International Crisis Group

Eastern Ukraine: A Dangerous Winter

Kyiv/Brussels  |   18 Dec 2014

Winter in Ukraine is injecting further uncertainty into an already volatile conflict. After well over 5,000 deaths and eight months of war, eastern Ukraine – particularly the separatist-held parts of Donetsk and Luhansk – now runs the risk of a humanitarian crisis. All parties involved in the conflict should refrain from offensive operations, concentrating instead on helping the population survive the winter, and laying the groundwork for a political settlement.

With the onset of the cold, many people living in the east will find themselves without access to food, heating or medication. The separatists will be unable to do much to help, having created little in the way of a functioning government and having few competent administrators. In its latest report, Eastern Ukraine: A Dangerous Winter, the International Crisis Group examines the thinking and capacity of the separatist leadership and their relationship with Moscow, and proposes short-term recommendations to stabilise the security situation and build confidence on all sides.

The report’s major findings and recommendations are:

• The EU, U.S. and all others involved in the peace process should call on the separatists, the Ukrainian and Russian governments to foreswear any offensive military actions over the winter. All actors involved should move urgently to demilitarise the conflict by substantially increasing monitors on the ground, both to separate the forces and closely observe the Ukrainian-Russian border. They should also urge separatist and Ukrainian leaders back to the negotiating table.

• On its part, Russia should spell out the exact nature of its political relationship with the separatist areas of the east, in particularly clarifying what it has long hinted at – that it has no plans to recognise their independence. Moscow should propose negotiations with Kyiv to resupply Crimea by land during the winter if needed and offer wholehearted support for a significant increase in the number of monitors on the ground in south east Ukraine.

• Ukraine should facilitate the delivery of emergency humanitarian assistance, if needed, to the separatist-held areas, and consult with the international community on ways to lessen the impact for non-combatants in Donetsk and Luhansk of presidential decree 875/2014, which declares illegal any bodies established by the separatists on the basis of their 2 November elections.

“Both Kyiv and the separatists are under pressure from their war lobbies, and the near-term risk of further hostilities is high”, says Isabelle Arradon, Deputy Chief Policy Officer and Director of Research. “The separatists’ improvised and rudimentary administrative structures are totally unequipped to handle any major humanitarian crisis should one happen”.

“There is an urgent need to halt the conflict, separate the troops, deploy substantially larger numbers of international monitors across the warzone and the Russian-Ukrainian border, as well as take immediate steps to assist civilians on both sides”, says Paul Quinn Judge, Europe and Central Asia Program Director. “The winter should be used to achieve the first steps toward a political settlement”.

FULL REPORT

Ukraine fears frozen conflict could yield winter energy crisis | Roman Olearchyk

At the Foxtrot appliance store in Kiev, the must-have product these days is a Delonghi electric heater.

“This is the last one left of 20 delivered to our store just a day ago,” Oleksander, a sales clerk, said, pointing to one of the Italian-made devices and noting that sales have increased fivefold from a year ago.

The bonanza is one indication of the panic gripping Ukraine as winter approaches and the country teeters on the edge of an energy crisis.

Imports of Russian natural gas have been cut off since June amid a price and debt dispute that has run alongside their military confrontation in eastern Ukraine. That has already prompted cold showers as the government has resorted to rationing domestically produced gas by cutting centrally provided hot water to flats.

The conflict is also now endangering Ukraine’s coal supplies. Mining activity in eastern Ukraine has been interrupted by the fighting while damage to railways has created transport bottlenecks. A Ukrainian army spokesperson this week accused Russian-backed militants of trying to seize railway hubs to control the flow of coal out of the region.

Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president, is expected to discuss the energy situation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, when the two leaders meet at a summit of EU and Asian leaders in Milan that begins on Thursday. Yet Kiev’s energy vulnerability is regarded by analysts as another factor that has given Moscow and the rebels it supports the upper hand in a conflict that has killed more than 3,500 people.

FULL ARTICLE (The Financial Times)

Photo: Andriy Baranskyy/flickr

US seen hardening its position in Iran nuclear talks | Al-Monitor

By Laura Rozen

Iran came to talks in Moscow last week (June 18-19) prepared to discuss stopping enriching uranium to 20% but refused two other conditions that might have led to a partial agreement in the nuclear standoff, Barbara Slavin and I report on the front page:

Briefings by diplomats whose countries took part in the talks portrayed the meetings as a “dialogue of the deaf,” with the two sides trading widely divergent proposals. However, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator did express willingness to discuss one key step requested by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1): stopping enrichment of uranium to 20% U-235, the isotope that gives uranium its explosive power.

The western members of the P5+1 insisted, however, that Iran had to meet all three conditions contained in their proposal: stop 20% enrichment, ship out a stockpile of more than 100 kilograms of 20%-enriched uranium and close Fordo, a fortified enrichment facility built into a mountain near Qom.

That stance has led some P5+1 members to conclude that the United States hardened its position in Moscow compared to two earlier sessions in Baghdad and Istanbul, according to diplomatic briefings shared with Al-Monitor. 

