International Crisis Group

U.S. Challenges in a Changed Middle East | Council on Foreign Relations

by Bernard Gwertzman

The events in the Middle East continue to rapidly unfold, providing difficulties for U.S. policy in the region, whether it is the decades-long conflict between Israel and Palestine, the rise of Islamists, the conflict in Syria, or tensions with Iran. Middle East expert Robert Malley says, “With Islamists in power in Egypt, with Hamas more powerful than it was the last time it was at war with Israel [2008-09], the United States is trying to figure out its place in a region that is no longer the one it was accustomed to.” And in Syria, although a negotiated end to Bashar al-Assad’s regime is preferable, “unfortunately, it almost certainly is not the most likely” way the conflict will end. He says the United States is conflicted over accepting Egyptian help in ending the recent Israel-Hamas attacks while it is also uncomfortable with the domestic policies of the Muslim Brotherhood.

FULL ARTICLE (Council on Foreign Relations)

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“Gaza enjoys a strategic depth, and Hamas a political one, that both lacked not long ago. Relations have improved with a vast array of countries, and more progress is expected.”

-Crisis Group’s new report, Light at the End of their Tunnels? Hamas & the Arab Uprisings

“… in the early months of the Arab revolts, Hamas’s fortunes seemed to be changing in a way the movement could have only dreamed of, offering what it hoped would be an unprecedented chance to advance its goals in the region, as well as in Gaza, the West Bank and Palestinian society generally…”

- a map and an excerpt from Crisis Group’s latest report on Hamas and the Arab Uprisings

Central Asia: Region in Decline 

By Kimberly Abbott

The countries of Central Asia are in the midst of a deep crisis. Often overshadowed in international circles by their war-torn neighbor to the south, Afghanistan, most of the Central Asian “Stans” — Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan — are experiencing a slow, painful decline, with their own governments largely to blame. Kazakhstan is in less trouble, but shows little interest in reform or the ability to handle labour unrest or so-far low-key challenges from insurgent groups.

Central Asia provides a textbook example of the damage that endemic corruption does to a country. The education and health systems in places like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, for example, are nearing total collapse. Many teachers leave in the middle of the school year in favor of better-compensated jobs as migrant laborers in Russia. Rates of unemployment are extreme, especially in Tajikistan, where the economy scrapes by on remittances from workers abroad in Russia. Rural areas there are hardest hit — some might receive just an hour of electricity a day in the winter. Here and elsewhere in the region, the capitals fare better, but only because leaders have learned to prevent angry crowds in the centers of power.

For now, the United States is the most visible external power in Central Asia, with critical supply routes running through the region into and out of Afghanistan in what is called the Northern Distribution Network (NDN). The Pentagon expanded these lines after tensions with Pakistan shut down routes into southern and eastern Afghanistan. But as the United States begins to withdraw from Afghanistan, there will be a window of opportunity for other powers to stretch an arm of influence into Central Asia. Russia, the traditional outside power in the region, would like to maintain what it calls its “privileged relations” in the region. It has neither the money to win over regional leaders, nor the troops to protect them, however, should the need arise.

China, on the other hand, is on the way up, and is likely to be the predominant external force in Central Asia after the U.S. and NATO complete their drawdown. China is likely to establish roots in Central Asia after the U.S. completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan, scheduled for late 2014. China’s interests center on the region’s abundant natural resources, in particular oil and gas. And China alone possesses the technical and financial capability to exploit these resources on a large scale. But it may also find itself charged with shoring up the security of some of the most vulnerable Central Asian states.

Beyond corruption, Central Asia’s most chronic problem may well be Afghanistan. During the United States’ long war in South Asia, Central Asian fighters joined the Taliban insurgency, providing a security reprieve for weak states like Tajikistan. As the war ends, those fighters may return home, with unpredictable but potentially volatile results. 

Looking forward, the Chinese government must improve its clumsy and insensitive labor and environmental policies if it wants to stay in Central Asia for the long term. The Chinese may also find themselves pulled into the region’s corruption and security concerns — for instance, some analysts fear that radical Islamist fighters in Afghanistan could spread north, even as far as China’s Xinjiang province.

I spoke with Paul Quinn-Judge, Deputy Asia Director for the International Crisis Group, about what to expect in Central Asia in the coming years. Listen to our conversation here.

Follow Kimberly Abbott on Twitter: www.twitter.com/kimberlymabbott

FULL ARTICLE

Photo: Holding Steady/ Flickr

Wanted in Somalia: US puts bounties on top Al Shabab leaders | Christain Science Monitor

Seven of Somalia’s most senior Islamist commanders were for the first time Thursday added to the State Department’s list of terrorists with multi-million dollar bounties on their heads. 

A total of $33 million could be paid out for information leading to the capture of the men, all members of the country’s Al Shabab terror group, which is linked to Al Qaeda. 

They will join Al Qaeda’s overall commander, Ayman Al Zawahiri, Taliban leader Mullah Omar, and Hizbullah cell members on the list of people wanted under the US Rewards for Justice program. 

It has already paid out more than $100 million to 70 different people who have provided tip-offs that led the US to locate key enemies, including Saddam Hussein’s sons Uday and Qusay. 

Thursday’s move to add Somali terror suspects to the list was “politically symbolic” but would not “lead to their imminent capture,” says J. Peter Pham, director of the Michael S. Ansari Africa Center at the Atlantic Council in Washington. 

“You generally can’t draw a direct causal link between large awards being offered through the Rewards for Justice program and senior terrorist figures being apprehended,” he says. 

“It has been helpful at finding lower level people, but in the Somali context it is a politically symbolic move that puts these men beyond the pale and in a special category where there can be no soft landing for them in the future.” 

FULL ARTICLE (CS Monitor)

Photo: Farah Abdi Warsameh/AP