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"The military has become more professional, but as it doubles in size and deploys across the country, the reluctance to outline a clear division of labour between the security forces poses greater risks."
—from Crisis Group’s recent report, Timor-Leste: Stability at What Cost?
Sudan army men jailed up to 5 years over ‘coup’ | AFP via GlobalPost
Sudan has experienced at least seven coups or attempted coups in its 57-year history.
Following the plot revelations, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, a think-tank, said that a coup to overthrow Bashir’s crisis-ridden administration could further destabilise the country.
“A coup or a military campaign to topple the regime would be a very dangerous proposition risking even greater violence and further disintegration,” ICG said.
FULL ARTICLE (AFP via GlobalPost)
Photo: Steve Evans/Flickr
Totonicapán: Tension in Guatemala’s Indigenous Hinterland
Guatemala City/Bogotá/Brussels | 6 Feb 2013
The killing of protestors last October was a tragedy foretold by those who have long warned against Guatemala’s use of the armed forces to maintain domestic peace.
Totonicapán: Tension in Guatemala’s Indigenous Hinterland, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines how using the army for law enforcement and to maintain public order in a country with extensive economic inequalities is especially perilous. The danger became tragically clear on 4 October 2012, when soldiers apparently opened fire on a march protesting high electricity prices and demanding affordable education and recognition and promotion of indigenous rights in the highland Maya town of Totonicapán, killing six and injuring more than 30.
“Tensions are high in many indigenous areas over issues such as mining and access to land, education and electricity’’, says Mary Speck, Crisis Group’s Senior Guatemala Analyst. “This makes it all the more urgent for Guatemala to build civilian security forces trained to manage demonstrations without resorting to violence”.
Protests, especially among the desperately poor indigenous population, are on the rise, as a multitude of issues fuel conflict in many rural areas. The recent past makes such unrest particularly dangerous. Between 1960 and 1996, the country suffered one of the most brutal counter-insurgency campaigns in Latin American history, during which an estimated 200,000 people died, most of them from Maya communities in the western highlands.
Although initially sceptical that soldiers had used lethal force, President Otto Pérez Molina did the right thing by allowing prosecutors to conduct an investigation that has so far resulted in charges against an army colonel and eight soldiers. He has also promised to refrain from sending armed soldiers to demonstrations, though his government continues to use the military to supplement the deficiencies of civilian police who are overwhelmed even by ordinary street crime much less the drug cartels that now penetrate Guatemala.
The government needs to give indigenous populations a voice and a stake in the formulation and implementation of policies that affect their culture and livelihoods. It also needs to make police reform a top priority, establishing a timeline and benchmarks for transferring law enforcement duties away from the military, as required under the 1996 peace accords.
The Congress needs to establish an effective legal framework that allows indigenous communities to resolve legitimate concerns about the environmental and social impact of hydroelectric and mining projects. Investors should cooperate with indigenous and environmental activists to implement extractive industry best practices designed to protect local interests. Finally, leaders from across the political spectrum should work to ensure that indigenous peoples – who make up half or nearly half the population – secure the representation they deserve within the country’s political institutions.
“The onus is not on the national government alone. Local and communal authorities, as well as organisations that represent indigenous and rural interests, need to negotiate in good faith to reach democratic compromises on how to manage natural resources”, says Javier Ciurlizza, Crisis Group’s Latin America and Caribbean Program Director”. “Investors should perform environmental and human rights due diligence, focusing on the special needs and challenges faced by indigenous communities”.
Russia Keeps Tajik Base, Risking Taliban Face-Off | RIA Novosti
By Alexey Eremenko
Russia won a 30-year deal on a military base in Tajikistan, but the price includes risk of placing Russian servicemen under fire if violence flares up in volatile Central Asia.
Moscow and Dushanbe clinched an agreement on Friday on a Russian military base in Tajikistan, which will remain in the country until at least 2042, a Russian presidential aide said.
Photo: Presidential Press and Information Office/Wikimedia Commons
Uncertainty surrounds North Korean military shake up | Deustche Welle
As North Korea’s army undergoes an unexpected reshuffle, analysts are speculating as to what this could mean for the future of relations between the North and the South.
Video: Parade rehearsal along the Taedong River Credit: Rapidtravelchai/Flickr
Syrian Government Forces Escalate Attacks | Voice of America
By Edward Yeranian
Syrian government forces stepped up their attacks across the country Sunday, employing artillery barrages in the flashpoint city of Homs, as well as the suburbs of Damascus and Aleppo, and the towns of Rastan, Telbiseh and Deir ez Zor.
Webcam images showed thick plumes of smoke rising from artillery strikes across the besieged city of Homs Sunday, as shells crashed into apartment blocks and other buildings. Witnesses report increasingly desperate conditions, with little respite in the shelling.
READ ARTICLE (Voice of America)
Photo: Ugarit News
For Yemen’s New President, a Battle for Control and a Tug of War With the Past | New York Times
By Laura Kasinof
SANA, Yemen — A military ceremony that took place here last month seemed to indicate a smooth transition from Yemen’s former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to its new leader, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi.
