International Crisis Group

The EU can agree on immigration—but only if it gets its act together.

Europe needs to be clear about the challenge it faces. It is not one of security. Nor is migration an invasion: migrants moving from South to North constitute 1 percent of the global population. Human history, demographics, economics, climate change, and conflict suggest migration will stay. To assert otherwise is to follow in the footsteps of Canute’s courtiers beseeching their king to hold back the tide.

The link between conflict and flight—a key dimension of current mass movement—must be forcefully made. In September 2016, the world convenes in New York to discuss large movements of refugees and migrants. Europe should lead with ambition: through radical rethinking of how best to treat refugees (Are camps fit for the twenty-first century?); through considerably ramping up support to frontline states; and through recommitting to those institutions—the UN Security Council and the office of the secretary general—best placed to manage the prevention and effective resolution of conflict.

The tragedy of death—over 2,500 in the Mediterranean so far in 2016 alone—and dubious deals to keep migrants at bay weaken Europe’s leadership and fray the international legal order: a heavy price for an unattainable goal. Managing, not preventing, should be Europe’s strategy. That means creating safe pathways and common asylum policies, upholding international law, and committing to burden sharing.

- Jonathan Prentice, Director of the London office and senior adviser for advocacy at the International Crisis Group

SOURCE: Carnegie Europe

Amid continued violence and a dangerous polarisation between the Burundi government and opposition, a delegation of African Union (AU) heads of state will visit Bujumbura on 25-26 February. Mandated by the recent AU summit and led by South African President Jacob Zuma, the five heads of state need to deliver tough messages to both President Pierre Nkurunziza and the armed opposition. These should include insistence on a credible dialogue outside the country, an end to the armed opposition’s provocative attacks, a halt to impunity and ongoing killings, and respect for the Arusha Peace Agreement that brought an end to the country’s twelve-year civil war.

FULL STATEMENT (Via Crisis Group)

Photo: REUTERS/Jean Pierre Aime Harerimama

SOURCE: Crisis Group

This year, the armed Islamist extremist group Al-Shabaab has notched up a series of bloody successes against both Somali targets and the African Union peace-enforcement mission AMISOM. Meanwhile, the international community has been busy cajoling principals of the Somali federal and state governments into agreeing on the means by which to hold new elections due in August. Despite four years of “post-transitional” government and a level of international engagement and foreign military presence not seen since the early 1990s, Somali politics remain dysfunctional and prone to violent disagreement – exactly the conditions in which Al-Shabaab thrives.

FULL BLOG POST (Via Crisis Group)

Photo: AFP PHOTO/Mohamed DAHIR

SOURCE: Crisis Group

BEIJING — Secretary of State John F. Kerry and China’s foreign minister agreed Wednesday to move ahead with a U.N. resolution condemning North Korea for its latest nuclear test, but they appeared as far apart as ever on how far to push Pyongyang.

The United States says any additional U.N. action against the North is likely to include expanded sanctions. Beijing, a key ally of North Korea’s, expressed anger at the nuclear test this month but has not indicated whether it will endorse further pressure.

FULL ARTICLE (Via The Washington Post)

Photo: Wikimedia

SOURCE: The Washington Post

Brazil’s former Foreign Minister of External Relations, Celso Amorim’s contribution to the Future of Conflict collection of 20 essays for Crisis Group’s 20th Anniversary.

As the UN marks its 70th anniversary, the crucial question of Security Council reform remains neglected, despite a number of UN-focused initiatives launched, both by think-tanks and other private institutions, as well as by the UN Member States and its secretariat. This, despite the fact that the Security Council and its reform has been the object of heated and, by and large, fruitless debate for at least twenty years. Now, on the occasion of the UN’s 70th anniversary, the upcoming G20 meeting — and the G20 themselves — should be leveraged to gain real traction for reform efforts and ensure a broader group of voices, reflecting today’s world, are heard.

FULL ESSAY (Via Crisis Group)

Photo:  MAGNUM/Tim Hetherington

Source: Crisis Group

Chris Patten’s contribution to the Future of Conflict collection of 20 essays for Crisis Group’s 20th Anniversary.

The crystal ball is cracked; the sources are thin; the extrapolations dubious. But it is not much easier to remember our recent history, nor to work out what exactly has been going on. The closer we are to the past, the more opaquely past it seems.

FULL ESSAY (Via Crisis Group)

Photo: MAGNUM/Jerome Sessini

Source: Crisis Group