International Crisis Group
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“The speed that Istanbul airport got back up and running symbolises the resilience of a country accustomed to crisis and conflict. But this comes after several years in which several pillars of Turkish prosperity have been badly damaged…In short, Turkey will need all the hardiness it can muster to withstand the new front IS has opened against it.” -
In the village of Agachaul, Dagestan, women wait for a family house to be blown-up by security services as a punishment for their son being member of the insurgency.
Women in the Russian republic of Chechnya have never been under such pressure as they are today. Yet not much has been written about their role, their place in society, and their rights in Chechnya and in other North Caucasus conflicts.
Image Source: Crisis Group/Varvara Pakhomenko
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“The Russian government should invest in a consistent effort to guarantee equal protection of women not only in Chechnya, but also in Dagestan and Ingushetia. Among other measures, Russian authorities should improve maternal and social services, effectively investigate gender-based violence to combat impunity, and devise effective gendered de-radicalisation strategies. The women of the North Caucasus deserve at least the same level of protection as those in other parts of Russian territory.” —Crisis Group’s Ekaterina Sokirianskaia comments on Women in the North Caucasus Conflicts: An Under-reported Plight
Source: Crisis Group
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CrisisWatch N°154 is now out, looking at trends for May and the outlook for June
The month saw Venezuela’s political, economic and humanitarian crisis worsen amid heightened tensions between the government and opposition, a situation which could lead to state collapse and regional destabilisation. Another major setback in electing a new president in Haiti prompted fears of further civil unrest. In West Africa, deadly violence in central Mali and south-east Nigeria spiked, while a power struggle in Guinea-Bissau led to a dangerous standoff. In Libya, factions for and against the fledgling Government of National Accord (GNA) advanced on Sirte to expel the Islamic State (IS), risking clashes over oil facilities, while Turkey saw heightened political polarisation and an increase in violence in Kurdish areas. Ongoing peace talks, despite slow progress and ongoing violence, remain the best chance to end major combat in Yemen.
Source: Crisis Group
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Iraq: On the Edge of Chaos
The recent storming of Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone by protesters led by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr brought to the surface a long-standing dilemma: the system which has governed the country since 2003 is in need of radical reform, but because the ruling political class has in many ways come to embody the system, it is highly resistant to genuine change. Street protests and recalcitrant politicians have created a combustible formula, paralysing state institutions and threatening to bring them down. Meanwhile, the security situation is dire, as evidenced by a series of attacks in Baghdad this week claimed by the Islamic State.
FULL COMMENTARY (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: REUTERS/Ahmed Saad
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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Yemen: Is Peace Possible?
Yemen’s outlook is bleak. It is crucial that the opposing blocs and their regional allies commit to a political process to resolve the conflict, but there is no end in sight. The immediate priority should be an agreement on humanitarian aid and commercial goods for areas where civilians are under siege.
FULL REPORT (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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To the Islamic State and Back
The Russian republic of Dagestan has since 2009 been the epicentre of insurgent activity in the North Caucasus. Last year, however, violence diminished at an astonishing speed, and in 2014 the conflict caused 54 per cent less victims than in 2013. One reason is that hundreds of the 2,400 Russian citizens thought to be fighting in Syria left from Dagestan. The figure is an official estimate, with most joining the Islamic State (IS) or groups associated with Jabhat al-Nusra; the real number is probably higher. In addition to the jihadis, many young women and widows of insurgents also made the so-called hijra (sacred migration) into “the lands of Caliphate”.
FULL BLOG POST (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: CRISIS GROUP/Varvara Pakhomenko
Source: Crisis Group
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What the War on Islamic State Means for Syria
Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in Syria face long odds. At a second round of international talks in Vienna on 14 November, just one day after the Paris attacks, members of the International Syria Support Group agreed to convene talks with Syrian government and opposition representatives by 1 January. The peace talks are to be held under the auspices of the UN. In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s senior analyst on Syria, Noah Bonsey, looks at the complex military and political dynamics at play.
FULL Q&A (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: REUTERS/Stringer
Source: Crisis Group
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Police Commander From Tajikistan Appears in ISIS Video | Andrew Roth
A senior police commander from Tajikistan who vanished last month has reappeared in an online video, saying he had defected to join the Islamic State group in Syria.
The development on Thursday raised concerns of growing extremism in Tajikistan, a former Soviet republic that Russia supports as a bulwark against militant Islamism.
FULL ARTICLE (via The New York Times)
Photo: erikenmieke /Flickr
Source: The New York Times
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Statement on a Syrian Policy Framework
On its current trajectory, and with no military or diplomatic breakthrough on the horizon, the Syrian war will worsen. Four years into a popular uprising that gradually degenerated into civil strife and regional proxy war, the conflict’s Syrian protagonists – the regime and its loyalist militias versus the broad spectrum of armed rebel factions and the external political opposition – are too fractious, fragile and heavily invested in their current courses to break with the status quo. They are also, as should be clear by now, incapable of military victory in a war rapidly fuelling the growth of a third category of protagonists: Salafi-jihadi groups. The sides’ respective state backers are better positioned to change tack and so affect the course of events, but they are prisoners of their own shortcomings, fears and wishful thinking.
Photo : REUTERS/Bassam Khabieh
Source : Crisis Group