International Crisis Group

from 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013 | Foreign Policy

by Louise Arbour

Democratic Republic of the Congo

The April 2012 mutiny in the east by M23 rebels, former rebels turned military turned rebels again, created a distinct feeling of déja vu. Once again, after so many years of conflict, regional and international actors are left scrambling to contain an insurgent rebel group, with a range of ostensibly domestic demands but clearly profiting from external backing, and prevent another regional war in the DRC. The consequences of the latest round of violence have been tragic for civilians, with reports emerging of wide-scale human rights abuses, extrajudicial executions targeting civil society, and massive displacement of local populations.

Mediation efforts by the regional International Conference of the Great Lakes Region have seen the withdrawal of M23 from the eastern city of Goma and the initiation of peace talks, but the risk of repeated rebellion and widespread violence remain. Previous attempts at post-conflict reconstruction in the DRC have met with little success. Without adequate pressure on both the DRC government and Rwanda-backed rebels to enact crucial governance reforms and open political dialogue, the sad history of civil conflict will likely continue to repeat itself in the DRC in 2013.

Congo’s dismal state should also force the international community to take a hard look at its own behavior. Ten years into a massive commitment to shore up stability in the DRC, bring legitimacy to the government in Kinshasa, and protect civilians in the east, the situation is going from bad to worse. The government of President Joseph Kabila lacks national buy-in; the citizens of the eastern Kivu provinces — despite the presence of the largest-ever U.N. peacekeeping operation — remain woefully unprotected; and the country’s integrity remains prey to the whims of predatory neighbors.

FULL ARTICLE (Foreign Policy)

Photo: EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection/Flickr

New U.N. Charges Linking Rwanda to DRC Rebel Group Heat Up Regional Tensions | World Politics Review 

By Brian Dabbs 

KAMPALA, Uganda — Following months of heated exchanges between international observers and Rwandan officials, a United Nations investigative body leveled its most detailed and controversial accusations over alleged Rwandan support for the Congolese M23 rebels in a 44-page report leaked late Tuesday. 

The document claims that Rwandan Defense Minister Gen. James Kabarebe exercises direct command over the rebel group. Formerly integrated into the Congolese army, M23 launched a mutiny in April, carving a significant swathe of territory out of the volatile, crisis-prone eastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo ever since.

FULL ARTICLE (World Politics Review)

Photo: Al Jazeera English/Flickr

Congo demands sanctions on Rwanda, Uganda over rebels | Reuters 

By Jonny Hogg

(Reuters) - Democratic Republic of Congo on Wednesday demanded targeted sanctions against Rwandan and Ugandan officials accused by a U.N. experts panel of backing a six-month-old insurgency in its volatile eastern borderlands.

The U.N. Security Council’s Group of Experts said in a confidential report seen by Reuters that both Rwanda and Uganda were supporting the M23 rebels, who are expanding their control of parts of Congo’s mineral-rich North Kivu province, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to flee their homes.

FULL ARTICLE (Reuters)

Photo: United Nations/Flickr 

Intervention in Eastern Congo a Rising Priority for Activists | AlertNet

Carey L. Biron

As the situation in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to deteriorate in the wake of an armed rebellion that began in April, some activists have strengthened calls for foreign military intervention.

FULL ARTICLE (AlertNet)

Photo: davehighbury 

African Leaders Discuss Sending Troops Into DRC  |  Voice of America

By Hilary Heuler

KAMPALA — Leaders of Africa’s Great Lakes region are meeting in the Ugandan capital to discuss sending an international force into the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

The leaders of the eleven countries that make up the African Great Lakes region gathered in Kampala, Uganda today to address the latest crisis in eastern Congo, where the government has been battling rebel groups for years.

FULL ARTICLE (VOA)

Photo: US Army Africa/Flickr

Black Gold in the Congo: Threat to Stability or Development Opportunity? | International Crisis Group

Kinshasa/Nairobi/Brussels  |   11 Jul 2012

Renewed oil interest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could nurture communal resentments, exacerbate deep-rooted conflict dynamics and weaken national cohesion.

Black Gold in the Congo: Threat to Stability or Development Opportunity?, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, warns of a potential “oil curse” in the still vulnerable country. Oil exploration in the east and the Central Basin could aggravate conflict in the high-risk areas of the Kivus, and feed secessionist tendencies in a context of failed decentralisation and financial discontent between the central state and the provinces. If confirmed, oil discoveries could redefine the country’s geopolitics, and notably question mineral-rich Katanga’s political influence.

“In the context of a general oil rush in Central and East Africa, the lack of clearly defined borders, especially in the Great Lakes region, poses significant risk for maintaining regional stability”, says Marc-André Lagrange, Crisis Group’s Central Africa Senior Analyst. “Oil reserves straddling the country’s borders with Uganda and Angola have already caused tension”.

Eastern DRC is plagued by rebel groups that are already illegally exploiting natural resources, along with the Congolese army. The April 2012 failed mutiny by General Bosco Ntaganda, wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes since 2006, and the emergence of a new armed group (M23) are illustrations of this longstanding instability. In the west, while offshore oil production for Angola started several years ago, Kinshasa is contesting the definition of maritime borders.

In addition, poor governance has been the hallmark of the oil sector since exploration resumed. Black gold is the main source of government revenue and yet, with exploration in full swing, oil sector reform is several years behind schedule. Instead of creating a transparent legal framework and robust institutions, the previous governments behaved like speculators.

The state’s failure to adequately regulate the diverging and potentially conflicting interests of companies and poor communities is fuelling resentment, which could easily flare up into local violence. Exploration blocks include natural parks and a World Heritage Site.

Regionally, the government should work with neighbouring countries and the African Union to design a management model for cross-border reserves and launch a border demarcation program. Nationally, it should reform the oil sector and declare a moratorium on exploration in unstable areas, especially in the east, and involve provinces in the main management decisions concerning this resource.

“In a context of massive poverty, a weak state, poor governance and regional insecurity, an oil rush will have a strong destabilising effect”, says Thierry Vircoulon, Crisis Group’s Central Africa Project Director. “To avert such a devastating scenario, the government should, at the regional level, favour dialogue with its neighbours to solve border disputes, and, at the national level, regulate oil exploitation to improve governance and accountability”. 

FULL REPORT

UN mission ‘failing to protect DRC civilians’ | The Journal

THE INTERNATIONAL Crisis Group has penned an open letter to the UN Security Council warning of the risk of a major escalation in violence and criticising its mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo of failing in its mandate to protect civilians.

The ICG warns that “history is again repeating itself” in eastern DRC where there is “a risk of serious escalation of violence”.

The group also accuses the United Nations Stabilization Mission in the Congo (MONUSCO) of failing in its core mandate of stabilisation and the protection of civilians, saying that the mission’s stabilisation strategy has been too heavily centred on “an expectation that the 2008-2009 rapprochement between DRC and Rwanda was enough to contain the conflict in the Kivus”.

FULL ARTICLE (The Journal)

Photo: Pete Muller/AP