FULL ARTICLE (Al-Monitor)

Photo: Reuters/ Mohammed Ameen

Comment | Iran’s Nuclear Calculus | PBS Frontline

By Ali Vaez

Tehran’s nuclear calculus has fluctuated significantly since negotiations between Iran and the world powers resumed in April. Iran first appeared eager for a deal that could check the damaging momentum of sanctions and avert a war. The run-up to the Istanbul meeting was marked by positive signs, ranging from Ayatollah Khamenei’s rare praise of President Obama’s defense of diplomacy and the reiteration of his nuclear fatwa, to Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi’s constructive commentary in the Washington Post indicating commitment to diplomacy, and the conciliatory remarks by Fereydoun Abbasi Davani, chief of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, on halting high-level enrichment. At the same time, Iran’s confidence was bolstered by its recent advances in nuclear technology and the completion of the underground uranium enrichment facility at Fordow.

In the wake of the Istanbul meeting, and despite its concentration on generalities, the mood in Tehran became Pollyannaish. The West’s renewed interest in diplomacy, based on a step-by-step reciprocal process, was interpreted as a sign of weakness – a desperate attempt to tame oil prices and avert a military confrontation ahead of the U.S. presidential election and amid an unprecedented economic crisis in Europe. Tehran consequently orchestrated a messaging campaign to up the ante in Baghdad by simultaneously demanding the removal of sanctions and conditioning the public for a compromise.

Seemingly based on this calculation, in the second meeting with members of the P5+1, Iran presented a five-point strategy that included both nuclear and nonnuclear matters. But the Western response poured cold water on the expectations of Iranian negotiators. In mirror image, the West had equated Iran’s willingness to resume talks with its eagerness to delay further sanctions and avert an Israeli military attack. Perceiving signs of Iranian weakness, the West had no intention to relax or postpone sanctions on Iran’s oil sector and central bank short of a major concession by Tehran. The Iranians realized that they had erred in insisting on easing the sanctions and reverted to more familiar hardline posturing, evidenced by their foot-dragging on efforts to resolve outstanding problems with the International Atomic Energy Agency and an acerbic squabble with European negotiators vis-à-vis preparatory talks.

In Moscow, Iranian negotiators stood firm, counting on their Russian allies to persuade the rest of the P5+1 to show more flexibility. Nevertheless, intent on not being seen as stalling, Iran prepared a comprehensive response to further underscore its position and respond to the P5+1’s demands. Their proactive media campaign in Moscow, especially Deputy Negotiator Ali Bagheri’s press briefing, was testament to this strategy.

Iran and the P5+1’s diplomatic roller coaster hit bottom in Moscow, yielding nothing more than a follow-on technical meeting. But the prospect of achieving a breakthrough was as illusory as a breakdown could have been perilous. Rather than more brinkmanship based on mismatched expectations and misguided convictions, both sides should embrace intensive, continuous, technical-level negotiations to achieve a limited agreement on Iran’s 20 percent enrichment.

FULL COMMENT (PBS)

Photo: Mohammad Hassanzadeh/ FARS News Agency

Powers want “diamonds for peanuts”: Iran ex-official | Reuters

By Fredrik Dahl

A former Iranian negotiator on Friday dismissed as “diamonds for peanuts” a proposal by world powers that Tehran halt higher-grade uranium enrichment and close an underground nuclear site in exchange for reactor fuel and civil aviation parts.

Hossein Mousavian, now a visiting scholar at Princeton University in the United States, said he did not believe Iran would accept the offer when the two sides hold a new round of discussions in Moscow on June 18-19.

It will be the third meeting since diplomacy restarted in April after a 15-month hiatus.

FULL ARTICLE (Reuters)

Photo: Ericblair87/ Wikimedia Commons

Nuclear talks resume: Iran looking for respect and reciprocity | The Christian Science Monitor

By Scott Peterson

Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili arrived in Moscow today for critical talks with world powers, flying economy class with his team on Russia’s state airline, Aeroflot.

Mr. Jalili projects a “common man” image, but upon his shoulders may rest the high-stakes result of the third round of nuclear talks which begins tomorrow in Moscow.

Expectations are low that Iran and the P5+1 group (the US, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany) can strike a deal that will at once permanently prevent any Iranian push for an atomic bomb and preserve for Iran most of its advanced nuclear program.

FULL ARTICLE (Christian Science Monitor)

Iran, big powers agree to hold more nuclear talks in June | Reuters

By Andrew Quinn and Justyna Pawlak

Iran and world powers agreed to meet again in Moscow next month for more talks to try to end the long-running dispute over Tehran’s nuclear programme, but there was scant progress to resolve the main sticking points between the two sides.

At the heart of the dispute is Iran’s insistence that it has the right to enrich uranium and that economic sanctions should be lifted before it stops activities that could lead to its achieving the capability to make nuclear weapons.

Western powers insist Tehran must first shut down enrichment activities before sanctions can be eased.

But both sides have powerful reasons not to abandon diplomacy. The powers want to avert the danger of a new Middle East war raised by Israeli threats to bomb Iran, while Tehran also wants to avoid a looming Western ban on its oil exports.

After discussions in Baghdad extended late into an unscheduled second day on Thursday between envoys from Iran and the six powers, European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said it was clear both sides wanted progress and had some common ground, but significant differences remained.

“We will maintain intensive contacts with our Iranian counterparts to prepare a further meeting in Moscow,” she told a news conference in Baghdad.

The next meeting, the third in the latest round of talks that began in Istanbul last month, will be held in Moscow on June 18-19.

FULL ARTICLE (Reuters)

Photo: Freddy Moris/Wikimedia Commons