International Crisis Group

History lessons | Myanmar Times

By Jim Della-Giacoma, Crisis Group’s South East Asia Project Director

Indonesia, with its free media, rambunctious democracy and frequent elections could well be the most democratic country in Southeast Asia. Its robust economic growth is something others want to emulate. It is not surprising that it is regarded as something of a global success story and has  been studied by those leading Myanmar’s transformation as they also try to create a stable, prosperous and democratic post-authoritarian nation.

But Indonesia is neither a perfect nor model democracy. Its transition 15 years ago was incredibly violent. The sudden end of 32 years of authoritarian rule brought about dramatic political change, but it also unleashed a series of deadly ethnic and religious violent conflicts across the archipelago. It is easy to forget the first dark years of “reformasi” and how many feared that this diverse country would break up into its component ethnic parts. The lessons from this period provide Myanmar with the opportunity to learn from Indonesia’s mistakes.

According to one study, between 1998 and 2002, six Indonesian provinces, including East Timor, experienced large-scale extended violence that killed almost 16,000 people. This is a conservative estimate, and the death toll was almost certainly higher. But the good news is that in the last decade, four out of the remaining five of Indonesia’s extended violent conflicts have ended. How did this happen?

FULL ARTICLE (Myanmar Times)

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Anti-Muslim ‘radicals’ driving Myanmar unrest, experts say | South China Morning Post

Two years after a repressive junta ceded power, Myanmar is grappling with a surge in religious extremism that experts trace to anti-Muslim “provocateurs” including radical Buddhist monks.

At least 43 people have been killed while mosques and Muslim homes have been destroyed over the past fortnight in central Myanmar, in a wave of violence that witnesses say seems to have been well organised.

“It is clear that there are some agents provocateurs with radical anti-Muslim agendas at work in the country – including influential Buddhist monks preaching intolerance and hatred of Muslims,” said Jim Della-Giacoma, a Myanmar expert with the International Crisis Group think-tank.

FULL ARTICLE (AFP via South China Morning Post)

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CrisisWatch N°116 | 01 April 2013

In the Central African Republic, a peace deal signed two months ago in Libreville collapsed as the Seleka rebel alliance, having repeatedly violated the ceasefire, seized the capital Bangui on 24 March. President Francois Bozizé fled to Cameroon. Seleka leader Michel Djotodia declared himself president and suspended the constitution and National Assembly. The African Union condemned Seleka’s “unconstitutional change” of government, suspending CAR’s membership and imposing sanctions against Seleka’s leaders. Despite its rapid seizure of power, the Seleka coalition appears fragile and prone to fragmentation, prompting fears that factions may take up arms again. Crisis Group identifies a conflict risk for Central African Republic.

Tensions continued to escalate on the Korean peninsula. The UN Security Council’s 7 March resolution condemning North Korea’s February nuclear test prompted Pyongyang to threaten pre-emptive nuclear strikes against “invaders”. North Korea announced that it would no longer be bound by the 1953 Korean War armistice, and cut off communications hotlines with South Korea and the UN Command in Seoul. The North Korean army ordered all its rocket and long-range artillery units to be combat-ready and targeting U.S. bases and territory, and the government declared North Korea to be in a “state of war” with South Korea. In a show of force the U.S. flew B-52 and B-2 bombers over South Korea and deployed F-22 stealth fighters to the South as part of an ongoing military exercise. On 31 March, a rare Central Committee meeting in Pyongyang declared nuclear weapons are non-negotiable and North Korea’s nuclear status should be written into law.

In a new outbreak of intercommunal violence in Myanmar in the central town of Meiktila on 20-22 March, more than 40 people were killed and over 12,000 displaced, and hundreds of mainly Muslim-owned buildings destroyed, in attacks by Buddhist mobs. President Thein Sein imposed a state of emergency in the area and deployed the military to restore calm. Amid speculation that the attacks were pre-planned by extremists, there was widespread concern as the violence spread to towns and villages in other parts of the country in the following days, although there were no reported casualties from these other incidents.

