International Crisis Group
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“Washington’s show of resolve and force has to be complemented by efforts to shore up ASEAN’s institutional capacity and capability. It has to ensure its actions support ASEAN’s leadership but not replace it.” —Yanmei Xie, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst, China, tells dpa international referring to the Association of South-East Asian Nations
Source: dpa international
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Thailand Looks to Restart Southern Peace Talks, Despite Little Progress | Ron Corben
Thai authorities say they are prepared to resume talks with Muslim insurgent groups. The negotiations, which are expected to take place in Malaysia next month, have so far shown few signs of progress. Nonetheless, analysts say the prospect of a new round of talks marks a new stage in the insurgency.
This week, Thailand’s National Security Council called for a fresh round of talks to follow up on negotiations that started in February aimed at laying the groundwork for dialogue.
FULL ARTICLE (Voice of America)
Photo: quite peculiar/Flickr
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Thai PM Yingluck may seek Malaysia’s help on insurgency | Reuters
By Amy Sawitta Lefevre
Thai authorities say the attacks in the south are organized by the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) Coordinate, an offshoot of the Patani Malay National Revolutionary Front established in the 1960s to seek greater autonomy.
Some within the military and government remain suspicious of Malaysia, accusing it of providing a refuge for insurgents.
“It’s encouraging that the Thai government is working seriously on establishing dialogue. But there are doubts about whether Malaysia can play a productive role as mediator,” said Matthew Wheeler, a Southeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group.
Photo: World Economic Forum/Flickr
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Sidney Jones, Crisis Group’s Asia Program Senior Adviser, talks to the Lowy Institute for International Policy about Malaysian elections in this video
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“The opposition, campaigning on issues that transcend ethnicity, such as transparency, social justice and electoral reform, is finding support in the Malay middle class in a way that has forced Barisan to address many of the same issues.” — from today’s media release for our latest report, Malaysia’s Coming Election: Beyond Communalism? -
“Both sides are using images of the Arab Spring, with Barisan warning of chaos if it is not returned to power and the opposition predicting popular unrest unless political change comes faster.” — Sidney Jones, Senior Adviser to Crisis Group’s Asia Program, on our latest report, Malaysia’s Coming Election: Beyond Communalism? -
“Demographic and social change, easing of authoritarian controls, a growing civil society and economic uncertainty are shaking the communal foundations of Malaysian politics and making the outcome of its coming election unusually unpredictable.” — from Malaysia’s Coming Election: Beyond Communalism?, the latest report from the International Crisis Group. -
Malaysia’s Coming Election: Beyond Communalism?
Jakarta/Brussels | 1 Oct 2012
Demographic and social change, easing of authoritarian controls, a growing civil society and economic uncertainty are shaking the communal foundations of Malaysian politics and making the outcome of its coming election unusually unpredictable.
Malaysia’s Coming Election: Beyond Communalism?, the new report from the International Crisis Group, examines the political landscape ahead of the thirteenth general election that will likely be called later this year or early next. More than ever before, there is a chance – though a very small one – that the world’s longest-serving elected political coalition, the National Front (Barisan Nasional), could face defeat at the polls, despite the way the political deck is stacked against the opposition.
“Both sides are using images of the Arab Spring, with Barisan warning of chaos if it is not returned to power and the opposition predicting popular unrest unless political change comes faster”, says Sidney Jones, Senior Adviser to the Crisis Group Asia Program. “While these warnings are almost certainly overdrawn, there is no doubt that Malaysia is changing, and no one is sure what direction it will take”.
Barisan has based its longevity on giving preferential status to the country’s majority Malays in exchange for guarantees to the Chinese and Indian minorities of security and economic growth. The opposition, campaigning on issues that transcend ethnicity, such as transparency, social justice and electoral reform, is finding support in the Malay middle class in a way that has forced Barisan to address many of the same issues. Prime Minister Najib, Barisan’s leader who remains personally popular, has been presiding over a slow process of political liberalisation, amending, revoking or replacing some of the laws that for decades placed tight curbs on civil liberties. Conservatives in his own party, led by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed, warn that these reforms will lead to anarchy; opposition leaders call them too little, too late.
The outcome of the election could hinge on several factors: developments in the two eastern states of Sabah and Sarawak, on Borneo, that control a quarter of the seats in parliament; the ability of the opposition to maintain a united front; the impact of a series of corruption scandals linked to senior government officials; the impact of Barisan’s ability to dole out economic favours to strategic constituencies; and the state of the economy at the time elections are finally called.
“With a loosening of Mahathir-era controls, political space will widen not just for the champions of civil rights and racial equality, but also for hardline civil society, whether ultranationalist or Islamist”, says Jim Della-Giacoma, Crisis Group’s South East Asia Project Director. “The question Malaysians need to answer on election day is which of the two coalitions will be better able to handle those pressures while moving the country toward greater openness”.
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Nations at Impasse Over South China Sea, Group Warns | New York Times
By Jane Perlez
The intensifying disputes between China and four of its Southeast Asian neighbors over claims in the South China Sea have begun to raise warnings over the prospect of open conflict.
The disputes, enmeshed in the competition for energy resources, have reached an impasse, according to a report by the International Crisis Group, a research organization that has become a leading authority on the frictions.
Photo: Voice of America/ Wikimedia Commons
