International Crisis Group

10 Wars to Watch in 2015 | Jean-Marie Guéhenno

The last year was a bad one for international peace and security. Sure, there were bright spots in 2014. Colombia’s peace process looks hopeful. The last round of Iran’s nuclear talks was more successful than many think. Tunisia, though not yet out of the woods, showed the power of dialogue over violence. Afghanistan bucked its history and has, notwithstanding many challenges, a government of national unity. President Barack Obama’s restoration of diplomatic relations with Cuba can only be positive.

But for the most part, it has been a dispiriting year. Conflict is again on the rise after a major decrease following the end of the Cold War. Today’s wars kill and displace more people, and are harder to end than in years past.

The Arab world’s turmoil deepened: The Islamic State captured large swathes of Iraq and Syria, much of Gaza was destroyed again, Egypt turned toward authoritarianism and repression, and Libya and Yemen drifted toward civil war. In Africa, the world watched South Sudan’s leaders drive their new country into the ground. The optimism of 2013 faded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ebola ravaged parts of West Africa, and Boko Haram insurgents stepped up terrorist attacks in northern Nigeria. The international legal order was challenged with the annexation of Crimea by Russia, and war is back in Europe as fighting continues in eastern Ukraine.

So what do the last 12 months tell us is going wrong?

FULL COMMENTARY (Foreign Policy)

Photo: Michael Kötter/flickr

Congo: Ending the Status Quo

Nairobi/Brussels  |   17 Dec 2014

A new consensus and strategy are urgently needed to tackle the numerous, brutal armed groups in eastern Congo and to save the February 2013 Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework (PSCF) in the Great Lakes region.

The M23 defeat by the UN’s Intervention Brigade (FIB) in November 2013 raised hopes that it would mark the beginning of the end for armed groups in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). But the M23’s demobilisation remains unfinished and the civilian population continues to be terrorised by armed groups, as recent October attacks, which left 200 people dead in the Beni area, have shown. As the 2 January 2015 deadline for the demobilisation of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) nears, distrust and discord are high among the regional stakeholders, including those who are supposed to contribute to a solution under a UN mandate. The neutralisation of the armed groups is now the main stumbling block in the way of implementing the PSCF. In its latest briefing, Congo: Ending the Status Quo, the International Crisis Group examines the reasons behind the present stalemate and outlines possibilities to end it.

The briefing’s major findings and recommendations are:

• The UN Stabilisation Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO), the UN Special Envoy to the Great Lakes and the UN Security Council should urgently build consensus around a comprehensive strategy to deal with armed groups, based on lessons learned from earlier operations. This should include effective military pressure built on intelligence-led operations and deployment of troops to disrupt the capacity of armed groups to collect revenue, along with contingency plans to avoid civilian casualties; disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR); an agreement about the judicial treatment of group leaders; police action against local and international support networks; and third-country settlement options.

• The Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) should make a thorough and fair assessment of the progress in the voluntary disarmament process of the FDLR in January and abstain from further extension.

• If no action is taken against the FDLR in January, the UN Security Council should convene a special high-level meeting bringing together the representatives of the DRC, other key regional players (Angola, Burundi, Malawi, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda) and international actors (the World Bank, SADC, ICGLR, EU, U.S., UK, Belgium and France). This meeting should focus on the causes of the present stalemate and outline the humanitarian, political and economic cost of the status quo.

• If the Congolese government and the FIB troop contributors remain unwilling to take action alongside the measures outlined above to help demobilise armed groups, particularly the FDLR, the UN Security Council should consider ending the mandate of the FIB.

“The UN presence should not be allowed to continue to serve mainly as a safety net for the Congolese government while Kinshasa calls for MONUSCO’s drawdown and troop contributing countries remain reluctant to implement key elements of the mission’s mandate”, says Hans Hoebeke, Congo Senior Analyst. “Some regional as well as international actors seem to favour the deadlocked status quo”.

“With the 2 January deadline, the moment of truth is coming”, says Thierry Vircoulon, Central Africa Project Director. “The UN Security Council should attempt to build consensus around a clear and comprehensive strategy to deal with armed groups, but if this proves impossible, it may be time to turn the page and put an end to the UN’s Intervention Brigade”.

FULL POLICY BRIEFING

The Security Challenges of Pastoralism in Central Africa

Nairobi/Brussels  |   1 Apr 2014

Sensible, inclusive regulation of pastoralism that has mitigated tension in parts of the Sahel should be extended to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Central African Republic (CAR), where conflicts have worsened with the southward expansion of pastoralism.

In its latest report, Central Africa: The Security Challenges of Pastoralism, the International Crisis Group Group analyses an under-reported human security problem: violent conflicts related to the expansion of pastoralism southward from the Sahel. This dynamic is problematic because pastoral ecosystems transcend borders and transhumance creates new settlement fronts and sources of friction in Central Africa.