The political uncertainty and paralysis gripping Lebanon worsened with the abrupt resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati on 22 March following a standoff with Hizbollah. Political instability further fed ongoing sectarian tensions and clashes, mainly in the southern town of Saida and the northern city of Tripoli, where a dozen people were killed in clashes between Sunni and Alawite militants 22-24 March. Regular cross-border shelling by Syria continued, and the Syrian regime for the first time launched air strikes inside Lebanon.

Within Syria the first credible reports emerged of chemical weapons use in the ongoing conflict. The government and rebels accused each other of firing a rocket loaded with chemical agents near Aleppo on 19 March, and the opposition reported two people killed in an alleged chemical missile attack on Adra, near Damascus.

Iraq’s political crisis again deepened in March. Widespread demonstrations in Sunni areas of the country have met an increasingly hardline security response, with security forces killing two Sunni protesters in Mosul on 8 March. Finance Minister Rafie al-Issawi resigned his post, as did Agriculture Minister Ezz al-Din al-Dawla, in solidarity with the protesters. Meanwhile Iraq’s parliament relied exclusively on votes from the Shia’s political blocs to pass the 2013 budget law, illustrating Baghdad’s increasingly sectarian politics.

As the stalemate between Egypt’s President Mohamed Morsi and the opposition continued, violent clashes between opponents and supporters of the ruling Muslim Brotherhood broke out outside the Islamists’ headquarters in Cairo on 22 March. Subsequent days also saw violent protests. President Morsi warned that he would take “necessary measures” to “protect the nation”, and the prosecutor general ordered the arrest of several activists. The violence took place as political demonstrations and riots in Egypt are increasingly giving way to socio-economic protest in the face of fuel shortages, inflation and price increases.

Nepal’s main parties ended months of political deadlock on 14 March. They agreed to hold elections to a new Constituent Assembly by 21 June under an interim election government, led by Supreme Court chief justice Khil Raj Regmi. The interim government will comprise retired bureaucrats, and be guided by a political committee of the four largest parties. If elections are not held in June, the government will be extended until 15 December.

Prospects for peace between Turkey’s government and Kurdish insurgents are improving after five months of negotiations between the national intelligence agency and the jailed leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan. The 21 March call by Öcalan for an eventual ceasefire and withdrawal to outside Turkish borders – and PKK’s military leader Murat Karayılan’s subsequent acceptance of the idea – are particularly positive signs.

FULL CRISISWATCH

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A Dangerous Resurgence of Communal Violence in Myanmar

from Crisis Group’s blog, Resolving Conflict in South East Asia

by Jim Della-Giacoma

Over the past week there has been more inter-communal violence in Myanmar, this time in the country’s heartland – with the worst incidents in the town of Meiktila, between Mandalay and the capital Naypyitaw. The incident started with a brawl in a gold shop and rapidly escalated into large-scale Buddhist-Muslim clashes that left nearly 50 people dead and over twelve thousand displaced, according to the latest government figures. Other credible estimates put the number of displaced even higher.

The Muslim community was the hardest hit, as it has tended to be in previous such clashes. More than three-quarters of those displaced were Muslims. Many of their homes were destroyed, and a number of religious buildings (mosques and madrassas) were burned down. Although a state of emergency and a visible presence of the security forces on the streets has restored calm, it will be weeks or months before the displaced can rebuild their homes and lives. And, given that most have lost everything – and are in fear of further attacks – there is uncertainty about how many of them would have the means or the confidence to return to their former neighbourhoods.

For communities that have lived together for generations, the speed and scale of the violence comes as a shock. Yet such incidents are not unheard of in Myanmar: serious Buddhist-Muslim clashes occurred in central parts of the country in 2001, triggered in part by the destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas in Afghanistan by the Taliban and calls by firebrand Myanmar monks for the destruction of mosques in retaliation. Serious riots also occurred in the 1930s and 1960s, and smaller-scale incidents have occurred with some regularity.

