International Crisis Group
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Somalia: Why is Al-Shabaab Still A Potent Threat?
This year, the armed Islamist extremist group Al-Shabaab has notched up a series of bloody successes against both Somali targets and the African Union peace-enforcement mission AMISOM. Meanwhile, the international community has been busy cajoling principals of the Somali federal and state governments into agreeing on the means by which to hold new elections due in August. Despite four years of “post-transitional” government and a level of international engagement and foreign military presence not seen since the early 1990s, Somali politics remain dysfunctional and prone to violent disagreement – exactly the conditions in which Al-Shabaab thrives.
FULL BLOG POST (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: AFP PHOTO/Mohamed DAHIR
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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Somaliland’s Guurti Sparks a Crisis | Cedric Barnes & Claire Elder
The self-declared Republic of Somaliland – a de facto independent state formed from Somalia’s north-western regions – is often described as an island of stability in a sea of conflict. Much of the security enjoyed by its estimated 3.5 million people is attributed to a “hybrid” governance system marrying traditional authority with modern Western style democratic governance.
But Somaliland’s main donors have expressed concern over recent developments that beg the question whether its mixed political arrangements are robust enough. Claire Elder and Cedric Barnes from the International Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project discuss why a decision by the so-called Guurti – the Upper House of Elders – worries Somaliland’s international partners and risks causing a dangerous political and clan polarisation.
FULL BLOGPOST (via In Pursuit of Peace)
Photo: Claire Elder/Crisis Group
Source: In Pursuit of Peace
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Al-Shabaab video shows how far it lags behind in ‘jihadi draft’ | David Smith
A propaganda video released by the Somali militant group al-Shabaab, threatening attacks against shopping centres in the west, smacks of a bid to remain relevant as other extremist groups such as Islamic State (Isis) and Boko Haram grab the world’s attention.
The slickly produced 77-minute film, posted online on Saturday, calls for strikes on Oxford Street and two Westfield malls in London, the Mall of America in Minnesota and Canada’s West Edmonton mall. “Westgate was just the beginning,” it proclaims, invoking what might cynically be described as al-Shabaab’s greatest hit: the siege of the Westgate mall in Nairobi, Kenya, in which 67 people were killed by four gunmen.
But that was September 2013 and a great deal has happened since then. Isis has overrun swaths of Iraq and Syria, and produced macabre videos tailored to the modern media cycle. Boko Haram has rampaged through northern Nigeria and stolen headlines with the kidnapping of 276 schoolgirls in Chibok. Islamist gunmen have stunned the world by attacking a satirical magazine in Paris, killing 17 people over three days.
FULL ARTICLE (via The Guardian)
Photo: UN Photo/Stuart Price
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Tackle early the conditions that breed extremism | Jean-Marie Guéhenno (Crisis Group President and CEO)
The recent murders of Haruna Yukawa and Kenji Goto are tragic illustrations of the global reach of violent religious extremism.
The violence carried out by the Islamic State is particularly horrific, and a bitter first-hand experience for Japan. But it is part of a broader trend of extremist groups operating in deeply unstable pockets of the world and employing brutal tactics, including Boko Haram in Nigeria, Al-Shabaab in Somalia, the Pakistani Taliban, among others.
Closer to home, Islamic militants have attempted to blast their way on to the agenda in countries like Indonesia, the Philippines and India: all countries where Japan has sizable investments. They have had little success selling their ideology within these countries on any scale, but they remain a threat.
FULL COMMENTARY (via Nikkei Asian Review)
Photo: World Economic Forum/flickr
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The Evolving Risks of Fragile States and International Terrorism | Brookings
Even as today’s headlines focus on Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS or ISIL) and violent extremism in the Middle East, terrorist activities by Boko Haram in Nigeria, al Shabaab in Somalia, the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan and competing militias in Libya show the danger of allowing violent extremism to flourish in fragile states. Continued threats emerging from ungoverned spaces underline the need to address the relationship between weak states and international terrorism – a need that has grown significantly in the past three years. Of particular urgency is the need to focus on comprehensive responses including the most effective preventive measures to address extremism and instability before they lead to international terrorism.
On September 29, the Project on International Order and Strategy (IOS) hosted the first public remarks in Washington by Jean-Marie Guéhenno, the new president of the International Crisis Group and former undersecretary-general of the United Nations for peacekeeping. Guéhenno discussed the conditions in fragile states that provide fertile ground for conflict and for risks of international terrorism.
A discussion followed with World Bank Special Adviser Sarah Cliffe, a former assistant secretary-general of the U.N. and an expert on fragile states and conflict zones. Bruce Jones, deputy director of Foreign Policy at Brookings and director of the IOS project, moderated.
FULL DISCUSSION (Brookings)
Photo by International Crisis Group
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Somali terrorists al-Shabaab threaten 7/7 style attack on UK | The Week
SOMALI militants linked to al-Qaeda have threatened to inflict on the UK a terrorist attack worse than the London bombings of 7 July 2005 for extraditing the Islamist cleric Abu Hamza to the United States.
Al-Shabaab made the threats in a series of messages on Twitter, The Times reports.
One tweet threatened the biggest Islamist terrorist attack yet on Britain: “The nightmare that surreptitiously looms on British shores is bound to eclipse the horrors of 7/7 and 21/7 combined.”
Another read: “Britain will pay the heftiest price for its brazen role in the war against Islam and endless brutality against innocent Muslims.”
Al-Shabaab also said it would “go to every possible length to attain the freedom of imprisoned Muslim scholars”.
Photo: C. G. P. Grey/Flickr
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Reuters Alertnet: Somalia talks should include dialogue with rebels, say experts
Katy Migiro
Somalia’s famine may be over for now but, ahead of this week’s London Somalia Conference, some experts say the international community needs to pay more attention to opening dialogue with al Shabaab militants as a means to stabilise the war-ravaged state.
Years of anarchy since the fall of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991, combined with frequent drought and rampant inflation, have turned Somalia into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Much of the fighting now is between government forces and gunmen loyal to hardline Islamist group al Shabaab.
“Al Shabaab became much more unpopular because of its poor handling of the famine and its refusal to acknowledge that there were serious food deficiencies in the areas that they controlled,” said EJ Hogendoorn, the International Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa project director.
Al Shabaab rebels have previously banned some U.N. and international aid agencies from working in Somalia. The rebels have blamed food aid for creating dependency.