International Crisis Group

Drone Strikes In Pakistan ‘Ineffective’ | Sky News

US drone strikes targeting militants in the tribal area of Pakistan have been ineffective at preventing attacks on Nato troops, a new report has concluded.

The International Crisis Group report says that drone strikes have killed a significant number of al Qaeda leaders and commanders of the Pakistan and Afghan Taliban, but also scores of innocent civilians.

Since 2004, there have been at least 350 drone strikes in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) - mostly in North Waziristan, South Waziristan and Kurram.

But the report criticises the killing of civilians through “signature” strikes that target groups of men based on behaviour patterns associated with terrorist activity rather than known identities.

FULL ARTICLE (Sky News)

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Security and aid work in militia-controlled Afghanistan | IRIN

After the fall of the Taliban in 2001, international troops began hiring some of the militias - which had helped drive out the Taliban - as temporary security forces. 

The government initiated a disarmament, demobilization and rehabilitation (DDR) programme in early 2003, to disband militia groups and help members reintegrate into society, but progress was slow, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG). 

As the security situation deteriorated, the international forces began to sponsor many of these militias to extend their reach. Such semi-unofficial forces played an important role in providing security for the 2009 elections. 

Things took a more formal turn in 2010 when the ALP was officially recognized as the primary local defence force to help keep remote communities free from Taliban insurgents.

FULL ARTICLE (IRIN)

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China in Central Asia

Tumblr, check out our new interactive map showing the increasingly close ties China is developing with its Central Asian neighbours. And be sure to read  today’s report on China’s Central Asia Problem, which details China’s security concerns about the region — and what it’s doing to ensure stability.

crisisgroup.org

Photo: thebadgerrides/Flickr

from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy

by Louise Arbour

Afghanistan

Plagued by factionalism and corruption, the Afghan government is far from ready to assume responsibility for its own security when U.S. and NATO forces withdraw in 2014. Relations with Washington continued to deteriorate in 2012, particularly when scores were killed in February following reports that U.S. troops burned dozens of copies of the Quran and other religious materials, and when U.S. soldier Robert Bales in March shot 17 villagers, including nine children, in the southern province of Kandahar. A spate of insider attacks since then has contributed to the increased distrust between Afghan and U.S. military leaders, while friendly fire incidents undermined the Afghan National Security Forces’ morale.

The looming political transition in Kabul is possibly even more important for the future of the country and the wider region. Although President Hamid Karzai has signaled his intent to exit gracefully when his term ends in 2014, fears remain that he may try, directly or indirectly, to retain influence over the post-election setup. A reasonably credible election — something Afghanistan has yet to experience — could forge a degree of national consensus and boost popular confidence in the government’s capabilities.

The best guarantee of Afghanistan’s stability is to ensure the rule of law during the political and military transition in 2013 and 2014. If the leadership fails at this, the coming crucial period will result in deep divisions and conflicts within the ruling elite, which the Taliban-led insurgency will exploit. At worst, it could result in the fragmentation of the security services and trigger extensive internal conflict. Some possibilities for genuine progress remain — and we have to remain hopeful — but the window for action is narrowing.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Policy)

Photo: United Nations Photo/Flickr

After 10 years of Karzai’s rule, has life improved in Afghanistan? | NBC News

By Atia Abawi and F. Brinley Bruton

KABUL, Afghanistan - Many Afghans see dark clouds of uncertainty looming over the calendar as the 2014 deadline approaches for most foreign troops to withdraw, and worry that after that the international community will abandon them.

Over the last decade, billions of aid dollars have flowed into Afghanistan, and thousands of foreign soldiers and tens of thousands of civilians have died during the effort to bring peace and a modicum of prosperity to the country.  Meanwhile, the government of President Hamid Karzai has passed laws meant to improve the lives of his citizens.  Nevertheless, Afghanistan still faces huge problems, such as widespread violence, official corruption, grinding poverty and a booming narcotics trade.

