International Crisis Group

China’s Central Asia Problem

Bishkek/Beijing/Brussels  |   27 Feb 2013

China’s influence is growing rapidly in Central Asia at a time when the region is looking increasingly unstable.

China’s Central Asia Problem, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines Beijing’s strong relationship with its neighbours in that troubled region (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan). Already the dominant economic force in the region, it could soon become the pre-eminent external power there, overshadowing Russia and the U.S.

But the Central Asian republics are increasingly beset by domestic problems. They are also vulnerable to a potentially well-organised insurgent challenge. Jihadists currently fighting beside the Taliban may re-focus their interest on the region after the 2014 NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. Many in Beijing are alarmed by the range of challenges Central Asia faces.  

“China’s strategy seems to be the creation of close ties with Central Asia to reinforce economic development and stability, which it believes will insulate itself, including its Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, as well as its neighbours from any negative consequence of NATO’s 2014 withdrawal from Afghanistan. It also hopes that economic development will counteract growing dissatisfaction with the political status quo in each country”, says Deirdre Tynan, Crisis Group’s Central Asia Project Director.

“The problem is that large parts of Central Asia look more insecure and unstable by the year. Afghanistan is a complicating factor, but many of Central Asia’s problems are the result of poor governance”, Tynan adds.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, China and its Central Asian neighbours have strengthened relations, initially on the economic front but increasingly on political and security matters as well. Central Asia’s socio-economic and political problems make it prone to turmoil and vulnerable to extremist organisations, both foreign and domestically generated.

Instability or conflict in one or more of the Central Asian states would impact China, as its economic interests depend on a stable security landscape. China’s investments are exposed not only to potential security crises but also to political whims of autocrats and grassroots violence.

China is starting to take tentative political and security initiatives in the region, mostly through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). However, the SCO, which includes Russia as well as the five Central Asian states, has shown itself ineffective in times of unrest. Central Asia’s international partners, including Russia and China, must be wary of attempts by the region’s leaders to push their populations to the brink, be it through political repression, divisive nationalism or economic deprivation. To address these threats, Beijing and Moscow need to view each other with less suspicion.

“China’s business practices in the region are driving suspicions of its intentions to an all-time high”, says Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, Crisis Group’s China Adviser. “If Chinese economic expansionism continues to fail to deliver benefits to the working population and enriches only certain political families, this could contribute to regional instability”.

FULL REPORT 

China in Central Asia

Tumblr, check out our new interactive map showing the increasingly close ties China is developing with its Central Asian neighbours. And be sure to read  today’s report on China’s Central Asia Problem, which details China’s security concerns about the region – and what it’s doing to ensure stability.

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Photo: thebadgerrides/Flickr

from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy

by Louise Arbour

Central Asia

This region provides a laundry list of countries on the brink. Tajikistan lumbers into 2013 with nothing good to show for 2012. Relations with Uzbekistan continue to deteriorate, and internal domestic disputes threaten to foment separatist ambitions in Gorno-Badakhshan. This mountainous and remote eastern province had little time for the central government in Dushanbe – even before government troops clashed with local fighters, many of them veterans of the Tajik civil war, whom they described as members of an organized crime group. Some of the fighters, including one of their leaders, were members of Tajikistan’s border forces. Additionally a number of residents of Khorog, described at one point as youth who had been misled by anti-government propaganda, also participated. (The area has long been deeply suspicious of the central government). 

Kyrgyzstan is no better. It continues to ignore festering ethnic tensions and rule-of-law issues in the south while a long-anticipated ethnic policy languishes unadopted in the office of the president. The central government’s reach in Osh grows progressively weaker, and the international community again seems to have little or no interest in all the early warning signs.

Widespread and systematic human rights abuses, meanwhile, are still the norm in Uzbekistan. To make matters worse, there are no plans for political succession once President Islam Karimov, 74, leaves the stage – a recipe for regional upheaval. Until the United States clears the last of its troops and materiel from Afghanistan, however, the issue is not likely to get much traction in Washington.

If trends continue, Kazakhstan faces another violent year ahead – 2012 saw a record number of terrorist attacks in western and southern parts of the country by previously unidentified jihadist groups. Astana’s attempt to cast itself as a stable ship in a regional sea of unpredictability is undermined by the fact that this is a country where protesters are shot dead and activists jailed. Socioeconomic grievances may yet be the undoing of the Kazakh state.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Policy)

Photo: Javier Martin Espartosa/Flickr

EU needs to help stem regional water conflicts | Chicago Tribune

By Justyna Pawlak

Experts say the European Union could help water-starved countries in North Africa better manage their water usage, helping address criticism that Europe has not reacted effectively to challenges stemming from the Arab Spring.

“Where the EU may have a role to play is in the area of water sustainability, reuse of water waste,” said William Lawrence, North Africa Project Director at the International Crisis Group.

“If downstream countries are using less water and using it better, then this can address upstream politics, which can be cantankerous.”

FULL ARTICLE (Reuters via Chicago Tribune)

Photo: U.S. Navy/Wikimedia Commons

Central Asia: Region in Decline 

By Kimberly Abbott

The countries of Central Asia are in the midst of a deep crisis. Often overshadowed in international circles by their war-torn neighbor to the south, Afghanistan, most of the Central Asian “Stans” – Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan – are experiencing a slow, painful decline, with their own governments largely to blame. Kazakhstan is in less trouble, but shows little interest in reform or the ability to handle labour unrest or so-far low-key challenges from insurgent groups.

