International Crisis Group
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“Washington’s show of resolve and force has to be complemented by efforts to shore up ASEAN’s institutional capacity and capability. It has to ensure its actions support ASEAN’s leadership but not replace it.” —Yanmei Xie, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst, China, tells dpa international referring to the Association of South-East Asian Nations
Source: dpa international
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Stirring up the South China Sea (IV): Oil in Troubled Waters
The South China Sea’s hydrocarbon resources are hotly contested though its reserves are unproven. While their potential economic benefit may be considerable, their foremost significance is political, as their division has implications for sovereignty and fundamental law of the sea principles. Exploration frictions have deepened geopolitical fault lines.
FULL REPORT (Via Crisis Group)
Photo: AFP/Hoang Dinh
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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Stirring up the South China Sea (III): A Fleeting Opportunity for Calm
The South China Sea is the cockpit of geopolitics in East Asia. Five countries – Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam – plus Taiwan have substantial and competing territorial and maritime claims in a body of water that is both an important source of hydrocarbons and fisheries and a vital trade corridor. The recent history has been scarred by cycles of confrontation. Today, the clashes are becoming more heated, and the lulls between periods of tension are growing shorter. As the region continues to grow in influence and power, the handling of the competing claims will set the tone for relations within East Asia for years. The cost of even a momentary failure to manage tensions could pose a significant threat to one of the world’s great collaborative economic success stories. Despite China’s controversial development of some of the reefs it controls, the current relatively low temperature of the disagreement offers a chance to break the cycle, but it is likely to be short-lived. The countries of the region, supported by the wider international community, need to embrace the opportunity while it lasts.
FULL REPORT (via Crisis Group)
Photo: AFP/ GUO QIUDA, XINHUA
Source: Crisis Group
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“Après un face-à-face de deux mois entre navires philippins et chinois, c’est désormais du côté du Japon et des îles Senkaku/Diaoyu que se déploient les rivalités. A la mi-octobre, la marine chinoise s’est approchée des côtes contestées lors de manœuvres militaires, tandis que le porte-avions américain « USS George-Washington » faisait une démonstration de force en mer de Chine méridionale.” — tiré de « Guerre des nationalismes en mer de Chine » un article par Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, responsable du département Chine et Asie du Nord-Est de l'International Crisis Group, dans Le Monde diplomatique -
China takes the gloves off | CNN GPS
By Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt
As tensions rise in the South China Sea, the gloves are coming off in Beijing. When it comes to exploiting the weaknesses of its rivals in Southeast Asia – smaller nations also laying claim to the South China Sea – China doesn’t pull any punches.
Until recently, it followed a line of “reactive assertiveness” – responding forcefully to perceived provocations in this disputed body of water. Now, there are signs that China has shed the “reactive” part of its approach.
Photo: Daderot/ Flickr
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ICG Warns of Regional War | Bangkok Post
Tensions over competing claims in the South China Sea could escalate into conflict, with an arms build-up among rival nations raising the temperature, an international think tank warned Tuesday.
Prospects of solving the disputes “seem to be diminishing” after a recent failure by the 10-nation ASEAN grouping to hammer out a “code of conduct” that would govern actions in the sea, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said.
Photo: Gunawan Kartapranata/ Wikimedia Commons
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Nations at Impasse Over South China Sea, Group Warns | New York Times
By Jane Perlez
The intensifying disputes between China and four of its Southeast Asian neighbors over claims in the South China Sea have begun to raise warnings over the prospect of open conflict.
The disputes, enmeshed in the competition for energy resources, have reached an impasse, according to a report by the International Crisis Group, a research organization that has become a leading authority on the frictions.
Photo: Voice of America/ Wikimedia Commons
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“As Beijing’s economic and political clout grows, other claimant countries carefully balance defence of their territorial claims and management of their relationship with their giant neighbour.” -
Territorial disputes, coupled with a history of violent conflict and a staggering bilateral trade deficit, have fostered widespread suspicion of and animosity toward China.
Hardliners and nationalists are angered by this; some have even urged the Chinese government to launch a war and “teach the small South East Asian countries a lesson”.
Quotes from our latest report, Stirring up the South China Sea (II): Regional Responses.
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Hardened lines in the South China Sea | Asia Times
By Roberto Tofani
Tit-for-tat moves by China and Vietnam represent the latest indication that tensions could break into conflict over contested and potentially resource rich maritime areas in the South China Sea.
Hanoi’s National Assembly late last month overwhelmingly passed a law that effectively declared sovereignty over areas of the Spratly and Paracel Islands, including territories claimed by China. The law will come into force at the beginning of next year, leaving unclear how Hanoi plans to fortify its claim in what it refers to as the East Vietnam Sea.
The decision came in the wake of the publication of a short essay entitled “Vietnam’s sovereignty over Hoang Sa [Paracel] and Truong Sa [Spratly] Archipelagos” by the National Political Publishing House, which gave historical evidence in support of Vietnam’s claims.
Photo: U.S. Navy photo/ Cmdr. Ed Thompson
