International Crisis Group

Pondering Pyongyang: Beijing’s problem child | CNN

By Kristie Lu Stout

After the United Nations slapped tougher sanctions on North Korea after its third nuclear test in February this year, Pyongyang screamed in defiance. It canceled its hotline with South Korea, withdrew its workers from the Kaesong industrial complex it jointly operates with Seoul, and carried on with its over-the-top threats.

China may have backed those sanctions but the economic lifeline is still there. Trade goes on between North Korea and China. In 2011, before some of these trade embargoes began, China accounted for an estimated 67.2% of North Korea’s exports and 61.6% of imports, according to the CIA World Factbook.

“If you talk to officials at the border, there’s no change,” says Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, the North Asian head of the International Crisis Group.

FULL ARTICLE (CNN)

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North and South Korea tentatively agree to talks on shuttered industrial zone | CNN

By Jethro Mullen and K.J. Kwon

The North Korean decision to halt operations surprised some observers, since Kaesong was considered an important source of hard currency for Kim Jong Un’s regime.

The proposal for talks regarding the complex indicates that “maybe the cost of closure of Kaesong is greater than they had anticipated,” said Daniel Pinkston, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group covering Northeast Asia.

At the same time, Pinkston said, North Korea’s key ally China, which has expressed displeasure with some of Pyongyang’s recent behavior, may not have been “as generous as the North Koreans have been expecting in terms of aid, assistance, trade and investment.”

FULL ARTICLE (CNN)

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North Korea rejects US call for talks | Financial Times

By Simon Mundy 

Daniel Pinkston, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the statement was consistent with previous pronouncements. “They’re so committed [to the nuclear programme]. People fail to recognise that this policy was announced by the party central committee – they wrote it into law.”

Mr Pinkston said he doubted that the US would open talks with North Korea while it vowed to press ahead with its nuclear programme, calling such a move “politically unacceptable” in Washington.

FULL ARTICLE (Financial Times) (paywall)

Photo: Joseph A Ferris III/Flickr

N. Korea urges foreigners in South to evacuate | AFP

By Park Chan-Kyong 

Last week’s warning to embassies in Pyongyang was also largely dismissed as rhetoric, with most governments making it clear they had no plans to withdraw personnel.

“It’s almost comic,” said Daniel Pinkston, a North Korea expert with the International Crisis Group.

“They want to rattle the investment market, create pressure and make people nervous.

“But it’s just not working. It’s as if they didn’t get a rise out of the embassies in Pyongyang, so they’re just moving on to the next target,” Pinkston said.

FULL ARTICLE (AFP)

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China swiftly becoming exasperated with North Korea | Catholic Online

Daniel Pinkston, a North Korea expert at the International Crisis Group, said Beijing was “fed up” at the distractions being created by Pyongyang while it tries to focus its energies on other problems. “They need to address issues in the South China Sea, they have a corruption campaign going on at home, North Korea is giving them a headache,” Pinkston says.

China’s relationship with North Korea had become a liability, he says. “Why should China maintain relations with a regime and a country that will face failure sooner or later?” he asked. “Once North Korea has nuclear weapons, it cannot be ruled out that the capricious Kim regime will engage in nuclear blackmail against China,” he added.

FULL ARTICLE (Catholic Online)

Photo: Joseph A Ferris III/Flickr

N Korea loads missiles onto launchers, tells Russia, Britain to evacuate embassies  | Herald Sun

There has been speculation that Pyongyang might schedule a missile launch to coincide with the birthday of the North’s late founder Kim Il-Sung in mid-April.

“A flight test would make sense,” Daniel Pinkston, a North Korea expert at the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“But I’d be surprised if they used an untested missile. At this stage in the game, they don’t want to be firing off something that might disintegrate after 30 seconds.”

FULL ARTICLE (Herald Sun)

Photo: Joseph A Ferris III/Flickr