International Crisis Group

Egyptian laws, arrests worry liberals and the West | Reuters

By Tom Perry

The state prosecutor issued arrest warrants for five leading democracy activists accused of inciting violence, and separately summoned popular television satirist Bassem Youssef - Egypt’s answer to CNN “Daily Show” comic Jon Stewart - for questioning for allegedly insulting the president and Islam.

“The Brotherhood feel that they are besieged and encircled by many political forces around them - lately, the United States included,” said Yasser El-Shimy, Egypt analyst with the International Crisis Group, a think-tank.

“I wouldn’t say there is a case of authoritarian retrenchment here but … the Brothers adopt a really strict view of democracy in which getting 50 percent-plus-one allows them to pretty much do as they please, and that is what they are doing,” he said.

FULL ARTICLE (Reuters)

Photo: Bora S. Kamel/Flickr

CrisisWatch N°116 | 01 April 2013

In the Central African Republic, a peace deal signed two months ago in Libreville collapsed as the Seleka rebel alliance, having repeatedly violated the ceasefire, seized the capital Bangui on 24 March. President Francois Bozizé fled to Cameroon. Seleka leader Michel Djotodia declared himself president and suspended the constitution and National Assembly. The African Union condemned Seleka’s “unconstitutional change” of government, suspending CAR’s membership and imposing sanctions against Seleka’s leaders. Despite its rapid seizure of power, the Seleka coalition appears fragile and prone to fragmentation, prompting fears that factions may take up arms again. Crisis Group identifies a conflict risk for Central African Republic.

Tensions continued to escalate on the Korean peninsula. The UN Security Council’s 7 March resolution condemning North Korea’s February nuclear test prompted Pyongyang to threaten pre-emptive nuclear strikes against “invaders”. North Korea announced that it would no longer be bound by the 1953 Korean War armistice, and cut off communications hotlines with South Korea and the UN Command in Seoul. The North Korean army ordered all its rocket and long-range artillery units to be combat-ready and targeting U.S. bases and territory, and the government declared North Korea to be in a “state of war” with South Korea. In a show of force the U.S. flew B-52 and B-2 bombers over South Korea and deployed F-22 stealth fighters to the South as part of an ongoing military exercise. On 31 March, a rare Central Committee meeting in Pyongyang declared nuclear weapons are non-negotiable and North Korea’s nuclear status should be written into law.

In a new outbreak of intercommunal violence in Myanmar in the central town of Meiktila on 20-22 March, more than 40 people were killed and over 12,000 displaced, and hundreds of mainly Muslim-owned buildings destroyed, in attacks by Buddhist mobs. President Thein Sein imposed a state of emergency in the area and deployed the military to restore calm. Amid speculation that the attacks were pre-planned by extremists, there was widespread concern as the violence spread to towns and villages in other parts of the country in the following days, although there were no reported casualties from these other incidents.

The political uncertainty and paralysis gripping Lebanon worsened with the abrupt resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati on 22 March following a standoff with Hizbollah. Political instability further fed ongoing sectarian tensions and clashes, mainly in the southern town of Saida and the northern city of Tripoli, where a dozen people were killed in clashes between Sunni and Alawite militants 22-24 March. Regular cross-border shelling by Syria continued, and the Syrian regime for the first time launched air strikes inside Lebanon.

Within Syria the first credible reports emerged of chemical weapons use in the ongoing conflict. The government and rebels accused each other of firing a rocket loaded with chemical agents near Aleppo on 19 March, and the opposition reported two people killed in an alleged chemical missile attack on Adra, near Damascus.

Iraq’s political crisis again deepened in March. Widespread demonstrations in Sunni areas of the country have met an increasingly hardline security response, with security forces killing two Sunni protesters in Mosul on 8 March. Finance Minister Rafie al-Issawi resigned his post, as did Agriculture Minister Ezz al-Din al-Dawla, in solidarity with the protesters. Meanwhile Iraq’s parliament relied exclusively on votes from the Shia’s political blocs to pass the 2013 budget law, illustrating Baghdad’s increasingly sectarian politics.

As the stalemate between Egypt’s President Mohamed Morsi and the opposition continued, violent clashes between opponents and supporters of the ruling Muslim Brotherhood broke out outside the Islamists’ headquarters in Cairo on 22 March. Subsequent days also saw violent protests. President Morsi warned that he would take “necessary measures” to “protect the nation”, and the prosecutor general ordered the arrest of several activists. The violence took place as political demonstrations and riots in Egypt are increasingly giving way to socio-economic protest in the face of fuel shortages, inflation and price increases.

Nepal’s main parties ended months of political deadlock on 14 March. They agreed to hold elections to a new Constituent Assembly by 21 June under an interim election government, led by Supreme Court chief justice Khil Raj Regmi. The interim government will comprise retired bureaucrats, and be guided by a political committee of the four largest parties. If elections are not held in June, the government will be extended until 15 December.

Prospects for peace between Turkey’s government and Kurdish insurgents are improving after five months of negotiations between the national intelligence agency and the jailed leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan. The 21 March call by Öcalan for an eventual ceasefire and withdrawal to outside Turkish borders – and PKK’s military leader Murat Karayılan’s subsequent acceptance of the idea – are particularly positive signs.

FULL CRISISWATCH

Photo: hdptcar/Flickr

Mursi warning stirs fears in Egypt opposition | Reuters

By Tom Perry

Exactly what new steps Mursi is considering became the subject of speculation.

In late January, he declared a state of emergency rule in three cities near the Suez Canal to combat a wave of violence there. A declaration of a state of emergency elsewhere is unlikely, said Yasser El-Shimy, Egypt analyst for the International Crisis Group, adding arrests were more probable.

