International Crisis Group

Hope on Israel-Palestine? Maybe, Just Maybe | The Nation

By Bob Dreyfuss

Something might actually be happening in the Middle East, that is, on the Israel-Palestinian front. It’s not an area that’s usually visited by The Dreyfuss Report, because it seems permanently stalemated and stuck. (We’re talking decades here.) But Secretary of State John Kerry might be up to something.

FULL ARTICLE (The Nation)

Photo: Jamie Lynn Ross/Flickr

The Mideast Crack-Up | Tablet Magazine

By David Samuels

Q: Our current maps of the Middle East were drawn by British and French cartographers after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the aftermath of World War I. Are the lines on those maps about to change? Or is this simply a moment of local bloodshed that will get cleaned up once governments—in Baghdad, Damascus, Washington, Ankara, Jerusalem, Moscow, Beirut, Beijing, Ramallah, etc.—draft a few well-worded accords?

Nathan Thrall: Long-lasting as many minority regimes proved to be, it hardly seems the case, as David Goldman suggests, that they were the “only possible stable government.” Egypt since the 1952 revolution lasted longer than minority regimes elsewhere in the region, yet it was not ruled by Copts. The Saudi regime has outlasted rivals, yet it is not made up of Saudi Shiites. Iran is not governed by Azeris. Turkey is not under Kurdish control, and Palestinian citizens of Israel have not taken over the Jewish state.

Without doubt we are witnessing the strongest challenge yet posed to the post-Ottoman order in the Levant. With every passing day, Syria comes to more closely resemble an earlier period in its history, when the French briefly divided the territory into statelets containing Druze, Alawite, Sunni, and Maronite majorities—the last of which survived to became modern-day Lebanon. The current Syrian civil war threatens to spill over into Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq, which teeters on the brink of a renewed civil war of its own.

Yet, as distant as a unified Syria may seem today, most of its people still want such a state, while Iraq has survived enormous bloodshed, reversals of regional alliances, calls for partition, increasing Kurdish autonomy, and the end of Sunni minority rule. What is finally remarkable about the Middle East’s poorly drawn borders is how durable they are. Altering them could occur under present conditions but would be far more likely in the aftermath of a wider regional war.

FULL ARTICLE (Tablet Magazine)

Photo: James Gordon/Flickr

Palestine After Fayyad: The Choice Between Cooperation and Conflict | Foreign Affairs

By Nathan Thrall, Crisis Group’s Middle East Senior Analyst

When Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad resigned last Saturday, fed up with political attacks from President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah party, a number of observers worried that it marked “the beginning of the end of the PA.” Western governments viewed Fayyad as indispensible, the only uncorrupted figure both aligned with Western interests and sufficiently independent of Fatah to check its unelected rule in the West Bank.

Although Fayyad was unpopular — his party received just 2.4 percent of the vote in the 2006 legislative election — he was a capable technocrat, successfully administering the scattered municipalities of the West Bank. He spoke a common tongue with international donors, having formerly served as the International Monetary Fund’s representative to the PA, and was valued in Washington primarily because of his reputation for transparency, his efforts at reforming the PA security forces, and his close cooperation with Israel. The vocal support Fayyad received from Israel and the United States was enough to discredit him among Palestinians — a dilemma familiar to Abbas as well.   

Like Fayyad, Abbas was once an unelected prime minister brought into office with U.S. backing but with little street credibility or public support. He was the first appointee to the newly created position of prime minister, created under pressure from Washington in the hope of weakening PA President Yasser Arafat. Abbas’ testy relationship with Arafat is strikingly similar to Fayyad’s recent conflict with Abbas. Abbas clashed with the distrustful president and Fatah party, which mobilized protests against him and branded him a puppet of Israel and the United States — ultimately forcing him to resign the post. 

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Affairs)

Photo: Zachary Baumgartner/Flickr

Conditions Ripe for a Palestinian Spring? | International Policy Digest

By Sarah Lucas

The waves of mass demonstrations that swept through Tunisia and Egypt have so far passed by the people of the Palestinian territories. But those events have inspired a youth movement which may have a chance at mobilizing the masses in the first entirely nonviolent Palestinian resistance.  There is a significant amount of frustration across a broad segment of Palestinian society. The peace process with Israel appears incurably stalled, and there is deep anger at the continued failure of Fatah and Hamas, the disputing political factions, to deliver on their promise of reconciliation.

“I’ve never seen the West Bank like this before, it’s a ticking time bomb,” says Fadi Elsalameen, a youth leader based in Hebron. “I’m predicting very soon you’ll see every sector of society join in a mass peaceful protest in Palestine.”

The leaders of Palestine’s “March 15” youth movement, a number of whom were interviewed for this article, have attempted to leverage growing discontent into large-scale protests. So far, they have been unable to replicate the success of their Cairo counterparts. The largest demonstration on 15 March 2011, from which the movement takes its name, saw only a couple of thousand turn out in Ramallah, and around 10,000 in Gaza City. “In Palestine, there’s protest fatigue,” says Robert Blecher, director of the Arab-Israeli project at the International Crisis Group. “It’s not going to catch fire until there’s a clear goal”.

