International Crisis Group
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Uzbekistan: In Transition
Islam Karimov’s death creates uncertainty, first for Uzbekistan but also for neighbours and major powers, all with strong interest in the strategic state’s stability. The transition’s first stage has been smooth. Shavkat Mirziyoyev, prime minister since 2003, has emerged as the main leader, expected to be elected president on 4 December. However, he will inherit an authoritarian state with pressing economic and social issues, environmental concerns, unpredictable neighbours and a jihadist extremism threat. The ruling elite will want to preserve the status quo if it can, though Uzbekistan’s governance system is deplorable for most Uzbeks. Russia, China, the U.S. and Europe, each from its own perspective, wish to avoid unmanaged upsets. But all should use the transition to recalculate how best to preserve long-term stability and recalibrate relations with Uzbekistan. They should offer cooperation in practical areas benefiting the population while highlighting need for meaningful reforms; departure from abusive practices; and long-term consequences if the incoming leadership continue to run a police state.