International Crisis Group

South Korea: North Believed to be Preparing for 4th Nuclear Test | Steve Herman

Speculation is growing that North Korea is planning to conduct an underground nuclear test to coincide with President Obama’s visit to the peninsula this week.

South Korea’s foreign minister is warning the North not to carry out a fourth nuclear test. Speaking at an international forum in Seoul, Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se remarked: “If North Korea goes ahead with another nuclear test as it has publicly warned, it will be a game changer.” 

Daniel Pinkston, the Northeast Asia deputy project director for the International Crisis Group, said Pyongyang is unlikely to worry about the South’s reaction.

“They’ve demonstrated a long dedication, persistence and resolve to dedicate a lot of resources over a long period of time. They’ve been able to bear the international pressure and sanctions and everything else. So I think it’s a clear indication that the nuclear program is very important to the leadership and so I don’t expect them to stop or reverse course,” said Pinkston.

FULL ARTICLE (Voice of America)

Photo: John Pavelka/flickr

“North Korea is far outside the boundary of accepted behavior” - expert | Roman Kosarev

The exercises led to an extended surging tension last year when North Korea threatening preemptive nuclear strikes and attacks on South Korean and US targets. Meanwhile around 360 South Koreans reportedly met their North Korean relatives on Monday for the first time since the Korean War, that lasted between 1950 and 1953. The family reunion event took place in North Korea’s mount Kumgang resort. The Voice of Russia talked to Daniel Pinkston, a North East Asia Deputy Project Director at the International Crisis Group.

FULL INTERVIEW (Voice of Russia)

Photo: rapidtravelchai/flickr

China’s ADIZ and the Implications for North East Asia | Dan Pinkston

China’s recent declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea has stimulated much debate and concern and interpretations have varied widely. The Chinese government has asserted that the ADIZ is in accordance with international practice and will contribute to regional peace and air security. But the announcement drew protests from Japan, the United States, South Korea, Australia and others. Within days, military aircraft from the United States, Japan and South Korea defied China’s assertion that all aircraft entering the ADIZ would have to submit flight plans, maintain radio contact and follow directions from the Chinese Defense Ministry or face “emergency defensive measures.”

There are no specific international treaty provisions regulating the establishment and administration of ADIZs. About 20 countries have established ADIZs since the U.S. started the trend in the early days of the Cold War but their legitimacy and role in air safety and security are unclear.

FULL ARTICLE (Crisis Group Blogs)

Photo: U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. D. Myles Cullen/Flickr

South Korea reopens tender for $8bn fighter jet programme | Simon Mundy and Song Jung-a

South Korea will restart an $8bn tender for a new fleet of fighter jets after a three-way race between Boeing, Lockheed Martin and the Eurofighter consortium failed to produce a winner.

The defence ministry’s announcement on Tuesday followed weeks of domestic controversy. The government, under pressure to meet ambitious social spending pledges, had looked set to choose Boeing’s F-15 jet as a cheaper alternative to Lockheed Martin’s more advanced F-35.

FULL ARTICLE (Financial Times)

Photo: Official U.S. Air Force/Flickr

Dennis Rodman back from North Korea. Time to take him seriously? | Peter Grier

Dennis Rodman looks like no one’s idea of a diplomat. He’s got more piercings than a dartboard and dresses with flamboyance, as if he believes Mardi Gras is every day.

At press conferences he speaks his own language. Sometimes it makes sense. Sometimes it is composed of equal parts expletives and random nouns.

But maybe it is time to take seriously Mr. Rodman’s basketball outreach to North Korea. That is what Daniel Pinkston of the very respectable International Crisis Group believes, in any case.

FULL ARTICLE (Christian Science Monitor)

Photo: clogsilk/Flickr

A statue of Dennis Rodman made for the former basketball star in North Korea, where Rodman recently traveled for the second time.

Rodman just finished a press conference in New York with Daniel Pinkston, Crisis Group’s North East Asia Deputy Project Director. Watch a recording of the conference here.

Has Dennis Rodman opened the door to Pyongyang? asks Daniel Pinkston, our Deputy Director for North East Asia. Dan is at a live press conference right now with Rodman, who just returned from his second trip to North Korea. Watch the conference here.

North and South Korea tentatively agree to talks on shuttered industrial zone | CNN

By Jethro Mullen and K.J. Kwon

The North Korean decision to halt operations surprised some observers, since Kaesong was considered an important source of hard currency for Kim Jong Un’s regime.

The proposal for talks regarding the complex indicates that “maybe the cost of closure of Kaesong is greater than they had anticipated,” said Daniel Pinkston, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group covering Northeast Asia.

At the same time, Pinkston said, North Korea’s key ally China, which has expressed displeasure with some of Pyongyang’s recent behavior, may not have been “as generous as the North Koreans have been expecting in terms of aid, assistance, trade and investment.”

FULL ARTICLE (CNN)

Photo: Gabriel Britto/Flickr