International Crisis Group
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The Libyan Political Agreement: Time for a Reset
Burned cars are piled along a dirt road in Benghazi, 19 July 2016. CRISIS GROUP/Claudia Gazzini
The UN-brokered peace process in Libya has stalled, leaving unresolved pressing issues like worsening living conditions, control of oil facilities, people-smuggling, and the struggle against jihadist groups. New negotiations are needed to engage key actors who have been excluded so far.
SOURCE: Crisis Group
Read full report here
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A Wake-up Call for Eritrea and Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s military probably knows that delivering a decisive blow against Eritrea may fatally damage the regime and risk (another) complicated civil war on its doorstep.
-Crisis Group’s Cedric Barnes in latest commentary, A Wake-up Call for Eritrea and Ethiopia
Source: Crisis Group
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“Peace deals with the two groups are therefore unlikely to be reached at the same time. Nonetheless, Colombia’s chances to have a sustainable peace-building process and end its half-century of armed conflict are much improved by the negotiations with the ELN. Despite the challenges, the prospect of signing agreements with both the FARC and ELN heralds great changes for this South American nation.” —Crisis Group’s Colombia Senior Analyst Kyle Johnson explains why the history of the ELN and its horizontal political structure make it such a unique negotiating actor
Source: Crisis Group
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“Nigeria’s military is in distress. Once among Africa’s strongest and a mainstay of regional peacekeeping, it has become a flawed force.” —Crisis Group’s latest report, Nigeria: The Challenge of Military Reform
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“In short, the Kurdish political landscape is no less fractured than the region around it. Iraqi Kurdistan may have ended its economic dependence on Baghdad but any notion it harbors of breaking away from Iraq can never amount to more than quasi-independence—shibeh istiqlaal in Arabic—as an opposition leader put it, as long as the region, floating on a sea of corruption and adrift in economic misery, lacks the economic resources, military power, and international recognition it would need.” —Joost Hiltermann, Chief Operating Officer of International Crisis Group, comments on the plight of the Kurds in The New York Review of Books
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How likely is international military intervention in Libya?
After Iraq and Syria, will international military intervention against the Islamic State group now take place in conflict-ridden Libya as well?
Western powers including the United States, Britain and France are openly considering such a move, but appear reluctant to act without a government of national unity in place.
FULL ARTICLE (Via Yahoo News)
Photo: AFP/Abdullah Doma
SOURCE: AFP
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The Myanmar Elections: Results and Implications
The 8 November elections were a major waypoint in Myanmar’s transition from authoritarian rule. Holding a peaceful, orderly vote in a context of little experience of electoral democracy, deep political fissures and ongoing armed conflict in several areas was a major achievement for all political actors, the election commission and the country as a whole. The victorious National League for Democracy (NLD) needs to use the four-month transitional period before it takes power at the end of March 2016 wisely, identifying key appointees early so that they have as much time as possible to prepare for the substantial challenges ahead.
FULL BRIEFING (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun
Source: Crisis Group
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Peacekeeping and geopolitics in the 21st century | Jean-Marie Guéhenno
Jean-Marie Guéhenno is the president of the International Crisis Group and long serving head of UN Peacekeeping. He comes from an interesting background–his father was a well known French intellectual whose experience in World War I made him a pacifist. In this episode, Guéhenno discusses his experiences as the top French foreign policy planning official during the fall of the Berlin Wall; what it was like have Kofi Annan interview you for a job; and the future challenges facing international peacekeeping.
Guéhenno is out with a new book that details these experiences and more. The Fog of Peace: A Memoir of International Peacekeeping in the 21st Century was published this month by Brookings Press. Guéhenno is a true scholar practitioner. This is a great episode.
FULL INTERVIEW (via Global Dispatches)
Photo: Crisis Group
Source: Global Dispatches
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Raising the Stakes In the South China Sea | Yanmei Xie
A risky game of chicken is building up between China and the U.S. in the South China Sea.
In the most recent development, it was reported that the Pentagon is considering a proposal to dispatch its navy for a close-up view of the man-made islands China is building there.
This follows the failure of Washington’s verbal protests to slow China’s reclamation activities, which have turned reefs into man-made features capable of hosting airstrips and military garrisons and stoked regional anxiety about Beijing’s intentions.
FULL COMMENTARY (via In Pursuit of Peace)
Photo: Official U.S. Navy Page/Flickr
Source: In Pursuit of Peace
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A Coup Ordained? Thailand’s prospects for stability
Bangkok/Brussels | 3 Dec 2014
Martial law has brought calm but not peace to Thailand’s febrile politics. The military regime’s stifling of dissent precludes a frank dialogue on the kingdom’s future and could lead to greater turmoil than that which brought about the May 2014 coup.
A nine-year cycle of popular protests followed by military and judicial interventions to oust elected governments has left the country deeply polarised. The 22 May military coup brought an end to sometimes violent street protests but not to political uncertainty: equipped with absolute power, the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) quashes dissent and remains vague about the timeline for a return to electoral democracy. The International Crisis Group’s latest report, A Coup Ordained? Thailand’s Prospects for Stability, examines the conflict’s underlying causes and warns that, by curbing the power of elected representatives in favour of appointed officials, the coup makers risk yet another round of violent conflict.
The report’s major findings and recommendations are:
- The 22 May coup demonstrated the failure of the 2006 coup and subsequent governments to address the factors underpinning Thailand’s protracted conflict. More than ever, the society is riven across regional, ethnic and quasi-ideological lines, by deep income inequality and by a difficult relationship between Bangkok and its peripheries.
- At the heart of the turmoil is not only a political struggle but disagreement over what constitutes legitimate authority, with some regarding the popular ballot as paramount and others regarding majoritarianism as another form of tyranny, requiring strong checks and balances by the establishment. In the background, a looming royal succession – prohibited by law from being discussed – adds to the uncertainty.
- To achieve its stated goal of establishing a durable democracy, the NCPO must encourage the development of a national dialogue, provide for meaningful political participation of all and reach out particularly to those in the North and North East who believe they have been serially disenfranchised by the Bangkok establishment. Failure to do so risks an eventual clash between the army and protesters, such as those that resulted from the 1991 and 2006 coups.
“The military’s apparent prescription, the deliberate weakening of elected leaders in favour of unelected institutions, is more likely to bring conflict than cohesion” says Matthew Wheeler, South East Asia Analyst. “It will deepen divisions while doing further damage to the institutions best suited to safeguard the rights of political minorities, root out corruption and resolve social conflict”.
“Thai society is both deeply divided and – now – accustomed to having a political voice”, says Jonathan Prentice, Chief Policy Officer and Acting Asia Program Director. “Stability will remain elusive unless Thailand forges a political path in which all Thais respect the majority vote and see their own concerns acknowledged”.