International Crisis Group

Thailand’s military regime promised a return to democracy, but keeps prolonging its power by delaying general elections. Beyond a new constitution, Thailand needs a new social contract to resolve the crippling struggle between elected politicians and an unelected establishment that includes the army, bureaucracy and palace.

FULL REPORT (Via Crisis Group)

Photo:  REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

Source: Crisis Group

Chris Patten’s contribution to the Future of Conflict collection of 20 essays for Crisis Group’s 20th Anniversary.

The crystal ball is cracked; the sources are thin; the extrapolations dubious. But it is not much easier to remember our recent history, nor to work out what exactly has been going on. The closer we are to the past, the more opaquely past it seems.

FULL ESSAY (Via Crisis Group)

Photo: MAGNUM/Jerome Sessini

Source: Crisis Group

Somaliland’s clan-based democracy has consolidated a state-like authority, kept the peace and attracted donors. But the territory now needs to reform its political bodies, judicial institutions and international engagements to protect itself from continued fragility in neighbouring Somalia – which rejects Somaliland’s independence claims – and civil war in nearby Yemen.

FULL BRIEFING (Via Crisis Group)

Photo:  AFP/ PETE CHONKA

Source: Crisis Group

Five takeaways from the Turkish election | Nigar Göksel and Hugh Pope

Turkey voted on Sunday. The results are eye-catching, and certainly worth parsing for a world that awaits explanation. Here are five quick conclusions for a wide audience.

1.       After 12 years in power, the tide has turned against Erdoğan

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s apparently unstoppable rise hit a democratic bumper in Turkey’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, despite his presiding over 12 mostly boom years at the top of Turkey’s political system and the fact that his party won more than 40 percent of the vote.

FULL ARTICLE (via Politico)

Photo :  scrolleditorial /Flickr

Source: Politico

Splintered Nigeria needs a shared vision | Nnamdi Obasi

As President Muhammadu Buhari assumes office this week, he takes the reins of a country in serious distress. Security poses a towering challenge, the economy is in dire straits, and corruption and impunity are rife.

Buhari, who won the election on the promise of change must now make good on that promise and start by rallying Nigerians around what they have lost: a common vision for the future.

FULL ARTICLE (via Mail & Guardian)

Photo: Nigeria News/ Flickr

Source: Mail & Guardian

Nepal’s Political Faultlines| Anagha Neelakantan

Nepal’s people live a constant struggle to accumulate some insulation from the hardships and arbitrariness of life. They contend with a challenging landscape of hills, high mountains and plains threatened by dangerous rivers, capricious weather, an immutable bureaucracy and treacherous politics. It often takes just a little thing to tip the balance against survival.

FULL COMMENTARY (via In Pursuit of Peace)

Photo: REUTERS/Navesh Chitrakar

Source: In Pursuit of Peace

Congo: Is Democratic Change Possible?

The presidential and legislative polls scheduled for 2016 are a potential watershed for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC); they could be the first elections held without an incumbent protecting his position. The prospect of these elections is testing nerves on all sides of the Congolese political spectrum and has already caused deadly violence. There is an urgent need for President Joseph Kabila to commit to the two-term limit contained within the constitution and ready himself to leave power. Consensus is also needed on key electoral decisions, in particular regarding the calendar and the voter roll. This will require high-level donor and international engagement. Absent agreement and clarity on the election process, or should there be significant delays, international partners should review their support to the government.

FULL REPORT (via Crisis Group)

Photo: Ruling party PPRD victory rally in Kinshasa following Joseph Kabila’s re-election, 28 November 2011. Colin Delfosse

Source : Crisis Group

Elections in Burundi: Moment of Truth

The elections scheduled to take place between the end of May and August 2015 will be decisive for Burundi. The future of the present rulers (President Pierre Nkurunziza considers running for a third term) and, more importantly, the upholding of the 2000 Arusha agreement as the foundation for peace, are at stake. Popular protests and the precedent set by the fall of Burkina Faso’s president suggest street confrontations will take place if President Nkurunziza decides to impose his candidacy. The return to violence would not only end the peace progressively restored since the Arusha agreement, it would also have destabilising consequences in the region and mark a failure in peacebuilding. To avoid this scenario, Burundi’s partners, who have already expressed their concerns, should increase their involvement in the electoral process and prepare a gradual response depending on how inclusive the process will be.

FULL REPORT

Photo: REUTERS/ YVES HERMAN

Source: Crisis Group  

Guinea Needs Consensus on Poll Position if Election Race is to Pass Peacefully | Vincent Foucher

Guinea’s history of electoral violence may not be over. Tension is building around the presidential poll scheduled for this October and the local elections planned for early next year. The opposition – principally Cellou Dalein Diallo’s Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea and Sidya Touré’s Union of Republican Forces – is concerned about possible fraud. Threatened protests should be taken seriously: in 2013, about 100 people died during electoral unrest.

FULL ARTICLE (via The Guardian)

Photo: hpierre/Flickr 

Source: The Guardian

Women, Violence and Conflict in Pakistan

In Pakistan, women’s security and political, social and economic status are under attack by religious extremists, undermined by discriminatory legislation and unprotected by the state. The government must stand by its pledge to end gender inequity and violence against women, especially in the conflict zones of north-western Pakistan and the tribal belt bordering Afghanistan.

FULL REPORT

Photo :  AFP PHOTO/ARIF ALI

Source : Crisis Group