their gains requires avoiding the mistakes that enabled their rise.
FULL REPORT (Via Crisis Group)
PHOTO: MAGNUM/Lorenzo Meloni
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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New Risks on Nigeria’s Shiite Fault Line
On 12 and 13 December, Nigerian government troops clashed with members of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN). Their battle in the city of Zaria, in north central Kaduna state, reportedly killed more than 100 people, including some senior movement members, and threatened wider violence.
Crisis Group’s Senior Nigeria Analyst Nnamdi Obasi provides some insight into what happened, the relationship of the Shiite group with the government and with Sunni radicals, and whether the Nigerian government risks a second Boko Haram-style insurgency.
FULL Q&A (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: REUTERS/Stringer
Source: Crisis Group
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Nigeria’s Biafran Separatist Upsurge
The month-long demonstrations by pro-separatist ethnic Ibo youth in south-east Nigeria degenerated into violence on 2 December. At least eight of the thousands of protestors who had blocked the strategic Niger Bridge at Onitsha, Anambra state (linking the predominantly Ibo south east to western parts of the country) as well as two policemen, were killed. Demonstrators set fire to the city’s central mosque and eight trucks belonging to Dangote Group, a conglomerate owned by northern billionaire Aliko Dangote. Crisis Group’s Nigeria Analyst Nnamdi Obasi discusses Nigeria’s new struggle with supporters of the short-lived, secessionist Republic of Biafra, which was defeated by federal forces in 1970.
FULL POST (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: Pius Utomi Ekepei/AFP
Source: Crisis Group
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CrisisWatch N° 147 (02 Nov 2015)
As armed conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, South Sudan, Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere continued to inflict much suffering and instability around the world, the heads of the UN and International Committee of the Red Cross issued an unprecedented joint warning about the impact of today’s conflicts on civilians and called on states to redouble their efforts to find sustainable solutions to conflicts. Welcoming the call to action, Jean-Marie Guéhenno, President & CEO of the International Crisis Group, said: “It is imperative that the world do much more to respond to early warning signs and prevent wars breaking out in the first place”.
FULL REPORT (Via Crisis Group)
Source: Crisis Group
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Environmental Degradation, Climate Change and Conflict: The Lake Chad Basin Area
Ayo Obe’s contribution to the Future of Conflict collection of 20 essays for Crisis Group’s 20th Anniversary.
In 1974, Yisa (not his real name), a young engineer from Chibok town in north-eastern Nigeria’s Borno state, was an enthusiastic participant in the country’s response to the severe drought that had affected northern Nigeria and the wider Sahel region over the previous two years. The federal military government established several large-scale irrigation schemes designed to check the impact of future droughts, as well as allow the cultivation of rice, wheat, tomatoes and other foodstuffs. Engineer Yisa worked hard enough to merit a scholarship for further studies in Germany. But by the time he returned in 1979, hopes that the shrinkage of Lake Chad was due to temporary drought could no longer be sustained. And in 1984 he was one of several hundred who were sacked with little notice and no benefits when it became clear that Lake Chad could no longer sustain the development programs for which he had been employed.
FULL ESSAY (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: MAGNUM/Raymond Depardon
SOURCE: Crisis Group