FULL POST (Crisis Group)

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Myanmar on edge after new eruption of interreligious violence | LA Times

By Emily Alpert

The Meiktila violence echoes clashes last year in the western state of Rakhine, where hundreds were slain in riots between majority Rakhine Buddhists and minority Rohingya Muslims. The bloodshed has marred hopes for Myanmar, also known as Burma, as it takes steps toward democratic reform.

The International Crisis Group has suggested that ethnic unrest might actually be a byproduct of reform, by allowing all kinds of causes “unprecedented space to organize that has been denied for decades.”

“This probably represents the most significant challenge to the democratic reform process underway in Myanmar,” said Mark Schneider, senior vice president of the group. “While the government was able to reestablish order, it’s clear that the underlying problems have not yet been dealt with.”

FULL ARTICLE (LA Times)

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Myanmar in Transition: Louise Arbour | PBS

Crisis Group’s President and CEO, Louise Arbour, was interviewed for PBS Great Decisions’ documentary on Myanmar.  The transcript of her interview is available online.

When should the international community intervene in a humanitarian crisis?

Well, the international community should intervene at all times where there’s a real grave risk of loss of human life or mass atrocities. The real difficult question is, “How should it intervene?” not so much whether it should. And currently we all have in mind military interventions but there are lots of other forms of interventions that are considerably less coercive or catastrophic in their possible consequences. Diplomacy – I think we have to reinvest considerably more in sort of preventative diplomacy engagement. Paying attention, early warnings, all of these kinds of preventative mechanisms I think have to be activated at all times.

FULL TRANSCRIPT

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A serious threat to peace in Myanmar 

from Crisis Group’s blog, Resolving Conflict in South East Asia

By Jim Della-Giacoma

The fighting in Kachin areas – the Kachin State itself and Kachin-majority parts of northern Shan State – has been one of the most serious threats to peace during Myanmar’s transition since it erupted in June 2011, ending a seventeen-year-long ceasefire.  It remains the last of Myanmar’s decades-long ethnic conflicts not currently to have a ceasefire.

Since Crisis Group first raised concerns in November 2011 about the grave consequences the breakdown of the ceasefire could pose for the country’s New Peace Initiative, other Storm Clouds have gathered on the country’s horizon, including virulent inter-communal violence in Rakhine State. These are serious challenges that must be overcome if Myanmar is to keep its broadly positive transition on track. But as Myanmar can see from the Indonesian experience, transitions are complicated, long, and often messy processes. They do not always end up as those who advocated or started them intended. There are many deviations and frequently bumps in the road.

FULL POST (Crisis Group)

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from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy

by Louise Arbour

Myanmar

Myanmar’s leaders continue to fulfill their pledges on reform, moving the country decisively away from its authoritarian past. Political prisoners have been released, blacklists trimmed, freedom of assembly laws implemented, and media censorship abolished. President Thein Sein has built a partnership with the opposition, especially the National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who was voted into parliament this year.

But the road to democracy is proving hard. Widespread intercommunal violence in Rakhine state, targeting principally the Rohingya Muslim minority, has cast a dark cloud over the reform process. Such tensions often arise as more freedom allows buried conflicts to resurface — even so, the continued risk of communal violence in Rakhine is very alarming and will need a concerted, unambiguous response from the government and Aung San Suu Kyi to make clear it has no future in the new Myanmar. The inability to sign a ceasefire in Kachin State, another festering ethnic conflict, also risks undermining the president’s new peace initiative with ethnic armed groups. 

