International Crisis Group
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Insights from the Burundian Crisis (III): Back to Arusha and the Politics of Dialogue
When Burundians, and international mediators, finally meet in Arusha, they must remember the lessons of the last hard-won peace process more than a decade ago. The root causes of conflict in Burundi are political, not ethnic, and cannot be resolved by force. Compromise will be necessary, since neither the government nor the opposition have the means to win a definitive victory. Pursuing maximalist positions will only mean more hardship and bloodshed, which will further erode the real progress in reconciliation made since 2000. Genuine dialogue, addressing not only immediate problems but also fundamental political differences is needed to resolve the current crisis and chart a peaceful future for the country.
Source: Crisis Group
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“The speed that Istanbul airport got back up and running symbolises the resilience of a country accustomed to crisis and conflict. But this comes after several years in which several pillars of Turkish prosperity have been badly damaged…In short, Turkey will need all the hardiness it can muster to withstand the new front IS has opened against it.” -
“After a period of relative calm, an upsurge of crises is testing the international system, pitting major powers and regional players against one another and highlighting the weaknesses of preventive diplomacy. Governments and international organisations were taken by surprise by the Arab uprisings in 2011 and slow to react to crises in South Sudan and the Central African Republic (CAR) in the years that followed. Global and regional rivalries have weakened diplomacy over Syria, Ukraine and the South China Sea. Policymakers, stretched by the symptoms of this wave of instability, including mass displacement and the spread of transnational terrorism, struggle to focus on conflict prevention.” —Crisis Group Special Report, Seizing the Moment: From Early Warning to Early Action
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The results of the December 2015 parliamentary elections could have been an opportunity to seek a negotiated solution to Venezuela’s protracted political crisis. Instead, the country is in a spiral of confrontation and chaos. In this video, Crisis Group Andes Senior Analyst Phil Gunson, and former Crisis Group Latin America Program Director Javier Ciurlizza explain how political confrontation, economic mismanagement and crime have pushed Venezuela to the brink of collapse.
SOURCE: Crisis Group
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“If Sudan and South Sudan cannot strike a new deal then the broader regional configuration may well revert to its previous state of instability, mutual suspicion and proxy conflict. But the emergence of a new and pragmatic grouping could shift the regional balance of power in the Horn of Africa with significant advantages to the regimes in Kampala, Juba and Khartoum, and help end one of Africa’s most enduring conflicts.” —Crisis Group’s Maggie Copeland and Magnus Taylor in latest commentary, From Conflict to Cooperation? Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda
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“Although Burundi’s violent history makes these new forms of communication particularly sensitive, the rise of social media through mobile phones is far from unique. Across Africa, Twitter, Facebook and WhatsApp are used increasingly by political activists to bypass government censorship.” —Senior central Africa consultant at Crisis Group, Thierry Vircoulon tells The Guardian in Burundi turns to WhatsApp as political turmoil brings media blackout
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A Wake-up Call for Eritrea and Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s military probably knows that delivering a decisive blow against Eritrea may fatally damage the regime and risk (another) complicated civil war on its doorstep.
-Crisis Group’s Cedric Barnes in latest commentary, A Wake-up Call for Eritrea and Ethiopia
Source: Crisis Group
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“Peace deals with the two groups are therefore unlikely to be reached at the same time. Nonetheless, Colombia’s chances to have a sustainable peace-building process and end its half-century of armed conflict are much improved by the negotiations with the ELN. Despite the challenges, the prospect of signing agreements with both the FARC and ELN heralds great changes for this South American nation.” —Crisis Group’s Colombia Senior Analyst Kyle Johnson explains why the history of the ELN and its horizontal political structure make it such a unique negotiating actor
Source: Crisis Group
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In the village of Agachaul, Dagestan, women wait for a family house to be blown-up by security services as a punishment for their son being member of the insurgency.
Women in the Russian republic of Chechnya have never been under such pressure as they are today. Yet not much has been written about their role, their place in society, and their rights in Chechnya and in other North Caucasus conflicts.
Image Source: Crisis Group/Varvara Pakhomenko
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“The Russian government should invest in a consistent effort to guarantee equal protection of women not only in Chechnya, but also in Dagestan and Ingushetia. Among other measures, Russian authorities should improve maternal and social services, effectively investigate gender-based violence to combat impunity, and devise effective gendered de-radicalisation strategies. The women of the North Caucasus deserve at least the same level of protection as those in other parts of Russian territory.” —Crisis Group’s Ekaterina Sokirianskaia comments on Women in the North Caucasus Conflicts: An Under-reported Plight
Source: Crisis Group