International Crisis Group

Divisions, Harsh Realities Plague Obama’s Afghan Surge | Catherine Maddux

When President Obama took office six years ago, among the many burdens he inherited were two costly and complex wars: Iraq and Afghanistan.

He campaigned hard against the U.S. invasion of Iraq, calling it the “wrong war” and made good on a promise to end American involvement. The White House touts that as a crowning achievement despite Iraq battling insurgency and sectarian strife.  

The other war — Afghanistan — has posed a different set of dilemmas for the president. 

​Just this week, Obama was reminded of the grim realities of 13 years of military engagement when a man dressed as an Afghan soldier killed a two-star American general, the highest ranking officer killed in combat since 1970, according to the Pentagon.

FULL ARTICLE (Voice of America)

Photo: The U.S. Army/flickr

Taliban ‘gaining ground’ as Afghan audit drags on | Gabriel Domínguez and Srinivas Mazumdaru

The election audit comes at a critical time for Afghanistan as the international community winds down its combat mission and foreign aid dwindles. The successful completion of the electoral process, which has been marred by allegations of widespread fraud between presidential candidates Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, is therefore key to ensure a peaceful transfer of power in the conflict-ridden country. However, attacks by the Taliban have intensified recently, with dozens of assaults reported last weekend alone.

Moreover, on July 29, Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s powerful cousin, a close ally of presidential candidate Ghani, was killed in a suicide bomb attack, deepening political strains. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

In a DW interview, Graeme Smith, a senior Afghanistan analyst for the International Crisis Group (ICG), says there is no strong connection, so far, between the electoral crisis in Afghanistan and the rising number of insurgent attacks, but adds that the Taliban’s territorial gains are of symbolic importance as they show the militants’ ability to confront Afghan forces in face-to-face battle.

FULL INTERVIEW (Deutsche Welle)

Photo: U.S. Army/ flickr

The war in Afghanistan entered a new phase in 2013. It now is increasingly a contest between the insurgents and the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Many within and outside the government are more optimistic about stability in the wake of a relatively successful first round of presidential elections on 5 April 2014. However, any euphoria should be tempered by a realistic assessment of the security challenges that President Karzai’s successor will face in the transitional period of 2014-2015. Kabul may find these challenges difficult to overcome without significant and sustained international security, political and economic support.

FULL REPORT (crisisgroup.org)

Hamid Karzai’s tangled legacy: inept failure or anti-Taliban hero? | Jason Burke

Amid the dust and traffic of today’s Kabul, three things remain almost as they were a decade or so ago. In winter, and when the wind clears the smog that is a side-effect of years of economic boom, the blue sky above the snowcapped peaks that ring the city is as impressive as ever. Then there is the Arg, the sprawling palace at the city’s centre and the apparently calm eye of a turbulent storm of a country. The complex is home to the third element that has remained constant since the end of the Taliban’s grim regime in 2001: Hamid Karzai, now in his 13th year of power.

However, Karzai, 56, will soon be gone. He is constitutionally barred from contesting next weekend’s elections and soon this theatrical, mercurial, complex man will have to find a new occupation. Many, particularly in Washington, will be relieved.

Once, the prospect of Karzai losing power would have provoked a different reaction. Back in the chaotic days of late 2001, as the Taliban regime crumbled under the US assault launched in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, Karzai was seen as a the man of the hour. He was the head of a major tribe, of Pashtun ethnicity like the apparently defeated Taliban and around 40% of his compatriots, but moderate, educated and pro-western. Officials in Washington, Kabul and London enthused about their new-found Afghan hero. Few are as gushing now. If, as three western ambassadors to Afghanistan told me during their respective terms in the Afghan capital, the relationship between US policymakers and Karzai was “like a marriage, with its ups and downs” this union has ended in definitive, and acrimonious, divorce.

FULL ARTICLE (The Guardian)

Photo:  U.S Embassy Kabul Afghanistan/flickr

Kabul Taliban Hotel Attack Will Hurt Democratic Process in Afghanistan: Analyst | Sasha Nagy

The brazen attack by Taliban fighters at a Kabul hotel Thursday that killed two Canadian aid workers could have a detrimental effect on the coming general elections, a prominent Canadian security analyst said Friday.

Roshan Thomas, a Vancouver woman who started a school in Kabul, has been identified as one of the Canadians killed in the attack.

Graeme Smith, an award-winning former journalist with the Globe and Mail who is in Kabul working with the International Crisis Group, said the attacks will make it difficult for international election observers to stay in Kabul and conduct first-hand inspections of polling sites. One of the of the victims, he said, worked as an election observer from the National Democratic Institute.

FULL ARTICLE (The Huffington Post Canada)

Photo: US Army/Flickr