International Crisis Group
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CrisisWatch - Tracking Conflict Worldwide
Global Overview
October saw Venezuela’s tense political standoff at new heights amid economic stress and popular unrest, and Haiti’s weak political and security equilibrium struck by a major natural disaster and humanitarian crisis. In Africa, violence worsened in the Central African Republic (CAR), north-eastern Kenya, Mozambique and western Niger, while in Ethiopia the government hardened its response to continued protests. In Myanmar, unprecedented attacks on police in the north triggered deadly clashes and displacement threatening to exacerbate intercommunal tensions across the country, while Russia’s North Caucasus saw an increase in conflict-related casualties, detentions and counter-terrorism operations. In the Middle East, the election of Michel Aoun as president of Lebanon signals a long-awaited breakthrough ending two years of political deadlock.
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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“Boko Haram is losing ground, resources and fighters, but defeating the group and preventing the spread of its terrorist attacks to new areas needs more than military success.” —Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for West Africa, Vincent Foucher, in The Guardian
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Environmental Degradation, Climate Change and Conflict: The Lake Chad Basin Area
Ayo Obe’s contribution to the Future of Conflict collection of 20 essays for Crisis Group’s 20th Anniversary.
In 1974, Yisa (not his real name), a young engineer from Chibok town in north-eastern Nigeria’s Borno state, was an enthusiastic participant in the country’s response to the severe drought that had affected northern Nigeria and the wider Sahel region over the previous two years. The federal military government established several large-scale irrigation schemes designed to check the impact of future droughts, as well as allow the cultivation of rice, wheat, tomatoes and other foodstuffs. Engineer Yisa worked hard enough to merit a scholarship for further studies in Germany. But by the time he returned in 1979, hopes that the shrinkage of Lake Chad was due to temporary drought could no longer be sustained. And in 1984 he was one of several hundred who were sacked with little notice and no benefits when it became clear that Lake Chad could no longer sustain the development programs for which he had been employed.
FULL ESSAY (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: MAGNUM/Raymond Depardon
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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In the latest Global Development Podcast from The Guardian, EJ Hogendoorn, Crisis Group’s Africa deputy program director, argues that a lack of effective governance in northern Nigeria combined with entrenched corruption and a lack of opportunities for the large youth population have created a fertile environment for Boko Haram.
FULL PODCAST (via The Guardian)
Photo: Global Panorama/ Flickr
Source: The Guardian
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Boko Haram Turns RobinHood’s Strategy on Its Head | Siobhán O’Grady
As a convoy of trucks carrying smoked fish cruised along the border of Niger and Nigeria last week, a Nigerien Air Force plane swooped low and opened fire, destroying the trucks and forcing the drivers to flee into Nigeria on foot.
The ill-fated fishmongers, Nigerien officials said, were collaborating with Boko Haram to sell their goods in Nigeria, despite Niger’s recent ban on cross-border fish trades. (Residents of Niger are called Nigerien; those from Nigeria are known as Nigerian). According to the Nigerien government, Boko Haram taxes goods transported through the territory the group controls to add to its cash reserves and finance terrorism, and the recent ban is intended to choke the Islamist group’s resources.
This alleged collaboration between rural fish traders and members of Boko Haram sheds some light on the group’s murky funding tactics, which differ sharply from those of other terrorist groups.
FULL ARTICLE (via Foreign Policy)
Photo: Hello World Media/flickr
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Five killed in anti-Charlie Hebdo riots in Niger | AFP
Five people were killed in violent riots in Niger’s capital Saturday over the depiction of the Prophet Mohammed on the cover of France’s Charlie Hebdo weekly, with angry crowds setting fire to churches.
The protesters torched at least eight houses of worship in Niamey. Bars, hotels and various businesses under non-Muslim ownership or bearing signs of French companies were also targeted, an AFP correspondent reported.
It was the second day of violence in the west African country over the Mohammed cartoon, after five people were killed and 45 injured in protests in Niger’s second city of Zinder on Friday.
FULL ARTICLE (AFP via The Daily Mail)
Photo: Gustave Deghilage/flickr
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Niger: Another Weak Link in the Sahel?
Dakar/Brussels | 19 September 2013
In its latest report, Niger: Another Weak Link in the Sahel?, the International Crisis Group examines threats to Niger’s security as well as factors that could preserve its stability.
In a deteriorating regional environment, President Mahamadou Issoufou and his Western allies are increasingly relying on a security strategy that has already shown its limitations elsewhere in the Sahel. This report, Crisis Group’s first on Niger, explores how an excessive focus on external threats might overshadow important internal dynamics, such as communal tensions, a fragile democratic experience and the growing marginalisation of the poor, especially in rural areas.
The report’s major findings are:
In 50 years as an independent state, Niger has experienced two armed rebellions, four coups, seven republics and periods of promising democratic changes as well as reversals. Democratic institutions have started to take root but they need reinforcement.
The current administration, which took over after a military-led transition in 2011, is still fragile. The president’s “Renaissance” program, a platform of reforms on which he was elected, raised hopes but has yet to show tangible results. Tensions surrounding the formation of the new national unity government last August revealed an unstable political situation.
Threats to stability are mainly perceived as external, but the possibility of a terrorist spillover from outside Niger is compounded by a fragile internal socio-economic and political environment.
Although the Tuareg issue – namely this community’s sense of disenfranchisement – appears better managed than in neighbouring Mali, it has yet to be fully resolved.
President Issoufou and his Western allies’ security strategy will be of little help in establishing a bond of trust between state and people – especially if increased security spending were to come at the expense of social expenditure.
“Niger has been included in security strategies that protect it but over which it has little influence”, says Jean-Hervé Jezequel, Crisis Group Sahel Senior Analyst. “Encouraged by its allies to upgrade its security apparatus, the Nigerien government has also substantially increased its military expenditure. But such a security focus could lead to a reallocation of resources at the expense of already weak social sectors”.
“Rather than a security state, the people of Niger need a government that provides services, an economy that creates employment and a reinforced democratic system”, says Jonathan Prentice, Crisis Group’s Chief Policy Officer. “President Issoufou should maintain focus on his initial goals and recognise that national security and stability depend on a robust political and socio-economic agenda as much as they do on narrow counter-terrorism military responses”.
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Analysis: After Mali, Niger battles to secure its borders | IRIN
The takeover of northern Mali by Islamist rebels after a 2012 coup, and the subsequent French-led intervention, have widened fears of a spill-over of insurgency in the region. Niger, which has socio-political problems comparable to those of Mali, is battling to secure its territory from militants still operating in Sahel’s remote wilderness.
Insecurity is an ever-present threat. The country suffered twin attacks on 23 May, when assailants struck a military base and a French-run uranium mine in the north, killing dozens.
FULL ARTICLE (IRIN News)
Photo: United Nations/Flickr
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![“The risk is that [expenditure] on social assistance programmes could increasingly be adjusted depending on security concerns, and it is doubtful that this will be to the benefit of the Nigerien population as a whole.“
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“The risk is that [expenditure] on social assistance programmes could increasingly be adjusted depending on security concerns, and it is doubtful that this will be to the benefit of the Nigerien population as a whole.“
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Did Qaddafi flee to Niger? Libyan convoy in Niger is reminder of Sahel’s close ties.
“I don’t have specific information about this convoy, but what is clear is that all the Sahelian countries had relationships with Libya and benefited from Libya, and if Burkina Faso has offered asylum, it’s likely that some of Qaddafi’s people are moving to Burkina Faso,” says Thierry Vircoulon, a Sahel expert for the International Crisis Group’s office in Nairobi, Kenya.
