International Crisis Group

Myanmar in Transition: Louise Arbour | PBS

Crisis Group’s President and CEO, Louise Arbour, was interviewed for PBS Great Decisions’ documentary on Myanmar.  The transcript of her interview is available online.

When should the international community intervene in a humanitarian crisis?

Well, the international community should intervene at all times where there’s a real grave risk of loss of human life or mass atrocities. The real difficult question is, “How should it intervene?” not so much whether it should. And currently we all have in mind military interventions but there are lots of other forms of interventions that are considerably less coercive or catastrophic in their possible consequences. Diplomacy – I think we have to reinvest considerably more in sort of preventative diplomacy engagement. Paying attention, early warnings, all of these kinds of preventative mechanisms I think have to be activated at all times.

FULL TRANSCRIPT

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from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy

by Louise Arbour

Myanmar

Myanmar’s leaders continue to fulfill their pledges on reform, moving the country decisively away from its authoritarian past. Political prisoners have been released, blacklists trimmed, freedom of assembly laws implemented, and media censorship abolished. President Thein Sein has built a partnership with the opposition, especially the National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who was voted into parliament this year.

But the road to democracy is proving hard. Widespread intercommunal violence in Rakhine state, targeting principally the Rohingya Muslim minority, has cast a dark cloud over the reform process. Such tensions often arise as more freedom allows buried conflicts to resurface — even so, the continued risk of communal violence in Rakhine is very alarming and will need a concerted, unambiguous response from the government and Aung San Suu Kyi to make clear it has no future in the new Myanmar. The inability to sign a ceasefire in Kachin State, another festering ethnic conflict, also risks undermining the president’s new peace initiative with ethnic armed groups. 

The West has moved quickly to begin dismantling sanctions on Myanmar and end its diplomatic isolation. President Barack Obama’s visit in early November showed the strength of U.S. support for the reforms. But Myanmar isn’t out of the woods yet: Both the government and the opposition need to show moral leadership to achieve a lasting solution to lingering ethnic-based conflicts, which threaten their country’s reform process and stability.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Policy)

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from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy

by Louise Arbour

Philippines

This could be the year that sees the Philippines take decisive steps toward establishing lasting peace in the troubled south, after the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the country’s largest and best armed insurgent organization, signed a breakthrough peace agreement in October. The deal follows 15 years of fitful talks and setbacks and is the best chance yet of ending the 40-year insurgency, which has killed an estimated 120,000 people. The conflict with the MILF is the major — though by no means only — source of violence plaguing the region. Warlords, kidnappers, and violent extremists who harbor terrorists from elsewhere in the region also have the capacity to wreak havoc for years to come.

The peace agreement aims to solve these problems by creating a new, genuinely autonomous region in the Muslim-majority region of Mindanao. It will have more authority, more territory, and more control over resources — and if things go according to plan, will be in place by the time President Benigno Aquino leaves office in 2016. 

The October deal put off several tough questions that still need to be resolved, including legislation to set up the region and the future of MILF fighters. The MILF will need to sell some tricky provisions in the deal to its supporters. The Aquino administration will need to persuade Congress to pass the new law and clear constitutional hurdles before it can devolve power to the government in the new autonomous region. The obstacles are huge, but hopes are high that peace in the southern Philippines is finally within reach.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Policy)

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from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy

by Louise Arbour

And now, for some good news — Colombia

Finally, a political solution to Colombia’s long and bloody guerrilla war may be in sight. Following a year of secret contacts, formal peace talks between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas opened in October 2012.

The broader dynamic of the conflict also encourages a political settlement. The FARC has been weakened militarily, and this generation of leaders have possibly their last opportunity to vindicate decades of struggle by signing a peace deal that allows the guerrillas to participate in building peace. The government operates from a position of strength — its military advantage, if not decisive, appears irreversible.

The success of the talks is not assured. Differences over policy issues on the agenda are substantial, skepticism toward the FARC remains widespread among many in Colombia, and — even though a majority of Colombians back the process — support for the negotiations has been falling. But mainstream political forces remain committed to the talks, and opponents have so far failed to make much headway. The security forces are also better aligned with the civilian leadership than in the past and have a seat at the negotiation table, reducing risk of the coordination failures between political and military agendas that have marred previous peace attempts.

A decade of intense counterinsurgency warfare has greatly weakened the combat strength of the guerrillas and pushed them into ever more remote rural hideouts, substantially reducing their impact on the major urban centers. But the conflict still costs lives on a daily basis, holds back socioeconomic development, and impedes the consolidation of a truly inclusive and pluralistic democracy. The road ahead will not be short or smooth, but Colombia cannot afford to miss this chance for peace.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Policy)

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from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy

by Louise Arbour

Iraq

As Syria descends deeper into chaos, knives are being sharpened and battle lines being drawn in Iraq. The Shiite-led government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has chosen to side with Iran, Russia, and China in an attempt to avoid the reshaping of the region by Sunni Gulf states, Turkey, and the United States.

Maliki has repeatedly burned his bridges with Iraq’s other religious and ethnic communities, taking measures to expand his control over political institutions and the security forces. His actions violate the Erbil agreement, which was formulated in 2010 to limit the powers of the prime minister and grant fair power sharing to Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish parties.