The West has moved quickly to begin dismantling sanctions on Myanmar and end its diplomatic isolation. President Barack Obama’s visit in early November showed the strength of U.S. support for the reforms. But Myanmar isn’t out of the woods yet: Both the government and the opposition need to show moral leadership to achieve a lasting solution to lingering ethnic-based conflicts, which threaten their country’s reform process and stability.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Policy)

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In Pursuit of Peace Award Dinner: Peace, Prosperity and the Presidency

New York, 26 November 2012: The International Crisis Group will honour President Thein Sein of Myanmar and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil at its annual In Pursuit of Peace Award Dinner in New York City on 22 April 2013.

Crisis Group’s Award Dinner is an opportunity to celebrate inspirational figures from government, diplomacy and public policy whose visionary leadership has transformed the lives of millions and brought forth the promise of a world free of conflict.

“At a time when so much of the world seems to be headed in the wrong direction, Myanmar and Brazil stand out as clear examples of presidents working for a better path for their people”, said Thomas R. Pickering, Chair of the International Crisis Group.

“Both President Thein Sein and President Lula are worthy recipients in this regard, having helped Myanmar and Brazil take significant steps forward and encouraged a greater role for them in promoting regional and international diplomacy following years of isolation”.

Crisis Group President Louise Arbour said, “Myanmar has initiated a remarkable and unprecedented set of reforms since President Thein Sein’s government took over in March 2011, including freeing hundreds of political prisoners, liberalising the press and promoting dialogue with the main opposition party”.

Of course, Myanmar still needs to build on this political liberalisation to date. It must urgently find ways to address communal violence between the Rakhine and the Rohingya (as Crisis Group noted back in June and again in a report published earlier this month), which continues to devastate people’s lives, particularly those in minority Muslim communities. Still, the country has seen very significant progress: for the first time in almost fifty years, all but one of the ethnic armed groups have signed preliminary ceasefires with the government, and it is hoped that an agreement will also soon be reached with the Kachin Independence Organisation (read more about Crisis Group’s work in Myanmar).

As President of Brazil from 2003 to 2010, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, propelled his country into a new economic and political era, taking millions out of poverty. Upon this solid foundation, his government became a critical regional and world player with a social agenda and bringing a South-South approach to international cooperation and global development.

President da Silva offered its regional neighbours a partnership, making integration a concrete reality. Brazilian diplomacy also helped its South American neighbours to face their own internal crises.

Brazil’s solidarity towards Africa was also notable with the country opening 17 new diplomatic missions there during President da Silva’s government. Brazil also took charge of the peacekeeping operation in Haiti and the naval part of the UN’s mission in Lebanon.

Lula’s government developed an autonomous diplomacy, in harmony with the demands of globalisation and its development projects. Variable alliances enabled the nation to exercise a worldwide presence and deepen its influence. Brazil’s coalitions, strategic partnerships and new alliances enabled the country and its partners to fill a power vacuum in the international field.

Now in its eighth year, Crisis Group’s In Pursuit of Peace Award Dinner recognises the outstanding accomplishments of individuals working to prevent and resolve deadly conflict worldwide. Previous recipients of the awards include: U.S. Presidents William Jefferson Clinton and George H.W. Bush; Nobel Peace Prize laureates Martti Ahtisaari and Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, and financier and philanthropist George Soros.

Why Investors Should Tread Warily in Myanmar | Bloomberg Businessweek

By Joshua Kurlantzick

When President Barack Obama arrives in Myanmar (Burma) Monday for the first-ever visit to the country by a sitting American president, he’ll be joining a large group of investors who have been eagerly scouting the country.

As most leading democracies have dropped sanctions on Myanmar over the past year, the country’s largest city, Yangon, has been inundated with foreign investment. General Electric (GE) and other consumer-goods companies are scouting out opportunities in Myanmar, while the leading credit-card companies are partnering with Myanmar banks to get into the market. Banks such as Standard Chartered are figuring out how to return. Even the World Bank, which has not had a presence in the country in decades, authorized a landmark aid package this month worth $245 million.

FULL ARTICLE (Bloomberg Businessweek)

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