Central Asia provides a textbook example of the damage that endemic corruption does to a country. The education and health systems in places like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, for example, are nearing total collapse. Many teachers leave in the middle of the school year in favor of better-compensated jobs as migrant laborers in Russia. Rates of unemployment are extreme, especially in Tajikistan, where the economy scrapes by on remittances from workers abroad in Russia. Rural areas there are hardest hit – some might receive just an hour of electricity a day in the winter. Here and elsewhere in the region, the capitals fare better, but only because leaders have learned to prevent angry crowds in the centers of power.

For now, the United States is the most visible external power in Central Asia, with critical supply routes running through the region into and out of Afghanistan in what is called the Northern Distribution Network (NDN). The Pentagon expanded these lines after tensions with Pakistan shut down routes into southern and eastern Afghanistan. But as the United States begins to withdraw from Afghanistan, there will be a window of opportunity for other powers to stretch an arm of influence into Central Asia. Russia, the traditional outside power in the region, would like to maintain what it calls its “privileged relations” in the region. It has neither the money to win over regional leaders, nor the troops to protect them, however, should the need arise.

China, on the other hand, is on the way up, and is likely to be the predominant external force in Central Asia after the U.S. and NATO complete their drawdown. China is likely to establish roots in Central Asia after the U.S. completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan, scheduled for late 2014. China’s interests center on the region’s abundant natural resources, in particular oil and gas. And China alone possesses the technical and financial capability to exploit these resources on a large scale. But it may also find itself charged with shoring up the security of some of the most vulnerable Central Asian states.

Beyond corruption, Central Asia’s most chronic problem may well be Afghanistan. During the United States’ long war in South Asia, Central Asian fighters joined the Taliban insurgency, providing a security reprieve for weak states like Tajikistan. As the war ends, those fighters may return home, with unpredictable but potentially volatile results. 

Looking forward, the Chinese government must improve its clumsy and insensitive labor and environmental policies if it wants to stay in Central Asia for the long term. The Chinese may also find themselves pulled into the region’s corruption and security concerns – for instance, some analysts fear that radical Islamist fighters in Afghanistan could spread north, even as far as China’s Xinjiang province.

I spoke with Paul Quinn-Judge, Deputy Asia Director for the International Crisis Group, about what to expect in Central Asia in the coming years. Listen to our conversation here.

Follow Kimberly Abbott on Twitter: www.twitter.com/kimberlymabbott

FULL ARTICLE

Photo: Holding Steady/ Flickr

Turkish Weekly | Kyrgyzstan and Democracy: Outcomes of a Survey

By: Gulay Mutlu

Kyrgyzstan has experienced two riots in five years. The first one, called the “Tulip Revolution,” overthrew Kyrgyzstan’s first president Askar Akayev in 2005. The second took place in 2010 and led to the ousting of Bakiyev. The latter was harsher and more violent. However, Kyrgyzstan was taking a “real step” toward democracy in an environment of ethnic violence. The new interim government led by Roza Otunbayeva fulfilled its mission with the presidential elections in October 2011.

The election was won by Almaz Atambayev. While the memories of clashes in 2010 are still fresh, Kyrgyzstan seemed to have taken lessons from the past. Although Bakiyev had accused the preceding government of authoritarianism, he also could not succeed in constitutional reforms and headed toward authoritarianism. However, learning from the past, the interim government wanted to change the constitutional regime from a presidential to parliamentary one. To do so, a referendum was held and 90% supported a parliamentary regime. With this strong support, the interim government initiated a reform movement.

Kyrgyzstan has become the first country in Central Asia to adopt democracy, and immediately attracted the interest of the international community. For example, in March, the International Crisis Group published a report analyzing the ethnic violence in the 2010 clashes. Moreover, the International Republican Institute has recently announced the results of a survey on Kyrgyz people’s opinions about social, political, and international relations matters in the new atmosphere. The results are quite interesting, and reveal many clues about Kyrgyzstan’s current situation.

FULL ARTICLE (Turkish Weekly)

Photo: Vmenkov/Wikimedia Commons

Louise Arbour, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group writes in Foreign Policy that Central Asia may be in a list of “Next Year’s Wars.” Tajikistan faces both local and external insurgencies with little ability to cope with them, and relations with neighboring Uzbekistan have deteriorated over water and transport disputes, punctuated by occasional deadly border incidents, notes The Bug Pit.

Added to the risk of conflict is the presence of the Uzbek ethnic minority in another neighbor, Kyrgyzstan, already the scene of ethnic clashes in 2010, killing more than 400 people and wounding thousands. The Tajik independent news service Asia Plus says Uzbekistan is building up its tanks on the Tajik border near the enclave of Sughd, following a shoot-out where one border guard was recently killed. This sort of skirmish has become common in recent years along Uzbekistan’s borders. Tashkent has escalated its ongoing conflicts with Tajikistan by halting gas deliveries this week after a contract lapsed and the countries failed to find an agreement on prices, Asia Plus reported.

Arbour identifies Uzbekistan’s close relationship with the US as another factor in predicting possible conflict, evidently because the US is now dependent on Uzbekistan for a large percent of the transit of supplies to NATO troops in Afghanistan. “Washington increasingly relies on Tashkent for logistics in Afghanistan, but the brutal nature of the regime means it is not only an embarrassing partner but also, ultimately, a very unreliable one,” says Arbour.

FULL ARTICLE (EurasiaNet)

Photo: Afghanistan Ministry of Transportation and Civil Aviation