International Crisis Group

A special international Arbitral Tribunal established as part of the Dayton Peace Accords created the Brčko District in August 1999 (the “Final Award”), under the exclusive sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a multi-ethnic, democratic unit of local self-government. An international supervisor, who also serves as Deputy High Representative, was also appointed in 1997 to oversee implementation of the Dayton agreement in the Brčko area with executive authority to promulgate binding regulations and orders.

In 2009 the international community assessed that Brčko institutions were functioning effectively and apparently permanently, the main condition that had been set to enable closing down the special supervision. Since then additional conditions have been put mainly on the RS to demonstrate that it has no intention to usurp Brčko authority. The Serb entity is making no claim on the district, and apparently has formally fulfilled the final condition by acknowledging that the inter-entity boundary line (IEBL), which splits Bosnia’s two entities, does not run through Brčko.

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Yet, almost entirely missing is a sober assessment of the challenges provoked by these shifts and the very real risk that they could derail or even foreclose the possibility of a successful transition. In particular, five issues likely to shape events have been absent from the public debate:

• the fate of the Alawite community;
• the connection between Syria and Lebanon;
• the nature and implications of heightened international involvement;
• the long-term impact of the protest movement’s growing militarisation; and
• the legacy of creeping social, economic and institutional decay.

Many in Syria and abroad are now banking on the regime’s imminent collapse and wagering that all then will be for the better. That is a luxury and an optimism they cannot afford. Instead, it is high time to squarely confront and address the difficulties before it is too late. In the “draft political program” it released on 20 November, the Syrian National Council ‒ an opposition umbrella group – presented the image of an entirely peaceful movement enduring savage repression. The regime and its allies regularly describe the crisis solely as the local manifestation of a vicious regional and international struggle. The two black-and-white narratives are in every way contradictory and mutually exclusive. Both miss a central point: that successful management of this increasingly internationalised crisis depends on a clear-eyed understanding of the grey zone that lies between.

This briefing analyses and in its Conclusion presents recommendations for handling the pivotal issues.

Damascus/Brussels, 24 November 2011

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OVERVIEW

More than ten years after the formation of Timor-Leste’s army and the demobilisation of the guerrilla force that fought for independence, the struggle continues about how to pay tribute to the veterans. The increasingly wealthy state has bought off the threat once posed by most dissidents with an expensive cash benefits scheme and succeeded in engaging most veterans’ voices in mainstream politics. This approach has created a heavy financial burden and a complicated process of determining who is eligible that will create new tensions even as it resolves others. A greater challenge lies in containing pressures to give them disproportionate political influence and a formal security role. A careful balance will need to be struck between paying homage to heroes while allowing a younger generation of leaders to grow up to replace them. Failure could block the generational transfer of power necessary for the state’s long-term stability.

The question of who and how many qualify for veteran status remains both difficult and politically charged. The contributions of hundreds of fighters of the Forças Armadas de Libertação Nacional de Timor-Leste (Falintil), who comprised the armed front during the 24-year resistance to Indonesian occupation, are the most straightforward. A well-known and far smaller diplomatic front walked the corridors of the UN in New York and in capitals to ensure the outside world never forgot their struggle. As the resis­tance matured, a clandestine front emerged as an integral part of the struggle for independence, smuggling in supplies to the guerrillas, capturing media attention and frustrating Indonesian intelligence efforts. While this latter group was the most numerous, the contributions of many of these men and women remained unknown even to one another, as they worked in the shadows.

Since independence, complex arrays of commissions and laws have been formed to register and pay homage to this mostly undocumented movement. These efforts have increasingly focused on compensation with $72 million (6 per cent of the state budget) set aside for veterans’ benefits in 2011. While the promise of money has eased discontent among dissident former Falintil fighters, it has also brought a flood of apparently false claims of service, making any definitive list of veterans an unreachable goal. A decision to “reactivate resistance structures” to boost legitimacy has not solved the problem. Judgment on difficult cases has been deferred based on a belief that fraudulent claims will be revealed through denunciation once the lists are published. Even with the option to appeal, new discontent is being created that will require mediation.

Beyond cash benefits, there are two areas where veterans’ demands for greater influence will have to be checked. The first is the scope and shape of a proposed veterans’ council, whose primary role will be to consult on benefits as well as to offer a seal of institutional legitimacy. Some veterans hope it will be given an advisory dimension, allowing them to guide government policy and cementing their elite status. Such a broad role looks unlikely but the illusion that veterans might be given more influence has likely increased the government’s appeal in advance of elections next year. It could also serve as a useful bridge to dissident groups who have thus far stayed outside electoral politics.

