from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy

by Louise Arbour

Kenya

Despite reforms to address the shortcomings and violence of the 2007 polls in Kenya, significant structural drivers of conflict remain. Youth unemployment, poverty, and inequality are high, security sector reform has stalled, and ongoing land disputes continue to deepen ethnic polarization. As the planned March 2013 elections approach, the risk of political violence is high.

Two leading presidential aspirants, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, have been charged with crimes against humanity and are due to face trial at the ICC in April 2013, raising hopes that finally a serious attempt is being made to erode long-standing immunity for political elites. But the cases could just as easily dash hopes of accountability if they aggravate ethnic tensions or tarnish political opponents, leading to a fresh bout of violence.

Having an indictee as president, or as vice president, will have enormous implications for not only Kenya’s foreign relations but also internal reforms. The 2013 elections will likely play out against a backdrop of threatened attacks by Somalia-based militant group al-Shabab and protests by the separatist Mombasa Republican Council. Either could provoke a backlash against the country’s sizable ethnic Somali and Muslim communities, causing further destabilization during what will already be a difficult year for Kenya.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Policy)

Photo: Lorena Pajares/Flickr

MRC Chairman Released From Kenya Prison | Voice of America

By Roopa Gogineni

Despite police allegations, Abdullahi Halakhe, the Kenya analyst at the International Crisis Group, does not believe the MRC is militarized. But he said this could change.

“The most pressing issue right now is the capacity of this group to cause violence between now and elections and that they do,” said Halakhe. “I am not convinced they actually have the capacity to secede. What I’m more and more worried about is the group’s capacity to cause violence before elections.”

FULL ARTICLE (Voice of America)

Photo: Lorena Pajares/Flickr

Kenyan Ambush Death Toll Rises | Voice of America

By Gabe Joselow

NAIROBI —Officials in Kenya now say at least 42 police officers were killed in an ambush Saturday, as more bodies have been recovered. Police believe cattle rustlers were behind one of the most shocking attacks in the country’s modern history.

Family members of the slain police officers waited at Wilson Airport in Nairobi Tuesday for the bodies to be returned, four days after the ambush in Samburu County.

The long, anxious wait has added insult to grief, particularly to Muslims here who say their religion requires them to bury the bodies as soon as possible.

FULL ARTICLE (Voice of America)

Photo: Joachim Huber/Flickr

Briefing: Kenya’s coastal separatists - menace or martyrs? | IRIN

MOMBASA, 24 October 2012 (IRIN) - Kenyan security forces are conducting a wave of arrests of members of the Mombasa Republican Council (MRC), who are accused of incitement and acts of violence. Below, IRIN offers an overview of the coastal secessionist group. 

What is the MRC? 

Formed in the late 1990s, the group aims to counter decades of the perceived marginalization of the coastal region’s indigenous population, which it says successive governments have done nothing to address. 

The MRC remained largely inactive until 2008, when it gained widespread publicity due in large part to a new slogan emblazoned on caps and T-shirts: “Pwani si Kenya”, Swahili for “the coast is not Kenya.” 

Leaders claim a membership of 1.5 million. One independent analyst told IRIN 100,000 was a more plausible figure. 

In addition to calling for secession, the MRC has urged its followers to boycott the general election in March 2013. 

FULL ARTICLE (IRIN)

Photo: DEMOSH/Flickr

Kenyan Troops Try to Keep Peace in Tana River | Voice of America

By Roopa Gogineni

KILELENGWANI, KENYA — Thousands have fled violence that claimed more than 100 lives in August and September in Kenya’s Tana River District. One-thousand paramilitary troops have been deployed to keep a tenuous peace between the Pokomo and Orma communities.  

Today in Kilelengwani, Marabou storks circle the carcasses of cows scattered between the remains of still-smoldering homes.

FULL ARTICLE (Voice of America)

Photo: WOVOC/Flickr

Kenya Tensions Ease Following Riots Over Cleric Assassination | Voice of America

By Roopa Gogineni

Security has been restored in the Kenyan city of Mombasa after heavy rioting early this week. On Monday, the assassination of Muslim cleric Aboud Rogo Mohamed triggered the protests, but analysts believe the perceived marginalization of coastal communities underlie the unrest.

FULL ARTICLE (VOA)

Photo: ARC - The Alliance of Religions and Conservation/Flickr

The Nation | International Criminal Court on Trial in Kenya

By the time International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo held a press conference in The Hague in December 2010 to announce that he was charging six Kenyans with crimes against humanity, speculation about the names on his list had been rife here for months. At the newspaper where I work, various reporters claimed to have it on good authority that such-and-such a person would be cited as having played a key role in the violence that followed the contentious 2007 presidential election. Security was stepped up in areas thought ripe for a renewal of the fighting, which had left more than 1,000 people dead and brought former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to town to broker a peace agreement. Having lived through the post-election period, I couldn’t help being a bit nervous.

In the end, Kenyans’ good sense prevailed; even the area that had experienced the most vicious attacks remained calm (those attacks, while triggered by the disputed election, can be traced back to longstanding land disputes between members of the Kalenjin and Kikuyu communities). But the ICC process—the prospect of which had been roiling the country since Annan threatened to involve the court if Kenya didn’t set up a credible tribunal itself—was only getting started. Now that the country has been plunged into full-on campaigning for the next presidential election—currently scheduled for March 2013, though the date is still being disputed—the ICC looms ever larger in public life.

Every twist and turn of the ICC process has been the stuff of high drama: thanks to live televised pre-trial proceedings, Chief Judge Ekaterina Tredafilova became as well known as Kenya’s top soccer stars, and bitter battles have erupted in Parliament over the question of whether anyone charged by the ICC should be allowed to run for president. This latter is an issue of considerable relevance, since two of the four people now awaiting trial (charges against the other two were not confirmed) are presidential aspirants. One, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, is the US-educated son of the country’s first president. The other, William Ruto, is a prominent member of Parliament. The two have been traveling the country together holding “prayer meetings” at which their supporters portray them as victims of a neocolonial effort to subjugate Africa.

FULL ARTICLE (The Nation)