International Crisis Group
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Landmark South China Sea Ruling Could Revive Negotiations
An international tribunal has issued a sweeping ruling against China in a landmark case brought by the Philippines over disputed claims in the South China Sea. Beijing rejected the ruling, but the judgment’s legal clarity could ultimately provide the basis of a better, durable, negotiated outcome for the many parties involved.
Source: Crisis Group
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“China wants to press the Philippines to downplay future tribunal decisions. Its bottom line is that countries outside the region, like the United States and Japan, not get involved” —Xie Yanmei, senior China analyst at International Crisis Group tells South China Morning Post on the South China Sea: Hague case
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Avoiding a Military Showdown in the South China Sea
In the coming weeks, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague is expected to rule on a challenge to China’s extensive maritime claims in the South China Sea. The court is unlikely to decide in Beijing’s favor. But China has already refused to participate, calling the process “illegal,” and has pre-emptively rejected the judgement of the court.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
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China backs U.N. move to denounce Korea over nuclear test
BEIJING — Secretary of State John F. Kerry and China’s foreign minister agreed Wednesday to move ahead with a U.N. resolution condemning North Korea for its latest nuclear test, but they appeared as far apart as ever on how far to push Pyongyang.
The United States says any additional U.N. action against the North is likely to include expanded sanctions. Beijing, a key ally of North Korea’s, expressed anger at the nuclear test this month but has not indicated whether it will endorse further pressure.
FULL ARTICLE (Via The Washington Post)
Photo: Wikimedia
SOURCE: The Washington Post
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Raising the Stakes In the South China Sea | Yanmei Xie
A risky game of chicken is building up between China and the U.S. in the South China Sea.
In the most recent development, it was reported that the Pentagon is considering a proposal to dispatch its navy for a close-up view of the man-made islands China is building there.
This follows the failure of Washington’s verbal protests to slow China’s reclamation activities, which have turned reefs into man-made features capable of hosting airstrips and military garrisons and stoked regional anxiety about Beijing’s intentions.
FULL COMMENTARY (via In Pursuit of Peace)
Photo: Official U.S. Navy Page/Flickr
Source: In Pursuit of Peace
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For the U.S. and China, a Test of Diplomacy on South Sudan | Somini Sengupta
UNITED NATIONS — The United States may have midwifed the birth of South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation. But China has quickly become among its most important patrons, building its roads and pumping its oil.
Now, more than a year after South Sudan’s leaders plunged their country into a nasty civil war, the nation has become something of a test of diplomacy between the United States and China, raising the question: Can Washington and Beijing turn their mutual interests in South Sudan into a shared strategy to stop the bloodshed?
To pressure the warring sides toward peace, the United States has circulated a draft Security Council resolution, dangling the threat of sanctions and setting up the possibility of an arms embargo somewhere down the road. The measure could come up for a vote as early as Tuesday.
FULL ARTICLE (via the New York Times)
Photo: UN Photo/Paul Banks
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“The cost of sustaining the Kim regime may have increased and the benefits may have declined. But the calculation remains that the potential consequences of cutting Pyongyang loose are unacceptable.” — Daniel Pinkston, Crisis Group’s Deputy Project Director for North East Asia, TIME -
Last week, Crisis Group’s Report Fire on the City Gate: Why China Keeps North Korea Close was featured in the Council of Foreign Relations Must Read List! You can check out the full report here!
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Central Asia: China Flexes Political and Economic Muscle | Joanna Lillis
Chinese President Xi Jinping is wrapping up a 10-day tour through Central Asia, having vacuumed up energy resources while digging into Beijing’s deep pockets to dispense largess and generate goodwill.
Xi’s visit to four Central Asian states (excluding Tajikistan) has reaffirmed Beijing’s rising clout in this energy-rich region, situated on China’s sensitive Western flank. Central Asian leaders – Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev; Kyrgyzstan’s Almazbek Atambayev; Turkmenistan’s Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov; and Uzbekistan’s Islam Karimov – welcomed Xi with open arms and barely a backward glance at Moscow, the region’s traditional colonial overlord. Russian leader Vladimir Putin has worked assiduously to try to prevent Central Asia’s tilt toward China, but Xi’s tour showed that Russia lacks the economic weapons to counter Beijing’s diplomacy in the region.
FULL ARTICLE (Euraisanet)
Photo: David Strakopf/Flickr
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Pondering Pyongyang: Beijing’s problem child | CNN
By Kristie Lu Stout
After the United Nations slapped tougher sanctions on North Korea after its third nuclear test in February this year, Pyongyang screamed in defiance. It canceled its hotline with South Korea, withdrew its workers from the Kaesong industrial complex it jointly operates with Seoul, and carried on with its over-the-top threats.
China may have backed those sanctions but the economic lifeline is still there. Trade goes on between North Korea and China. In 2011, before some of these trade embargoes began, China accounted for an estimated 67.2% of North Korea’s exports and 61.6% of imports, according to the CIA World Factbook.
“If you talk to officials at the border, there’s no change,” says Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, the North Asian head of the International Crisis Group.
Photo: adaptorplug/Flickr
