International Crisis Group

Fears rise of growing Tunisian militancy | Financial Times

By Borzou Daragahi 

“Tunisians go to the Middle East to fight: it’s traditional,” said Michael Ayari, who is studying Islamist movements in Tunisia as a researcher for the International Crisis Group think-tank. “There’s a sort of romanticism involved. It comes from the system of education. They have a lot of knowledge, so they become cadres very quickly.”

FULL ARTICLE (Finanacial Times) (paywall)

Photo: United Nations Photo/Flickr

CrisisWatch N°115  |  (01 Mar 2013)

The assassination on 6 February of opposition leader Chokri Belaïd sparked Tunisia’s worst political crisis since the 2011 revolution. The killing triggered mass protests throughout the country against the ruling Islamist party An-Nahda, and in turn counter-protests by An-Nahda supporters. Having dissolved the government in response to the assassination, Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali later resigned after his plan to form an interim cabinet of technocrats collapsed in the face of opposition from his own An-Nahda party.

Syria’s conflict continued to exact a horrific toll, with the number of dead, wounded and displaced rising. The Assad regime further escalated violence, reportedly firing ballistic missiles into civilian neighbourhoods, while reports also emerged of its mistreatment of prisoners; the rebels continued to make steady gains; signs of intensifying communal and sectarian friction continued to emerge. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees called the humanitarian situation “dramatic beyond description”. As yet there is little sign of progress in advancing a political solution to the crisis.

The Syrian conflict continues to threaten to destabilise neighbouring Lebanon. Ever more refugees flow across the border and Hizbollah appears increasingly sucked into the fighting. Meanwhile recent controversy over a proposed new electoral law exposed rising sectarianism and mistrust between the various Lebanese communities.

In Yemen, tensions between southern separatists on the one hand and state security forces and the Islamist party, Islah, on the other reached their highest levels since early 2012, and could lead to further violence. Clashes between separatist protesters and security forces in the South left at least six people dead. The UN Security Council warned that the actions of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh and separatist leader Ali Salim al-Bid threatened to undermine the country’s democratic transition.

North Korea conducted its third nuclear test on 12 February, a reaction to the UN Security Council’s January resolution condemning its satellite launch last December. As the Security Council held immediate emergency talks, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned the nuclear test as “deeply destabilising”. China also declared publicly its “firm opposition” to the test and summoned the North Korean ambassador to Beijing to express its dissatisfaction.

Tension increased ahead of Guinea’s forthcoming legislative elections. The electoral commission, accelerating its preparations for the vote scheduled for 12 May, controversially validated the choice of two companies to undertake a revision of voter rolls. The opposition, who believe the companies are open to political pressure, responded by withdrawing from electoral preparations, and opposition supporters protested in Conakry and other cities.

In Bangladesh, violent Islamist protests against the country’s 1971 war crimes tribunal intensified, as protesters faced off against a popular movement in support of death sentences for those accused, including senior leaders of the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami. One of the organisers of the demonstrations in support of death sentences was hacked to death in a suspected Jamaat-e-Islami attack mid-February. Dozens have been killed in clashes since the tribunal sentenced a Jamaat-e-Islami leader to death on 28 February, and violence was continuing. The government faces growing calls to ban Jamaat-e-Islami.

In Zimbabwe, President Robert Mugabe announced that the referendum on a new constitution would be held on 16 March, as worrying reports emerged of politically-motivated violence and intimidation, and of raids on non-governmental organisations (NGOs), confiscation of their documents and equipment, and police allegations that 99 per cent of NGOs are engaged in regime change.

FULL CRISISWATCH

Photo: Bronski Beat/Flickr

International Crisis Group Urges Tunisia to Confront Salafism | Tunisia Live

By Elena Lesley

A report released Wednesday by a Brussels-based NGO offers an in-depth examination of Salafism in Tunisia and provides recommendations for how government, civil society, and religious organizations can confront challenges posed by the growing movement.

Although it is unclear who assassinated opposition leader Chokri Belaid last week, the fact that so many Tunisians immediately assigned blame to Salafists has “once again brought this issue to the fore,” according to the executive summary of the International Crisis Group (ICG) report “Tunisia: Violence and the Salafi Challenge.”

FULL ARTICLE (Tunisia Live)

Photo: BockoPix/Flickr

Tunisia: Violence and the Salafi Challenge

Tunis/Brussels  |   13 Feb 2013

As Tunisia faces the most critical phase of its transition after Chokri Belaïd’s assassination, its leaders must devise a calibrated response to the various challenges posed by the rise of Salafism.

Tunisia: Violence and the Salafi Challenge, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines three distinct problems: the marginalisation of young citizens for whom Salafism – and, occasionally, violence – is an easy way out; ambiguity surrounding both the views of An-Nahda, the ruling Islamist party, and the country’s religious identity; and a jihadi threat that ought to be neither ignored, nor exaggerated. It also outlines steps necessary to tackle the immediate crisis following Belaïd’s murder.

As elsewhere throughout the region, the Salafi phenomenon has been steadily growing for years and accelerated in the wake of the 2010-2011 uprising. Yet, for now, despite the former regime’s ouster, the security vacuum, economic problems, strikes and various protest movements as well as the release and return from exile of numerous jihadis, the country has experienced neither armed conflict, nor widespread violence nor major terrorist attack. An-Nahda helped avert the worse thanks to its prudent management of radical religious groups through a mix of dialogue, persuasion and co-optation.

But such management has its limitations. An-Nahda is in an increasingly uncomfortable position, caught between non-Islamists who accuse it of excessive laxity and Salafis who denounce it whenever it takes a harder line. 

“Politically, these tensions are giving rise to an acute dilemma”, said Michaël Ayari, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Tunisia. “The more the party highlights its religious identity, the more it worries non-Islamists; the more it follows a pragmatic line, the more it alienates its constituency and creates an opening for Salafis”.

There is not much doubt that the non-Islamist opposition has displayed excessive alarm and that it sometimes levels unsubstantiated accusations. Nor is there much question that it is finding it hard to accept the reality of Islamists governing their country. But the fact that they are exaggerated does not mean that these fears are baseless. Rather, it means that one must clearly define and distinguish them, and offer finely-tuned remedies. Arbitrarily lumping together incidents linked to poverty and unemployment, attempts to impose a strict moral order, a political assassination and jihadi violence would only draw Salafis toward their more radical wings.

The most immediate task is to resolve the current political crisis. Establishing an independent commission to investigate the assassination and an all-party dialogue committee to agree on a roadmap for the transition would be important steps. Beyond that, measures are required to provide social and economic support to underprivileged areas; promote a version of Islam rooted in Tunisia’s reformist movement; and bolster security by better equipping and training police and security forces, notably in non-lethal crowd control, as well as ensuring closer cooperation with bordering countries.

“The government and An-Nahda face considerable challenges, made all the more urgent by Chokri Belaïd’s murder”, says Robert Malley, Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa Program Director. “In the absence of an appropriate answer by the authorities and the dominant Islamist party, violence in all its shades – whether tied to social, demographic, urban, political or religious causes – could well cross a perilous threshold”.

FULL REPORT (French only)