International Crisis Group

Resolve Border Issues Before Negotiating with Taliban: ICG | TOLO News

By Shakeela Ahbrimkhil

The first step in resolving the insurgency in Afghanistan is not negotiation with the Taliban but addressing the cross-border issues with Pakistan, said the International Crisis Group (ICG) in an interview with TOLOnews this week.

ICG senior analyst in Afghanistan Candace Rondeaux said there would be no insurgency if there was no conflict between the two neighbours.

“The first agenda of any negotiation process is not the Taliban, but the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan. That is number one,” Rondeaux said.

FULL ARTICLE (TOLO News)

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Afghan government could ‘collapse post-NATO’ | Al Jazeera

The Afghan government could implode after NATO troops pull out in 2014, particularly if presidential elections are fraudulent, according to a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG).

A repeat could undermine what little hope remains for stability after the Afghan government takes full responsibility for security from US-led NATO forces, the analysis by the respected Brussels-based group says.

The report, Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the 2014 Transition, says the country is on course in 2014 for another set of fraudulent elections after the chaotic presidential and parliamentary polls in 2009 and 2010.

“There is a real risk that the regime in Kabul could collapse upon NATO’s withdrawal,” Candace Rondeaux, the ICG’s senior Afghanistan analyst, says in the report.

FULL ARTICLE (Al Jazeera)

Photo: The U.S. Army/Flickr

Global Insights: Afghanistan’s Transition Meltdown? | World Politics Review

By Richard Weitz

The International Crisis Group (ICG) issued a report yesterday titled, “Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the 2014 Transition.” Although the report focuses on the political problems that Afghanistan faces, the country’s security, economic and diplomatic challenges are perhaps even more serious. 

According to the ICG, “Afghanistan is hurtling toward a devastating political crisis as the government prepares to take full control of security in 2014.” The group’s senior Afghanistan analyst, Candace Rondeaux, details how the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) are “overwhelmed and underprepared for the transition,” even as Afghan President Hamid Karzai “seems more interested in perpetuating his own power by any means rather than ensuring credibility of the political system and long-term stability.”

FULL ARTICLE (World Politics Review)

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Afghan Government could Collapse After NATO: Report | Turkish Weekly

The Afghan government could fall apart after NATO troops pull out in 2014, particularly if presidential elections that year are fraudulent, a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) said yesterday.

“There is a real risk that the regime in Kabul could collapse upon NATO’s withdrawal,” said Candace Rondeaux, the ICG’s senior Afghanistan analyst. “The window for remedial action is closing fast.” The report, Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the 2014 Transition, said the country was on course for another set of fraudulent elections after the chaotic presidential and parliamentary polls in 2009 and 2010.

FULL ARTICLE (Turkish Weekly)

Photo: Rob Bakker/Flickr

Afghanistan ‘sliding towards collapse’ | The Guardian 

By Emma Graham-Harrison 

The police and army in an increasingly violent Afghanistan will struggle to secure the country when foreign forces leave and the people face a corrupt presidential election in 2014, the Red Cross and a thinktank have warned.

At stake is the limited and fragile stability that has insulated Kabul and most other urban areas from more than a decade of escalating aggression since the US invasion. There are growing fears the country could face a full-blown civil war after Nato troops hand over security to the Afghan police and army, and leave.

FULL ARTICLE (The Guardian)

Photo: U.S. Department of Defense/Flickr 

Afghanistan facing humanitarian crisis, warns Red Cross head | The Telegraph

By Ben Farmer

Reto Stocker said he was “filled with concern” as he prepared to leave after seven years and hope for the future among Afghans had been “steadily declining”.

The assessment from one of the largest humanitarian charities in Afghanistan sharply contradicts Nato claims of progress in the 11-year-long campaign to defeat the Taliban and rebuild the country.

But his remarks followed a recent rash of similarly bleak forecasts for Afghanistan’s future as Nato troops withdraw and prepare to hand over security duties to Kabul by the end of 2014.

FULL ARTCLE (The Telegraph)

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Afghanistan headed toward political crisis, report says | New Europe

By Andrew Wagaman

According to the report, a repeat of previous elections’ chaos would trigger a constitutional crisis and consequently hurt the chances of the present government surviving the transition.

“The Afghan army and police are overwhelmed and underprepared for the transition,” Rondeaux said. “Another botched election and resultant unrest would push them to breaking point.”

FULL ARTICLE (New Europe)

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Afghan government could collapse: report | Adelaide Now

The Afghan government could fall apart after NATO troops pull out in 2014, particularly if presidential elections that year are fraudulent, a report by the International Crisis Group says.

“There is a real risk that the regime in Kabul could collapse upon NATO’s withdrawal,” said Candace Rondeaux, the ICG’s senior Afghanistan analyst.

FULL ARTICLE (AFP via Adelaide Now)

Photo: World Economic Forum/Flickr

Report: Afghanistan Headed For Crisis | RFE/RL

A new report is warning that Afghanistan is moving toward a potentially devastating political crisis as NATO-led combat forces withdraw and the Afghan government prepares to take control of security responsibilities in 2014.

The report — titled “Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the 2014 Transition” — was prepared by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG), which describes itself as an independent nongovernmental organization committed to preventing deadly conflicts.

FULL ARTICLE (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty)

Photo: US Marine Corps/Flickr