The report’s major findings and recommendations are:

Pastoralism generates wealth and economic interdependence but also causes tensions, usually over water or pasture. In the last few years, conflicts have intensified because of growing insecurity and small-arms proliferation; climate change and the southward shift of cattle migration; the multipli-cation of transhumance roads, especially transnational routes; expansion of cultivated areas into traditional grazing lands; and growing cattle herds

In Chad, the government should reinforce regulation of cattle migration by deploying staff from the livestock ministry to improve marking and organisation of transhumance roads and of cattle resting areas and to provide services along roads and next to cattle markets.

In CAR, even before the ongoing crisis, violent clashes between Chadian herdsmen and the local population caused thousands to flee their homes during the past years. Ahead of the migration sea-son, the regional organisation in charge of pastoralism (CEBEVIRAH) should organise a meeting with the CAR and Chad governments to establish monitoring mechanisms and reduce tensions. Af-ter CAR is stabilised, both countries need to negotiate clear regulations together with pastoralists and farmers to prevent future conflict.

In the DRC, tensions between the migrant Mbororo community – from the Peul ethnic group – and local farmers in Orientale Province could be calmed by giving Mbororo pastoralists official permission to remain, monitoring them, establishing mediation committees and developing economic interactions between them and the local population.

“Conflicts linked to pastoralist movements from Chad to CAR or into north-eastern DRC take place in deeply rural areas” says Central Africa Analyst Thibaud Lesueur. “Despite a growing death toll, they are invisible and neglected by the governments”

“Pastoralism needs to be regulated effectively in this region”, says Central Africa Project Director Thierry Vircoulon. “But regulation cannot be imposed: it must be negotiated between state and non-state actors and must foster economic interdependence between pastoralists and farmers”.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

UN’s peacekeeping offensive in DRC | Inside Story

Renewed fighting has broken out around Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, close to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s border with Rwanda.

And UN peacekeepers are taking a more combative role as fighting escalates in the DR Congo.

Its elite intervention brigade, which has been given a robust mandate to take on armed groups, has been drawn into the fight, changing the dynamic of the conflict in DRC’s troubled east and raising questions about the UN’s aggressive new military mandate.

FULL ARTICLE (Al Jazeera English) 

Photo: United Nations Photo/Flickr

Can the DRC army stop abusing human rights? | IRIN

Stamping out human rights abuses by the army in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) entails more than classroom training sessions, according to analysts, who recommend a wide range of ambitious reforms. 

These include better discipline, an efficient payroll system, the development of security policies, the prosecution of offenders, and better education and training to reform and professionalize the army, also known as FARDC. 

FULL ARTICLE (IRIN)

Photo: US Army Africa/Flickr

DRC-based Ugandan rebel group “recruiting, training” | IRIN

The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan rebel movement based in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), is recruiting, training and reorganizing to carry out fresh attacks on Uganda, officials say. 

FULL STORY (IRIN)

Photo: Julien Harneis/Flickr

from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy

by Louise Arbour

Democratic Republic of the Congo

The April 2012 mutiny in the east by M23 rebels, former rebels turned military turned rebels again, created a distinct feeling of déja vu. Once again, after so many years of conflict, regional and international actors are left scrambling to contain an insurgent rebel group, with a range of ostensibly domestic demands but clearly profiting from external backing, and prevent another regional war in the DRC. The consequences of the latest round of violence have been tragic for civilians, with reports emerging of wide-scale human rights abuses, extrajudicial executions targeting civil society, and massive displacement of local populations.

Mediation efforts by the regional International Conference of the Great Lakes Region have seen the withdrawal of M23 from the eastern city of Goma and the initiation of peace talks, but the risk of repeated rebellion and widespread violence remain. Previous attempts at post-conflict reconstruction in the DRC have met with little success. Without adequate pressure on both the DRC government and Rwanda-backed rebels to enact crucial governance reforms and open political dialogue, the sad history of civil conflict will likely continue to repeat itself in the DRC in 2013.

Congo’s dismal state should also force the international community to take a hard look at its own behavior. Ten years into a massive commitment to shore up stability in the DRC, bring legitimacy to the government in Kinshasa, and protect civilians in the east, the situation is going from bad to worse. The government of President Joseph Kabila lacks national buy-in; the citizens of the eastern Kivu provinces – despite the presence of the largest-ever U.N. peacekeeping operation – remain woefully unprotected; and the country’s integrity remains prey to the whims of predatory neighbors.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Policy)

Photo: EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection/Flickr

New U.N. Charges Linking Rwanda to DRC Rebel Group Heat Up Regional Tensions | World Politics Review 

By Brian Dabbs 

KAMPALA, Uganda – Following months of heated exchanges between international observers and Rwandan officials, a United Nations investigative body leveled its most detailed and controversial accusations over alleged Rwandan support for the Congolese M23 rebels in a 44-page report leaked late Tuesday. 

The document claims that Rwandan Defense Minister Gen. James Kabarebe exercises direct command over the rebel group. Formerly integrated into the Congolese army, M23 launched a mutiny in April, carving a significant swathe of territory out of the volatile, crisis-prone eastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo ever since.

FULL ARTICLE (World Politics Review)

Photo: Al Jazeera English/Flickr