"What is finally remarkable about the Middle East’s poorly drawn borders is how durable they are."
—Nathan Thrall, Crisis Group’s Middle East senior analyst, in Tablet Magazine’s “The Mideast Crack-Up”
Showing posts tagged as "Politics"
Showing posts tagged Politics
24
May
The Mideast Crack-Up | Tablet Magazine
By David Samuels
Q: Our current maps of the Middle East were drawn by British and French cartographers after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the aftermath of World War I. Are the lines on those maps about to change? Or is this simply a moment of local bloodshed that will get cleaned up once governments—in Baghdad, Damascus, Washington, Ankara, Jerusalem, Moscow, Beirut, Beijing, Ramallah, etc.—draft a few well-worded accords?
Nathan Thrall: Long-lasting as many minority regimes proved to be, it hardly seems the case, as David Goldman suggests, that they were the “only possible stable government.” Egypt since the 1952 revolution lasted longer than minority regimes elsewhere in the region, yet it was not ruled by Copts. The Saudi regime has outlasted rivals, yet it is not made up of Saudi Shiites. Iran is not governed by Azeris. Turkey is not under Kurdish control, and Palestinian citizens of Israel have not taken over the Jewish state.
Without doubt we are witnessing the strongest challenge yet posed to the post-Ottoman order in the Levant. With every passing day, Syria comes to more closely resemble an earlier period in its history, when the French briefly divided the territory into statelets containing Druze, Alawite, Sunni, and Maronite majorities—the last of which survived to became modern-day Lebanon. The current Syrian civil war threatens to spill over into Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq, which teeters on the brink of a renewed civil war of its own.
Yet, as distant as a unified Syria may seem today, most of its people still want such a state, while Iraq has survived enormous bloodshed, reversals of regional alliances, calls for partition, increasing Kurdish autonomy, and the end of Sunni minority rule. What is finally remarkable about the Middle East’s poorly drawn borders is how durable they are. Altering them could occur under present conditions but would be far more likely in the aftermath of a wider regional war.
FULL ARTICLE (Tablet Magazine)
Photo: James Gordon/Flickr
"In domestic political terms, Morsi is going to be damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. If he negotiates, he will be criticized for being too lenient with Islamist militants, and if he tries to wage an operation to free them, which may entail casualties, then he is also going to be widely criticized."
—Yasser El-Shimy, Egypt analyst, in Reuters’ “Egyptian army boosts forces in Sinai after kidnapping”
23
May
Drone Strikes In Pakistan ‘Ineffective’ | Sky News
US drone strikes targeting militants in the tribal area of Pakistan have been ineffective at preventing attacks on Nato troops, a new report has concluded.
The International Crisis Group report says that drone strikes have killed a significant number of al Qaeda leaders and commanders of the Pakistan and Afghan Taliban, but also scores of innocent civilians.
Since 2004, there have been at least 350 drone strikes in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) - mostly in North Waziristan, South Waziristan and Kurram.
But the report criticises the killing of civilians through “signature” strikes that target groups of men based on behaviour patterns associated with terrorist activity rather than known identities.
Photo: UK Ministry of Defence/Flickr
22
May
Jubaland in Jeopardy: The Uneasy Path to State-Building in Somalia
from Crisis Group’s blog, The African Peacebuilding Agenda
On 15 May 2013, Sheikh Ahmed Madobe, leader of the Ras Kamboni militia and a close ally of Kenya, was elected Jubaland president by regional clan representatives. Hours later, Barre Hirale, a warlord from a rival clan allied with the Somali Federal Government (SFG), declared himself president. The effort to create a Jubaland state within Somalia will test the limits of federalism in that country, and threatens to touch off clan warfare not only within Somalia but also in its neighbours.
We spoke to Zakaria Yusuf, Somalia Analyst , and Claire Elder, Horn of Africa Research Assistant, to learn more about Jubaland and find out if there is a risk of conflict.
Click here to read the Q & A.
Image reproduced with permission of Asempa Limited, publisher of Africa Confidential (www.africa-confidential.com). Original map first appeared in Africa Confidential, Vol. 52, No. 22, 4 November 2011.
21
May
President Obama is scheduled to deliver a speech on U.S. drone policy this Thursday. If you’d like to read up in advance, check out today’s report, Drones: Myths And Reality In Pakistan, which digs down into what the CIA-run program has truly achieved in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
Photos: Flickr/Todd Huffman/Argonne National Laboratory
"If Pakistan is genuinely committed to ending strikes on its territory, it should realise that its strongest case against the U.S. drone program lies in overhauling an anachronistic governance system so as to establish fundamental constitutional rights and genuine political enfranchisement in FATA."
—from Crisis Group’s recent report, Drones: Myths and Reality in Pakistan
"The Obama administration should terminate any practice, such as the reported signature strikes, that does not comply with principles of international humanitarian and human rights law. It must also introduce transparency to the drone program, including its governing rules, how targets are selected and how civilian damage is weighed."
—from Crisis Group’s recent report, Drones: Myths and Reality in Pakistan
"Pakistan’s attitude towards drones borders on the schizophrenic."
—from Crisis Group’s recent report, Drones: Myths and Reality in Pakistan
"Even with so-called “personality” strikes in which the individual has been targeted based on evidence of identity, accurate assessments of collateral damage are impossible."
—from Crisis Group’s recent report, Drones: Myths and Reality in Pakistan
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