Maliki now faces resistance not only from the president of the Kurdish region, Masoud Barzani, but also from Sunni and secular opponents — and even from cleric Muqtada Sadr in his own Shiite Islamist camp. The incapacitation of President Jalal Talabani, a key mediator in the dispute between Baghdad and Erbil, adds to political uncertainty in the new year. Pouring fuel on the fire, al Qaeda continues to shatter the relative calm with devastating bombings. Maliki has clearly lost the trust of a good part of the political class, which accuses him of veering toward indefinite, autocratic rule. But efforts to hold a parliamentary no-confidence vote against him have foundered over deep divisions among his opponents.

This effectively leaves Maliki as caretaker prime minister until the next elections in 2014. It is a recipe for violence, and it is certainly possible for a spiraling sectarian-tinged civil war in neighboring Syria to exacerbate tensions in Iraq and usher the country into yet another round of strife in 2013.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Policy)

Photo: The U.S. Army/Flickr

from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy

by Louise Arbour

Central Asia

This region provides a laundry list of countries on the brink. Tajikistan lumbers into 2013 with nothing good to show for 2012. Relations with Uzbekistan continue to deteriorate, and internal domestic disputes threaten to foment separatist ambitions in Gorno-Badakhshan. This mountainous and remote eastern province had little time for the central government in Dushanbe — even before government troops clashed with local fighters, many of them veterans of the Tajik civil war, whom they described as members of an organized crime group. Some of the fighters, including one of their leaders, were members of Tajikistan’s border forces. Additionally a number of residents of Khorog, described at one point as youth who had been misled by anti-government propaganda, also participated. (The area has long been deeply suspicious of the central government). 

Kyrgyzstan is no better. It continues to ignore festering ethnic tensions and rule-of-law issues in the south while a long-anticipated ethnic policy languishes unadopted in the office of the president. The central government’s reach in Osh grows progressively weaker, and the international community again seems to have little or no interest in all the early warning signs.

Widespread and systematic human rights abuses, meanwhile, are still the norm in Uzbekistan. To make matters worse, there are no plans for political succession once President Islam Karimov, 74, leaves the stage — a recipe for regional upheaval. Until the United States clears the last of its troops and materiel from Afghanistan, however, the issue is not likely to get much traction in Washington.

If trends continue, Kazakhstan faces another violent year ahead — 2012 saw a record number of terrorist attacks in western and southern parts of the country by previously unidentified jihadist groups. Astana’s attempt to cast itself as a stable ship in a regional sea of unpredictability is undermined by the fact that this is a country where protesters are shot dead and activists jailed. Socioeconomic grievances may yet be the undoing of the Kazakh state.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Policy)

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from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy

by Louise Arbour

Syria and Lebanon

The conflict in Syria has continued to take numerous ugly turns, and will probably continue to do so. The regime has proved difficult to topple, and its foes even harder to eradicate. As those in the region and further afield speculate about the coming fall of the regime — the initial post-Assad stages carry enormous risks, not only for Syria’s people but for the region at large. Just getting through the winter will be hard, as growing numbers of Syrians are displaced, entire neighborhoods are leveled, state institutions further erode, and international aid falls short.

President Bashar al-Assad’s approach in dealing with those opposed to his rule tore Syrian society apart. The opposition’s gradual radicalization in response has fuelled a self-reinforcing cycle in which both sides have increasingly relied on military solutions over political ones. As Syria’s religious and ethnic communities have polarized, regime supporters have dug in their heels — committing atrocities spurred on by their perception of facing a “kill or be killed” situation, and their fears of large-scale retribution when Assad falls.

The violence devouring Syria has also made it fertile ground for hardline Sunni Islamists, who have managed to rally around them those disenchanted with the West — not least thanks to their access to Gulf Arab funding and jihadi military knowhow acquired elsewhere. To reverse this dangerous trend, the opposition needs to articulate a more credible, less nihilistic vision for the future, members of the international community need to coordinate their policies, and a perilous military struggle needs to move towards a political solution.

Inevitably, and especially due to the sectarian undertone this conflict has acquired, Syria’s war is leaking over its border into Lebanon. History bodes ill: Beirut seldom has been immune to the influence of Damascus. It is crucial that Lebanon’s leaders address the fundamental shortfalls of their governing structure, which exacerbate factionalism and leave the country vulnerable to the chaos next door.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Policy)

Photo: James Gordon/Flickr

from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy

by Louise Arbour

Kenya

Despite reforms to address the shortcomings and violence of the 2007 polls in Kenya, significant structural drivers of conflict remain. Youth unemployment, poverty, and inequality are high, security sector reform has stalled, and ongoing land disputes continue to deepen ethnic polarization. As the planned March 2013 elections approach, the risk of political violence is high.

Two leading presidential aspirants, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, have been charged with crimes against humanity and are due to face trial at the ICC in April 2013, raising hopes that finally a serious attempt is being made to erode long-standing immunity for political elites. But the cases could just as easily dash hopes of accountability if they aggravate ethnic tensions or tarnish political opponents, leading to a fresh bout of violence.

Having an indictee as president, or as vice president, will have enormous implications for not only Kenya’s foreign relations but also internal reforms. The 2013 elections will likely play out against a backdrop of threatened attacks by Somalia-based militant group al-Shabab and protests by the separatist Mombasa Republican Council. Either could provoke a backlash against the country’s sizable ethnic Somali and Muslim communities, causing further destabilization during what will already be a difficult year for Kenya.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Policy)

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