FULL ARTICLE (International Policy Digest)

Photo: Michael Loadenthal/Flickr

Weekly Update | International Crisis Group

The week of 3 December 2012

Reports: Philippines

Commentary: Lebanon & Syria, Israel/Palestine

Video: International Crisis Group

Quotes: Syria, Uzbekistan, Guinea Bissau, Turkey, North Korea

REPORTS

The Philippines: Breakthrough in Mindanao

The next round of talks between the Philippines’ largest Muslim insurgent group and the government is a crucial step towards implementing a sweeping peace agreement signed in October. (5 December)

More reports

COMMENTARY

التوازنات الهشة تستدعي سوريا إلى لبنان - من عهد الوصاية إلى زمن الرهانات 

سحر أطرش، لوموند ديبلوماتيك النشرة العربية، ٥ دسمبر

Abbas’ New York Minute - The Peace Process after the UN Vote 

Robert Blecher, Foreign Affairs, 1 December

إسرائيل وحماس في شرق أوسط جديد 

روبرت بلشر وناثان ثرال، القدس العربي، ٣٠ نوفمبر

VIDEOS

We Are the International Crisis Group 

Watch our new short video. (14 November) 

QUOTES

“There is the risk of the total destruction of Damascus. The regime is well entrenched in some key parts of Damascus and the opposition is unable to come up with a political vision to offer an exit to the bulk of people fighting for the regime.” 

Peter Harling, Project Director for Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, The Telegraph [UK], 6 December. 

“[Uzbekistan] is one of the most oppressive regimes in the world by any indicator you’d care to refer to. Does any of that - ie, the stuff that actually matters - change because Gulnara Karimova is now engaging people on Twitter? No, of course not.” 

Andrew Stroehlein, Communications Director, New Europe, 5 December. 

“Le processus de transition a peu avancé pour le moment. En outre, le pays est isolé : les autorités ne sont pas reconnues, et la quasi-totalité de l’aide internationale à l’Etat est suspendue.” 

Vincent Foucher, analyste pour l’Afrique de l’Ouest, cité dans Le Monde à propos de la situation en Guinée Bissau, 3 décembre. 

“There is nervousness in Turkey about the escalation of the conflict in Syria, and a way of making it seem like everything is going to be OK is Patriot missiles. It also brings in an element of NATO protection for Turkey.” 

Hugh Pope, Turkey and Cyprus Project Director, The Toronto Star, 3 December. 

“I don’t see signs of China fundamentally changing its policy on North Korea. There are limits to what [the US] can impose and enforce.” 

Daniel Pinkston, North East Asia Deputy Project Director, The Financial Times, 2 December. 

Abbas’ New York Minute | Foreign Affairs

By Robert Blecher

he UN General Assembly vote on November 29, which granted Palestine the status of a nonmember observer state, was little more than an act of political theater. But in the pretend world of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, theater can matter. Last week’s floor show offered Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), and his Fatah confreres a chance to distract attention from their recent losses. After all, they have had a rough year: no progress toward ending the occupation and developing a political solution with Israel; a persistent budget crisis; street protests that, for first time, targeted him and the other PA leaders; and most recently, Operation Pillar of Defense, an Israeli incursion into the Gaza Strip that left Abbas sitting on the sidelines while Hamas, his movement’s rival, chocked up what passes for victory in Palestine. Now, at least, nobody can say that Abbas failed. But what he achieved is unclear.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Affairs)

Photo: Lawrence Jackson/Wikimedia Commons

U.S. Challenges in a Changed Middle East | Council on Foreign Relations

by Bernard Gwertzman

The events in the Middle East continue to rapidly unfold, providing difficulties for U.S. policy in the region, whether it is the decades-long conflict between Israel and Palestine, the rise of Islamists, the conflict in Syria, or tensions with Iran. Middle East expert Robert Malley says, “With Islamists in power in Egypt, with Hamas more powerful than it was the last time it was at war with Israel [2008-09], the United States is trying to figure out its place in a region that is no longer the one it was accustomed to.” And in Syria, although a negotiated end to Bashar al-Assad’s regime is preferable, “unfortunately, it almost certainly is not the most likely” way the conflict will end. He says the United States is conflicted over accepting Egyptian help in ending the recent Israel-Hamas attacks while it is also uncomfortable with the domestic policies of the Muslim Brotherhood.

FULL ARTICLE (Council on Foreign Relations)

Photo: Talk Radio News Service/Flickr

Analysis: The next stop for Palestinians could be global courts | Reuters

By Joseph Schuman

(Reuters) - The U.N. General Assembly’s overwhelming vote to recognize Palestine as a non-member state offers little prospect for greater clout in world politics but it could make a difference in the international courts.

The formal recognition of statehood, even without full U.N. membership, could be enough for the Palestinians to achieve membership at the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC), where member states have the power to refer for investigation alleged war crimes or crimes against humanity.

FULL ARTICLE (Reuters)

Photo: real.tingley/Flickr

US, Israel low key as France announces support for Palestinian UN bid | Al-Monitor

By Laura Rozen

The United States, in consultations with Israeli negotiator Yitzhak Molho in Washington in recent days, has urged Israel not to overreact to Palestinian plans to seek upgraded status at the United Nations on Thursday, advice Israel seemed inclined to take.

FULL ARTICLE (Al-Monitor’s The Back Channel)

Photo: Michele Benericetti/Flickr

Gazans move quickly to rebuild bombed tunnels to bring in food, weapons | NBC News

By NBC News staff and wire reports

Palestinians wielded shovels and planks Monday to reopen tunnels used to smuggle in goods from Egypt to the Gaza Strip after Israel’s eight-day offensive against Hamas.

Israeli airstrikes have heavily targeted the network of tunnels, which smugglers use to bring in various items — including food, fuel, construction materials and weapons — to Gaza’s 1.6 million residents.

Residents along the Egypt-Gaza border say that smugglers and tunnel owners are still inspecting the damage but that many of the tunnels still operate, though at reduced capacity, according to The Associated Press.

FULL ARTICLE (NBC News)

Photo: Zoriah/Flickr