International Crisis Group

Crisis Group’s Senior Iran Adviser Ali Vaez’s recent piece for the Arms Control Association: “Iran’s Nuclear Program and the Sanctions Siege” (paywall)

Photo: Alex Jagendorf/Flickr

Will China rein in North Korea? | CBS News

By Shannon van Sant

In response to new United Nations sanctions, North Korea has canceled the armistice that ended the Korean War, ended a non-aggression pact with Seoul and cut off a military hotline meant to defuse incidents along the Korean border. North Korea’s actions have been coupled with verbal threats to “miserably destroy” U.S. troops and launch “pre-emptive nuclear strikes” and “final destruction” of Seoul.

As Pyongyang’s longtime ally and next-door neighbor, China could play a role in pressuring the regime, but how much influence Beijing has is unclear. China supported the last round of sanctions from the U.N., which places new limits on North Korean trade, banking and travel.

“The resolution is a strong one,” Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt of the International Crisis Group told CBS News. “It takes sanctions a step further than the previous resolutions. The question will always be the extent to which we see implementation.”

FULL ARTICLE (CBS News)

Photo: Joseph A Ferris III/Flickr

Expanded UN sanctions on North Korea prompt rage from Pyongyang | Guardian

By Tania Branigan

North Korea has said it is cancelling a hotline and non-aggression pact with the South after the United Nations security council unanimously backed a toughened sanctions regime over the country’s third nuclear test.

Pyongyang issued a series of warnings in the run-up to Thursday’s vote, and in the hours before the council met it raised the threat of a pre-emptive nuclear strike on the United States. Experts point out it has a history of bellicose statements without matching action, and do not believe it capable of mounting a nuclear warhead on a missile that could reach the US, but expect the North to take action of some kind in response.

Shortly after the resolution was agreed the North’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, the body dealing with cross-border affairs on the peninsula, announced the cancellation of the hotline and non-aggression pact, repeating its threat to retaliate with “crushing strikes” if enemies trespass on to its territory and to cancel nuclear disarmament agreements with the South.

FULL ARTICLE (The Guardian)

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Analysis: North Korea nuclear-test drama rehashes old script | Reuters

By Paul Eckert and Michael Martina

“Not only are there many other ways China provides economic support to North Korea, but Beijing is not going to push the regime to the wall, because they don’t want a war and they don’t want a change to the status quo that favors the U.S.,” said Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, the Beijing-based Northeast Asia director for the International Crisis Group.

In a foreshadowing of how difficult negotiations over new sanctions will be, diplomats at the United Nations said China initially bristled on Tuesday at the wording in a U.N. Security Council draft statement that the nuclear test was “a clear threat to international peace and security”.

Eventually, Beijing came around.

FULL ARTICLE (Reuters)

Photo: Joseph Ferris III/Reuters

China support for N. Korea to survive nuke test: analysts | AFP via GlobalPost

China is unlikely to punish troublesome ally North Korea harshly for Tuesday’s nuclear test, analysts say, even though Chinese state media had warned the North of a “heavy price” if it went ahead.

There was no immediate official reaction to the test in Beijing — China is in the middle of its biggest annual holiday, the Lunar New Year.

But after the North’s rocket launch in December, China expressed “regret”, while repeating calls for calm.

In recent weeks the state-run Global Times has issued strongly-worded editorials urging Beijing to take a tougher line on Pyongyang, saying it would have to pay dearly for another atomic test.

But China has long supported its unpredictable neighbour for fear that instability could bring refugees flooding across the border, a US-led military escalation in the region or even ultimately a unified Korea with a US military presence next door.

“I think that China is very angry about this test,” said Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, Northeast Asia director of the International Crisis Group think tank.

She said she expected “stronger reactions” from the Communist Party’s new leader Xi Jinping than his predecessors.

FULL ARTICLE (AFP via GlobalPost)

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North Korea conducts third nuclear test | AP via ABC News

By Hyung-jin Kim and Foster Klug

Defying U.N. warnings, North Korea on Tuesday conducted its third nuclear test in the remote, snowy northeast, taking a crucial step toward its goal of building a bomb small enough to be fitted on a missile capable of striking the United States.

North Korea said the atomic test was merely its “first response” to what it called U.S. threats, and said it will continue with unspecified “second and third measures of greater intensity” if Washington maintains its hostility.

The underground test, which set off powerful seismic waves, drew immediate condemnation from Washington, the U.N. and others. Even its only major ally, China, summoned the North’s ambassador for a dressing-down.

FULL ARTICLE (AP via ABC News)

Photo: Joseph Ferris III/Flickr

North Korea nuclear test: Pyongyang threatens ‘stronger response’ | The Guardian

By Justin McCurry and Tania Branigan

In October 2012, a spokesman from the North’s national defence commission told state media the country had built a missile capable of striking the US but did not provide further details. A missile featured in an April 2012 military parade appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile but its authenticity has not been verified by foreign experts.

Daniel Pinkston of the International Crisis Group in Seoul said: “The question is whether things could spiral. I agree there should be some costs and consequences, but as far as believing the consequences should deter them – I think that’s wishful thinking.

“The [North Koreans] view the world as hostile and menacing; and if even China is hostile, then even more so. Other people might think OK, they will be more cautious and have second thoughts because even China will take action. But, from their point of view, it reaffirms why they need [a nuclear programme]. When the world is like this, do you not want to be a nuclear power?”

FULL ARTICLE (The Guardian)

Photo: Joseph Ferris III/Flickr