FULL ARTICLE (NBC News)

Photo: United States Marine Corps Official Page/Flickr

All change | The Economist

Some confidence in the security transition, and a belief that Western governments will not abandon Afghanistan after 2014, is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for a more or less successful political transition. Foreigners can help, but most of the responsibility lies with Afghans. A report published this month by the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based NGO, described the road to the 2014 elections as long and hard. “In the current environment”, the report said, “prospects for clean elections and a smooth transition are slim. The electoral process is mired in bureaucratic confusion, institutional duplication and political machinations…There are alarming signs Karzai hopes to stack the deck for a favoured proxy.”

FULL ARTICLE (The Economist)

Photo: ISAF Media/Flickr

NATO chief calls for free elections in Afghanistan | Reuters Africa

By Adrian Croft

MAZAR-E SHARIF, Afghanistan (Reuters) - NATO’s chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen urged the Afghan government on Friday to strive for free, fair and transparent elections in the 2014 presidential poll, saying they marked a critical juncture in the country’s quest for peace.

His words came a day after President Hamid Karzai suggested foreign members be removed from the election watchdog, in a step that could be seen as bolstering his grip on power.

“I think it is essential for building trust and confidence between the Afghan people and the Afghan government that the presidential elections take place in a manner that is free, fair and transparent,” Rasmussen said in an interview with Reuters on the airstrip at Camp Marmal, a sprawling military base near Mazar-e-Sharif in northern Afghanistan.

FULL ARTICLE (Reuters Africa)

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Afghan Police School Tries to Fix Struggling Force | AP via TIME World

By Kathy Gannon

(KABUL) — At the gate to the National Police Academy, on the western edge of the Afghan capital, the guard’s rifle bolts into firing position. “Stop!” he shouts.

It’s 4 a.m., the street lights are not working and the guard’s superiors had neglected to tell him that the red Toyota Corolla would be arriving. Time and again, suicide bombers have attacked Afghanistan‘s police and army outposts. So one of the first lessons taught at the academy is diligence.

The readiness of Afghanistan’s security forces is central to U.S. and NATO plans to withdraw all forces from the country by the end of 2014, and the academy’s new commander wants to help turn around a 146,000-strong national police force long riddled with corruption, incompetence and factional rivalries.

Such problems are not always acknowledged publicly. On Thursday, President Hamid Karzai said that his military and police are prepared to take full responsibility for security if the American-led international coalition decides to speed up the handover. And a statement released this week by the NATO-led force, ISAF, called the Afghan National Army the most respected institution in the country and said “the Afghan national police also rank highly.”

FULL ARTICLE (TIME World)

Photo: isafmedia/Flickr

Resolve Border Issues Before Negotiating with Taliban: ICG | TOLO News

By Shakeela Ahbrimkhil

The first step in resolving the insurgency in Afghanistan is not negotiation with the Taliban but addressing the cross-border issues with Pakistan, said the International Crisis Group (ICG) in an interview with TOLOnews this week.

ICG senior analyst in Afghanistan Candace Rondeaux said there would be no insurgency if there was no conflict between the two neighbours.

“The first agenda of any negotiation process is not the Taliban, but the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan. That is number one,” Rondeaux said.

FULL ARTICLE (TOLO News)

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Afghan government could ‘collapse post-NATO’ | Al Jazeera

The Afghan government could implode after NATO troops pull out in 2014, particularly if presidential elections are fraudulent, according to a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG).

A repeat could undermine what little hope remains for stability after the Afghan government takes full responsibility for security from US-led NATO forces, the analysis by the respected Brussels-based group says.

The report, Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the 2014 Transition, says the country is on course in 2014 for another set of fraudulent elections after the chaotic presidential and parliamentary polls in 2009 and 2010.

“There is a real risk that the regime in Kabul could collapse upon NATO’s withdrawal,” Candace Rondeaux, the ICG’s senior Afghanistan analyst, says in the report.

FULL ARTICLE (Al Jazeera)

Photo: The U.S. Army/Flickr