“My impression is that Mursi and the Brotherhood in general have had it with the violence that is taking place and they are running out of patience,” he said.

“This is definitely the strictest he has spoken regarding the rioting,” he added. “Now Mursi feels there is enough public opinion on his side to justify taking stricter measures.”

FULL ARTICLE (Reuters)

Photo: whl.travel/Flickr

International Crisis Group Warns of Socio-Economic Riots in Egypt | Atlantic Council

The International Crisis Group issued a conflict alert on Egypt on Monday.

The report states, week-long clashes and protests erupting after the sentencing of over 20 Egyptians to death in the case of the Port Said Massacre “are symptomatic of a larger trend — erosion of respect for governing institutions. In the Suez Canal Zone and the Nile Delta, protestors have violently targeted administrative buildings, symbols of an authority viewed as removed, arbitrary and impotent. The collapse of the police and increased porosity of borders with Libya and Sudan, thus a marked increase in the illegal trafficking of light arms, further enable street violence.”

ICG places responsibility both on both President Mohamed Morsi and the group from which he hails, the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as on opposition groups unwilling to compromise.

FULL ARTICLE (Atlantic Council)

Photo: Mosa’ab Elshamy/Flickr

Egypt Conflict Alert

Brussels/Cairo | 4 Feb 2013

It is difficult to know which is most dangerous: the serious uptick in street violence; President Morsi’s and the Muslim Brotherhood’s serial inability to reach out to the rest of the political class inclusively; or the opposition clinging to the hope of some extraneous event (demonstrations, foreign pressure, judicial rulings or military intervention) allowing it to gain power while bypassing arduous compromise and politics. They are tied of course: the president’s cavalier treatment of the constitution-writing process and the judiciary and the opposition’s lethargic approach to politics and rejection of Islamist legitimacy alike have eroded the authority of state institutions. This encourages in turn unrest and contributes to the economic slide. Together, these heighten risks of a complete breakdown of law and order. For two years, political factions repeatedly have failed to reach consensus on basic rules of the game, producing a transition persistently threatening to veer off the road. It is past time for the president and opposition to reach an accommodation to restore and preserve the state’s integrity.

Since President Mubarak’s ouster, the level of violence has ebbed and flowed, yet each new wave brings the country closer to tipping point. Already, some police officers, beleaguered by attacks on their headquarters, are considering removing their uniforms and going home; there is talk of brewing discontent among Central Security Forces, the riot control police; and criminal gangs along with looters profit from the chaos. There are new shocking images of police brutality. Many young Egyptians increasingly appear disillusioned with electoral politics, and some are drawn to anarchical violence.

The situation is made worse by deteriorating economic conditions. As foreign currency reserves decline, the government finds it ever more difficult to prop up the Egypt’s pound or maintain fuel and food subsidies. One should not be surprised to see larger segments of the population joining in socio-economic riots. By current trends, Egypt could find itself in a vicious cycle of economic under-performance and political instability, the one fuelling the other.

FULL ALERT

Photo: Maggie Osama/Flickr

Defterios: Why Egypt’s transition from its Arab Spring is so painful | CNN

By John Defterios

It was January 25, 2011 — day two of the World Economic Forum — when the brisk winds of change from Tahrir Square swept through the Swiss Alpine village of Davos.

Just a month before, in Tunisia, a vegetable seller triggered the Arab Spring when he doused himself with petrol and lit himself on fire. He had been frustrated by a sheer lack of opportunity, despite headline economic growth that looked promising on paper.

Tunisia, with a population of just over 10 million, is one matter. Egypt is eight times larger, and 40% of its people live on less than $2 a day.

FULL ARTICLE (CNN)

Photo: Nick Bygon/Flickr

Egypt’s armed forces chief warns unrest could cause collapse of state | The Guardian

By Patrick Kingsley

Continuing civil unrest may soon cause the collapse of the Egyptian state, the head of the country’s armed forces warned.

Parts of Egypt are in turmoil following five days of rioting in which 52 people have been killed and more than 1,000 injured after protests against President Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood and police brutality turned violent. The unrest comes two years after the start of the 2011 revolution that toppled the former dictator Hosni Mubarak.

General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s comments have sparked fears that the military might once again intervene in the day-to-day governance of Egypt, a country effectively ruled for most of the past century by army officers.

FULL ARTICLE (The Guardian)

Photo: Maggie Osama/Flickr

CrisisWatch N°112 | 01 Dec 2012

In the Democratic Republic of Congo’s east, M23 rebels launched an offensive against the national army, breaking a tenuous ceasefire agreed in August. After several days of fighting they captured the key cities of Goma and Sake in North Kivu. Thousands of civilians fled their homes. A UN Panel of Experts report confirmed continuing support for the rebels from neighbouring Rwanda and Uganda. Following a reported agreement with regional leaders, M23 rebels appear now to be withdrawing from Goma.

In Egypt President Mohammed Morsi’s controversial constitutional declaration on 22 November temporarily granted him greater powers, including immunity from judicial review, until a new constitution comes into force. The move triggered fresh protests, and pro-Morsi counter-protests, across the country, some of which turned violent. Morsi justified the declaration as necessary to prevent Mubarak-era judges from sabotaging the country’s transition. His opponents condemned it as a power-grab. The Constituent Assembly approved a draft constitution at the end of the month, after more non-Islamists withdrew from the body. Discontent about the draft’s content and its rushed completion further fuelled protests. The month’s developments have deepened polarisation between supporters and opponents of Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood. Both camps took to the streets again today.

November 2012 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations

DR Congo, Egypt

Improved Situations

-

Unchanged Situations

Afghanistan, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, China/Japan, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), Northern Ireland, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Somalia, Somaliland, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

December 2012 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alert

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Conflict Resolution Opportunity

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Full CrisisWatch