International Crisis Group
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The Libyan Political Agreement: Time for a Reset
Burned cars are piled along a dirt road in Benghazi, 19 July 2016. CRISIS GROUP/Claudia Gazzini
The UN-brokered peace process in Libya has stalled, leaving unresolved pressing issues like worsening living conditions, control of oil facilities, people-smuggling, and the struggle against jihadist groups. New negotiations are needed to engage key actors who have been excluded so far.
SOURCE: Crisis Group
Read full report here
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Myanmar’s Peace Process: Getting to a Political Dialogue
Image Source: AFP/Ye Aung THU
The current government term may be the best chance for a negotiated political settlement to almost 70 years of armed conflict that has devastated the lives of minority communities and held back Myanmar as a whole. Aung San Suu Kyi and her administration have made the peace process a top priority. While the previous government did the same, she has a number of advantages, such as her domestic political stature, huge election mandate and strong international backing, including qualified support on the issue from China. These contributed to participation by nearly all armed groups – something the former government had been unable to achieve – in the Panglong-21 peace conference that commenced on 31 August. But if real progress is to be made, both the government and armed groups need to adjust their approach so they can start a substantive political dialogue as soon as possible.
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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Insights from the Burundian Crisis (III): Back to Arusha and the Politics of Dialogue
When Burundians, and international mediators, finally meet in Arusha, they must remember the lessons of the last hard-won peace process more than a decade ago. The root causes of conflict in Burundi are political, not ethnic, and cannot be resolved by force. Compromise will be necessary, since neither the government nor the opposition have the means to win a definitive victory. Pursuing maximalist positions will only mean more hardship and bloodshed, which will further erode the real progress in reconciliation made since 2000. Genuine dialogue, addressing not only immediate problems but also fundamental political differences is needed to resolve the current crisis and chart a peaceful future for the country.
Source: Crisis Group
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Burundi: A Dangerous Third Term
One year after President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to run for a third term sparked the crisis, the situation remains critical. The radicalisation of the regime, which had been steadily increasing since the second post-conflict elections in 2010 and intensified by tensions over the third term in 2015, has seen the rise of the most hard-line leaders of the ruling party. These figures are determined to do away with the institutional system established by the Arusha accord – an agreement between Hutu and Tutsi elites in 2000 which put in place an ethnic quota system for state institutions, including the army, and established a two-term presidential limit. This political strategy to dismantle the accord and the return of violent rhetoric and tactics reminiscent of the civil war, have generated great fear within Burundian society – which, although deeply alarmed, has not yet given in to politicians’ tactics of inciting ethnic hatred. With the government and opposition invited to meet in Tanzania on 21 May, it is imperative that the guarantors of the Arusha accord call on them to engage in a meaningful dialogue on the future of the peace agreement and avoid a repeat of the country’s tragic past.
FULL REPORT (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: REUTERS/Evrard Ngendakumana
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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CAR: The time for hard questions | Thierry Vircoulon
The violent events at the beginning of October in Central African Republic – the public murders and clashes in the capital, Bangui; the less publicised killings across the nearly ungoverned countryside (an area greater than that of France); the raids along the CAR-Cameroon border – are symptoms of the breakdown of the international community’s security arrangements and of CAR’s interim government itself.
The international focus has understandably been on Bangui, where the transitional government is located. The October clashes made clear that the disarmament efforts by France’s Operation Sangaris have had little effect. Everyone has guns, including citizens simply hoping to protect themselves. Urban insecurity is rife, making it easy to spark a riot. In charge of peacekeeping since 15 September, the United Nations mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) took its first deadly casualty and is clearly struggling to control the capital, let alone the country.
Bangui’s insecurity exacerbates that of the transitional government; some of the more serious fighting of the past two weeks was just outside interim president Catherine Samba-Panza’s residence. Following the Brazzaville summit at the end of July, the government has so far been unable to guide intercommunity dialogue or to initiate the national consultation as planned. Recent accusations against President Samba-Panza of misdirection of funds from Angola have further weakened her government, which is reaching the dangerous point of being considered by some to be part of the problem rather than of the solution.
FULL ARTICLE (In Pursuit of Peace - Crisis Group Blog)
Photo by International Crisis Group
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Check out our new multimedia presentation, Justicia transicional y los diálogos de paz en Colombia, on transitional justice in Colombia.
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Nicosia/Istanbul/Brussels | 2 Apr 2012
Though newly discovered gas reserves off Cyprus are currently driving the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities further apart, they could offer both newfound wealth if, together with Turkey, they would agree to start a new dialogue about exploiting and transporting this find.
Aphrodite’s Gift: Can Cypriot Gas Power a New Dialogue? , the latest International Crisis Group report, examines rising hostility in the eastern Mediterranean since Greek Cypriots unilaterally began drilling in hydrocarbon reserves off the southern coast in September 2011 and found the large Aphrodite field. Turkey responded with tough criticism, naval manoeuvres threatening exploration operations, and agreements with Turkish Cypriots to exploit hydrocarbons around the island.
Ideally, a comprehensive settlement to reunify the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot communities would end the increasingly dangerous tit-for-tat in the eastern Mediterranean.
“The gas discovery could be the locomotive for reunification, but unilateral developments will make a negotiated settlement even more difficult, further raise tensions and shatter hopes of future security and stability around the island”, says Didem Akyel Collinsworth, Crisis Group’s Turkey/Cyprus Analyst.
An overall settlement to the Cyprus conflict seems as elusive as ever with UN-mediated talks showing no progress. Significant gas revenues may be a decade away, and exploiting the gas in the context of the unresolved Cyprus dispute will drive up costs and scare away investment from major oil companies.
As gas exploration continues, the parties should take independent confidence-building steps to seek mutual advantage and reduce tensions. Both sides on the island should agree to share revenues from any hydrocarbon exploitation and establish an advisory committee to discuss joint use and distribution. Turks and Turkish Cypriots should avoid aggravating tensions and abstain from taking actions inside Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
“A joint approach to eastern Mediterranean natural gas exploitation would ensure benefits for all, while unilateral moves mean lower profits, tensions and delays that could crush current projects”, says Hugh Pope, Crisis Group’s Turkey/Cyprus Project Director. “And it is a Cyprus settlement, not far-away gas revenues, that can provide a quick and real economic bonanza for all”.
To this end, Ankara should reverse its policy of categorically refusing to engage Greek Cypriot officials, even if it does not recognise them as representing the whole island, and agree to enter into a dialogue to defend its claims in the eastern Mediterranean. A gas pipeline project to Turkey may convince Ankara of its interest in cooperating with Greek Cypriots, who should abandon their preconditions. Turkey must also adopt a long-term strategy that ends threats and reassures Greek Cypriots that it truly aims for a Cyprus settlement, normalisation and a withdrawal of Turkish troops.
“The main parties are trapped by their own long-standing national myths about the Cyprus problem and the belief that the other side does not want a deal”, says Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group’s Europe Program Director. “The only way to escape this vicious circle in which everyone has been missing opportunities for so long is to learn each others’ true positions through dialogue”.