The second decision is whether to give Falintil veterans a formal security role in defending the state. This appears most likely to come in the form of a military reserve force as foreseen in existing legislation. While a ceremonial role for Falintil would recognise the guerrilla army’s important legacy, the government should stop short of using veterans to constitute a formal reserve. The danger of arming them was made clear in the violence of the 2006 crisis, as they formed part of different opposing factions armed by state institutions. They were neither disciplined nor united, and added to the violence rather than controlled it.

The state still faces a difficult challenge in balancing veterans’ demands for recognition with efforts to promote strong and independent institutions. Only with the right balance will a shift in power be possible from the “Generation of ’75” that brought the country to independence and still holds onto power. Timorese politics and its security sector institutions remain held together by a small set of personalities rather than bound by legal rules. In a leadership environment marked by few real changes since before independence, the recent resignation of the armed forces chief, Taur Matan Ruak, may yet prove to be a big step towards generational succession. As the military’s leadership is now forced to evolve, so must the country’s politicians.

Donors have little role to play in influencing policy towards former combatants, but the challenges of the veterans’ pension system underscore the difficulty in designing cash transfer programs that are less susceptible to fraud. This is one area where outside technical help could be useful.

Dili/Jakarta/Brussels, 18 November 2011

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The impact of the 2010 earthquake on the infrastructure of an already overcrowded and inefficient system rendered a large number of courts inoperable. Those that have remained functional are understaffed and under-resourced. The lack of proper legal services for the poor majority and inefficient case management fuelled by financial, material and human resource constraints continue to generate extensive case backlog and overcrowded prisons. The number of detainees exceeds by a factor of six the prison capacity allowable by international standards. Lack of job security, supervision, adequate training and low salaries leave judges, prosecutors and other court personnel vulnerable to corruption. Executive and legislative interference, coupled with the sluggish pace of reform, has done little to convince the population that the political will exists for transformative change.

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Clashes on 11 September between Muslims and Christians in Ambon, capital of Maluku province, and sporadic incidents thereafter raised fears of a return to the communal fighting that wracked the region from 1999 to 2002. This time, an extraordinary effort by grassroots “peace provocateurs” and local officials largely kept the violence from spreading further in Maluku. But the unrest triggered efforts by extremists elsewhere to manipulate communal tensions, apparently motivating the bombing of a church in Solo, Central Java on 25 September.

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With the April 2011 general elections, Nigeria may have taken steps towards reversing the degeneration of its previous elections, but the work is not finished. Despite some progress, early and intensive preparations for the 2015 elections need to start now. Voter registration need not be as chaotic and expensive as it was this year if done on a continual basis. Far-reaching technical and administrative reforms of, and by, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), notably internal restructuring and constituency delineation, should be undertaken and accompanied by broad political and economic reforms that make the state more relevant to citizens and help guarantee an electoral and democratic future. The deadly post-presidential election violence in the North and bomb blasts by the Islamic fundamentalist Boko Haram sect since President Jonathan’s 29 May inauguration indicate the enormous challenges facing the new government. It must show more determination to contain violence in society. Addressing chronic poverty and the North’s underdevelopment – major grievances – would strengthen its hand.

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The long-simmering dispute over the Serb-held North of Kosovo has entered a dangerous phase. Serbia and Kosovo are raising tensions in the field despite making technical agreements at the negotiation table. On 2 September the EU brokered an agreement on customs stamps and cadastral records. Observers could conclude that the crisis started on 25 July at the border is now over. It is not. An important first step, the agreement says nothing about who will actually control the two disputed border posts and the customs revenue they generate. The real dispute is about the status of north Kosovo. Belgrade still believes it can partition Kosovo, keeping the Serb-inhabited north. Pristina is intent on asserting its practical sovereignty over its whole territory. Until the two work out a compromise the situation risks quick deterioration.

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Photo: giovanni.cobianchi/ Flickr

Haiti’s porous land and sea borders remain susceptible to drug trafficking, smuggling and other illegal activities that weaken the rule of law and deprive the state of vital revenue. Post-quake insecurity underscores continued vulnerability to violent crime and political instability. Overcrowded urban slums, plagued by deep poverty, limited economic opportunities and the weakness of government institutions, particularly the Haitian National Police (HNP), breed armed groups and remain a source of broader instability. If the Martelly administration is to guarantee citizen safety successfully, it must remove tainted officers and expand the HNP’s institutional and operational capacity across the country by completing a reform that incorporates community policing and violence reduction programs.

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