The International Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict.
crisisgroup.org
BRUSSELS (AP) — European officials had a message Thursday for French forces fighting on the front lines of the battle against Islamist extremists in the troubled African country of Mali: We’re behind you all the way — and right behind you is exactly where we plan to stay.
French-Led Strikes on Mali Islamists Threaten Revenge Attacks | Bloomberg
By Franz Wild & Pauline Bax
French and West African military intervention in Mali runs the risk of provoking revenge attacks by Islamic militants, spreading instability in a region rich in gold, uranium and cocoa, said analysts from Dakar to London.
“When you send troops to the north of Mali there is the possibility of reprisals in terms of terrorist attacks,” Gilles Yabi, the West Africa program director of Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said today in an interview from the Senegalese capital, Dakar. “These countries don’t have the level of security and protection that western countries have. France itself is taking a risk, in terms of the hostages and in terms of terrorist attacks.”
Photo: Magharebia/Flickr
from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy
by Louise Arbour
Sahel: Mali, Nigeria, and beyond
Instability in the Sahel region of Africa increased on a number of fronts in 2012, and attempts to stem that trend will be high on many countries’ agendas in 2013. Mali — where a military coup toppled the government in March, while separatists and al Qaeda-linked fundamentalists took over the country’s north — tops the list of regional troubles.
The coming year will see both the rollout of a necessary international intervention in Mali, and possibly more important, a political process to reunify the country. On the former, the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) and the African Union have already approved a mission of 3,300 soldiers to help the Malian state wrest control of the northern part of the country from Islamist fighters, pending international endorsement of such a move by the U.N. Security Council.
Fear of an intervention without end has led to reluctance in many quarters about deploying an international force in the vast northern desert. But the risks of inaction are just as great. Getting boots on the ground will take some time, as will the desperately needed restructuring and training of Malian units by a separate EU mission.
On the political side, it is necessary to make sure that the process of reuniting the country is truly inclusive. Some of the groups controlling the north are clearly beyond the pale — they are terrorists, and they are not interested in coming to the negotiation table. Others may be more amenable to a deal. But much depends on the Malian government’s political and military leadership, which remains shaky after the interim prime minister was forced to resign by the military in December. The new and ostensibly more consensual prime minister might facilitate a national dialogue aimed at designing a roadmap to resolve Mali’s political crisis and organizing for elections in 2013. However, with the military coup leaders showing a worrying propensity to remain enmeshed in civilian political life, the country’s future remains uncertain.
The Sahel region also has another deeply worrying conflict in northern Nigeria, where the radical Islamist group Boko Haram has been blamed for thousands of deaths in recent years. The government’s response has been an uneven mix of confused talk about possible negotiations and heavy-handed, often indiscriminate, security efforts that may have aggravated the violence and sent more recruits into the hands of the extremists. Without concerted attention and a dramatic about-face in government policy, look for 2013 to be another bloody year in northern Nigeria.
Photo: EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection/Flickr
New Mali PM crafts unity government to win back north | AFP via The Daily Star Lebanon
BAMAKO: Mali’s new Prime Minister Diango Cissoko started drawing up a new unity government Wednesday that could bring the consensus needed to launch a foreign military intervention in the Islamist-occupied north.
While Cissoko pledged to regain control of the country’s north, international condemnation poured in over the ouster of his predecessor Cheick Modibo Diarra and meddling by a former junta still seen as pulling the strings in the capital.
The new premier has not mentioned the international force which has been mired in uncertainty, but observers say Diarra was seen as an obstacle to reaching consensus and a new government could pave the way to its deployment.
EU foreign policy head Catherine Ashton on Wednesday hailed Cissoko’s nomination, saying that he was a gifted negotiator with good knowledge of Mali’s political scene who had an ability to bring people together.
Gilles Yabi of the International Crisis Group told AFP that “optimistically” Cissoko could “unblock the situation. He is a more reliable, competent and impartial representative than Diarra was.”
FULL ARTICLE (APF via The Daily Star Lebanon)
Photo: Rgaudin/Wikimedia Commons
Analysis: Premier’s ouster complicates Mali crisis | IRIN
BAMAKO, 12 December 2012 (IRIN) - Mali’s coup-triggered political crisis that has seen half the country seized by Islamist militias deepened with the arrest and resignation this week of interim Prime Minister Cheick Modibo Diarra - something which could complicate international peace efforts, say analysts and observers.
Nine months ago, renegade troops overthrew President Amadou Toumani Touré, making possible an Islamist conquest of the north. Under international pressure and mediation by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the junta turned over power to a civilian leadership, but political wrangling and the influence of ex-coup leader Amadou Sanogo have often hobbled negotiations to resolve the crisis.
Diarra, a 60-year-old astrophysicist appointed prime minister in April, was arrested by troops on the evening of 10 December as he was about to leave for Paris. The soldiers are reported to have been acting on Sanogo’s orders.
Diarra was accused of jeopardizing a planned national dialogue on restoring democracy. In a televised address, he did not specify why he quit, but relations between him, Sanogo and interim President Dioncounda Traoré had been strained.
Less than 24 hours after his resignation, the president appointed the country’s former ombudsman and a seasoned public administrator, Diango Cissoko, as the new prime minister.
Photo: Darwinek/Wikimedia Commons
Mali prime minister resigns amid ‘period of crisis’| The Guardian
By David Smith
Wearing a dark suit and sweating before the cameras, Mali’s prime minister, Cheikh Modibo Diarra, announced his resignation on Tuesday in a live 4am broadcast on state television, admitting: “Our country is living through a period of crisis.”
The 60-year-old former astrophysicist, who worked for Nasa and Microsoft, had been arrested hours earlier and forced to quit by the country’s military junta.
France called for a new government to be formed quickly and said the turn of events enhanced the case for foreign military intervention. But observers warned that plans for a UN-backed force to combat Islamist insurgents in northern Mali were now “on ice”.
Photo: United States State Department/Wikimedia Commons
"International attention should remain focused on Côte d’Ivoire’s stabilisation, which is all the more crucial as its neighbour, Mali, has descended into a deep and lasting crisis."
—from Crisis Group’s most recent report, Côte d’Ivoire: Defusing Tensions
Tuareg separatists and Islamic extremists clash in northern Mali | LA Times
By Emily Alpert
Rebels who took over northern Mali this year clashed Friday with Islamists who had ejected them from major cities, spokesmen for both sides told reporters.
A Tuareg rebel spokesman said the clashes near Ansango were part of an offensive to recapture the Gao region, Agence France-Presse reported. Oumar Ould Hamaha, spokesman for the Islamist group MUJAO, told the Associated Press the Tuareg started the fray by kidnapping a dozen of its members.
Photo: Garrondo/Wikimedia Commons
Mali: No Quick Fixes for a Complex Crisis | allAfrica
By Gilles Yabi
The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) has agreed on a revised concept of operations for the deployment of an international military force of 3,300 soldiers to help the Malian state wrest control of the northern part of the country from Islamist fighters.
This step, taken on November 11 following a collective effort by regional and international partners, is welcome. But military intervention alone cannot solve the country’s deep crisis.
The situation in Mali is desperately fractious. A military coup toppled the government in March, while separatists and al-Qaeda-linked fundamentalists took over the northern half of the country. Mali is now divided geographically, politically, militarily and religiously.
Photo: Magharebia/Flickr