Mr. Saleh’s nephew Brig. Gen. Tariq Saleh ceded his post leading one of the country’s most well-armed military regiments — the Third Brigade, based in the mountains around Sana — to Brig. Gen. Abdul-Rahman al-Halili, who was Mr. Hadi’s pick for the job.
Photo: Yahya Arhab/European Pressphoto Agency
Egyptian army’s pledges of retreat could be an illusion: Analysts | Al Arabiya
Egypt’s ruling military has promised a return to the barracks once a new president is elected, but the army’s formidable political and economic weight means that such a withdrawal could be an illusion, analysts say.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), in charge of the country since a popular uprising ousted longtime president Hosni Mubarak, has repeatedly pledged to hand over the keys of the country by the end of June after landmark presidential polls.
The power transfer will symbolize the end of a turbulent transition period marked by violent protests, with the army accused of orchestrating the violence, maintaining a repressive apparatus and holding on to its privileges.
But the powerful institution insists it has kept its promise to lead the country towards democratization, touting its ability to maintain a relative stability compared with other “Arab Spring” countries like Libya or Syria.
“The army is the only institution in the country that works. It still enjoys some popularity, it has real economic power while the police is unable to reorganize itself to maintain order,” said Tewfik Aclimandos, Egypt specialist at the University Paris I.
“It has the ability to remain an important political actor for many more years,” he said.
For Hassan Nafea, a leading Egyptian political columnist, “the role of the army will depend very much on the president to be elected.”
If he comes from the old regime such as the ex-foreign minister and former Arab League chief Amr Moussa, or Ahmed Shafiq, the last prime minister to serve under Mubarak, “the army will continue to play an important role, and there will be no reform regarding its role or its place.”
Voice of America | Zimbabwe’s Military Takes Aim At Draft Constitution
By: Blessing Zulu
Zimbabwe’s constitutional-making process faces collapse as members of the military and hardliners from President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu PF team-up to resist key reforms.
As a result, the parliamentary select committee writing the nation’s new charter has called for an urgent meeting Monday to deal with the impending crisis.
Army chief of staff Major General Martin Chedondo this week accused the select committee of “trying to bring in and popularize foreign ideas, values and ethos which were never the way Zimbabweans used to live and respect.”
Zanu PF sources told VOA throughout this week that securocrats have been meeting the party’s technical committee on the constitution to make demands that are likely to torpedo the process.
Among the demands being made by the army and also adopted by the party, is the view that President Mugabe retains his executive powers and be allowed to unilaterally appoint service chiefs.
Proposals in the draft constitution say the president must appoint service chiefs in consultation with the Defense Services Commission, which is appointed by the president and subject to approval by parliament.
The army is also bitter about what it is calling over-regulation of the military’s political activities. This comes amid reports that securocrats are increasingly tightening their grip on Zanu PF as several members of the Central Intelligence Organization, police and retired army officers, line up to stand on party tickets in the next election.
The hardliners also want the attorney general to retain his sweeping powers. The draft takes prosecuting powers from the AG, who becomes only a legal adviser to the president while a new National Prosecuting Authority is created.
Zanu PF hardliners are also not happy with clauses that they say give women unnecessary rights.
Co-chairman Munyaradzi Paul Mangwana, Zanu PF’s point person in the select committee, told VOA that the Constitution seeks no security sector reforms.
But Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s representative co-chairman Douglas Mwonzora says the army is trying to hijack the constitution-making process.
Co-chairman Edward Mkhosi of the Welshman Ncube MDC says the army has no right to interfere with the select committee’s process.
Political analyst Trevor Maisiri of the International Crisis Group says the army’s intervention spells disaster for the constitutional writing process.
Photo: Al Jazeera English
Bloomberg | Myanmar Generals Must Respect Elections, President’s Aide Says
Myanmar’s military contains smart people who have no intention of seizing back power as the former dictatorship transitions to democracy, according to President Thein Sein’s top political adviser.
“The military has to accept the election result,” Ko Ko Hlaing said in an e-mail. “Our military is a very obedient one, senior officials are well educated and I hope there will be no more coups.”
Thein Sein has won praise from world leaders after freeing political prisoners, easing media restrictions and convincing opposition chief Aung San Suu Kyi to stand for parliament since taking power 14 months ago. His party’s election win in 2010, while criticized by Western nations at the time, ended about five decades of direct military control.
Investors are watching to see whether Myanmar’s political opening will proceed quickly or face opposition from entrenched interests as the country looks ahead to national elections in 2015. Thein Sein remains undecided on whether he will stand for a second term, Ko Ko Hlaing said.
“Our president hasn’t revealed any desire on the next term,” he said in the e-mail. “So I couldn’t say whether he will run or not in the next election.” Hlaing said in a May 2 interview in Yangon that Thein Sein had “laid the foundation” for political reform and if his tenure is “quite successful, he may be content with his works.”
Presidential Contender
Another contender for the presidency in 2015 is Shwe Mann, the former No. 3 in the junta and now the speaker of parliament’s lower house, according to the International Crisis Group.
Photo: State.gov/Wikimedia Commons
