International Crisis Group

President Kabila’s attempt to stay in power beyond his second and last constitutionally-permitted term, which concludes on 19 December, is unravelling more than a decade of progress.  In our new briefing, we take a look at the current political context in DRC, and suggest ways to reduce the potential for urban violence in the coming months.

Image Source: AFP/Mustafa Mulopwe

Source: Crisis Group 

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The peaceful election in March 2015 of President Muhammadu Buhari, a former army general, raised hopes that some of Nigeria’s most pressing security problems could soon be tamed. One year later, the new government has struck at the Islamist Boko Haram insurgency. But Nigeria is sliding deeper into other difficulties.

FULL COMMENTARY (Via Crisis Group)

Photo: Anadolu Agency/Stringer

SOURCE: Crisis Group

The unexpected chance for lasting peace and reconciliation in Sri Lanka that followed President Maithripala Sirisena’s January 2015 election faces increasing turbulence. Initial moves by Sirisena’s government halted and began to reverse the slide into authoritarianism and family rule under Mahinda Rajapaksa. Its reform agenda is ambitious: restoring the rule-of-law and ending impunity for corruption and abuse of power; a new constitution; a complex package of post-war reconciliation and justice mechanisms agreed with the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC); and major policy changes to jump-start a beleaguered economy. Progress, however, has been slower than key constituencies expected and lacks the coherence and resources needed to sustain it. The “national unity” government expanded the political centre and isolated hard-line nationalists, but the window for change has begun to close. Seizing Sri Lanka’s unprecedented opportunity for reform requires bolder and better coordinated policies, backed by a public relations campaign to restore sagging popular support.

FULL REPORT (Via Crisis Group)

Photo: REUTERS/Dinuka Liyanawatte

SOURCE: Crisis Group

Ahead of Chad’s presidential election on 10 April popular discontent is rising amid a major economic crisis, growing intra-religious tensions and deadly Boko Haram attacks. The regime that portrays itself as spearheading the fight against regional jihadism could see all sorts of violent actors gain influence at home if it pursues exclusionary politics and denies its people a viable social contract.

FULL REPORT (Via Crisis Group)

Photo: AFP/Philippe Desmazes

SOURCE: Crisis Group

For the first time since 1999, Venezuela’s revolutionary socialist regime faces an opposition parliament. But rather than seeking some form of “cohabitation” with its political adversaries, the government has chosen the path of outright confrontation, raising once again the prospect of serious political violence in this nation of 30 million people.

FULL BLOG POST (Via Crisis Group)

Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins

Source: Crisis Group

Roch Marc Christian Kaboré’s victory in the 29 November presidential election shows that Burkinabes aspire as much to change as to continuity. A former heir apparent to Blaise Compaoré, Kaboré symbolises both the stability of the former regime and, given his split from Compaoré, the desire for change. The new government must deliver on many challenges: major socio-economic needs, demands for justice, the fight against corruption and impunity, army reform and growing regional threats. The government will have to refrain from triumphalism, recognise the formidable challenges ahead and, most importantly, resist the temptation to recreate a Compaoré-like system of one-party hegemony. Without this, Burkinabes will massively return to the streets, as in October 2014 and September 2015, which could plunge the country back into crisis.

FULL REPORT (Via Crisis Group)

Photo:  REUTERS/Joe Penney

Source: Crisis Group

Thailand’s military regime promised a return to democracy, but keeps prolonging its power by delaying general elections. Beyond a new constitution, Thailand needs a new social contract to resolve the crippling struggle between elected politicians and an unelected establishment that includes the army, bureaucracy and palace.

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Photo:  REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

Source: Crisis Group

The 8 November elections were a major waypoint in Myanmar’s transition from authoritarian rule. Holding a peaceful, orderly vote in a context of little experience of electoral democracy, deep political fissures and ongoing armed conflict in several areas was a major achievement for all political actors, the election commission and the country as a whole. The victorious National League for Democracy (NLD) needs to use the four-month transitional period before it takes power at the end of March 2016 wisely, identifying key appointees early so that they have as much time as possible to prepare for the substantial challenges ahead.

FULL BRIEFING (Via Crisis Group)

Photo:  REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

Source: Crisis Group

This Sunday, 6 December, Venezuelans went to the polls to elect all 167 members of the country’s National Assembly (Parliament), who will be sworn in on 5 January 2016. Government and opposition went head to head in an increasingly polarised atmosphere and at a critical juncture for Venezuela, which is facing enormous economic and social challenges. Although this was not a presidential election and did not imply a possible change of government, the poll has the air of a plebiscite on the government of President Nicolás Maduro. Crisis Group is in Caracas to make an independent assessment of the electoral process and will publish a detailed report next week.

FULL BLOG POST (Via Crisis Group)

Photo: CRISIS GROUP/ Sofía Martínez

Source: Crisis Group

Venezuela’s parliamentary election campaign kicked off on 13 November, accompanied by intimidating rhetoric from the government, which recent polls show is trailing by over 30 points, and a series of armed attacks on opposition campaign events that have already cost one life and are a worrying sign that more violence could come.

FULL BLOG POST (Via Crisis Group)

Photo: AFP/Juan Barreto

Source: Crisis Group