International Crisis Group

"What is finally remarkable about the Middle East’s poorly drawn borders is how durable they are."

Fri, 24 May 2013 13:32:31 -0400

“What is finally remarkable about the Middle East’s poorly drawn borders is how durable they are.”

- Nathan Thrall, Crisis Group’s Middle East senior analyst, in Tablet Magazine’s “The Mideast Crack-Up”

The Mideast Crack-Up | Tablet Magazine By David Samuels Q: Our...

Fri, 24 May 2013 12:37:25 -0400

The Mideast Crack-Up | Tablet Magazine

By David Samuels

Q: Our current maps of the Middle East were drawn by British and French cartographers after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the aftermath of World War I. Are the lines on those maps about to change? Or is this simply a moment of local bloodshed that will get cleaned up once governments—in Baghdad, Damascus, Washington, Ankara, Jerusalem, Moscow, Beirut, Beijing, Ramallah, etc.—draft a few well-worded accords?

Nathan Thrall: Long-lasting as many minority regimes proved to be, it hardly seems the case, as David Goldman suggests, that they were the “only possible stable government.” Egypt since the 1952 revolution lasted longer than minority regimes elsewhere in the region, yet it was not ruled by Copts. The Saudi regime has outlasted rivals, yet it is not made up of Saudi Shiites. Iran is not governed by Azeris. Turkey is not under Kurdish control, and Palestinian citizens of Israel have not taken over the Jewish state.

Without doubt we are witnessing the strongest challenge yet posed to the post-Ottoman order in the Levant. With every passing day, Syria comes to more closely resemble an earlier period in its history, when the French briefly divided the territory into statelets containing Druze, Alawite, Sunni, and Maronite majorities—the last of which survived to became modern-day Lebanon. The current Syrian civil war threatens to spill over into Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq, which teeters on the brink of a renewed civil war of its own.

Yet, as distant as a unified Syria may seem today, most of its people still want such a state, while Iraq has survived enormous bloodshed, reversals of regional alliances, calls for partition, increasing Kurdish autonomy, and the end of Sunni minority rule. What is finally remarkable about the Middle East’s poorly drawn borders is how durable they are. Altering them could occur under present conditions but would be far more likely in the aftermath of a wider regional war.

FULL ARTICLE (Tablet Magazine)

Photo: James Gordon/Flickr

"In domestic political terms, Morsi is going to be damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t...."

Fri, 24 May 2013 11:57:29 -0400

“In domestic political terms, Morsi is going to be damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. If he negotiates, he will be criticized for being too lenient with Islamist militants, and if he tries to wage an operation to free them, which may entail casualties, then he is also going to be widely criticized.”

- Yasser El-Shimy, Egypt analyst, in Reuters’ “Egyptian army boosts forces in Sinai after kidnapping”

Drone Strikes In Pakistan ‘Ineffective’ | Sky...

Thu, 23 May 2013 10:51:51 -0400

Drone Strikes In Pakistan ‘Ineffective’ | Sky News

US drone strikes targeting militants in the tribal area of Pakistan have been ineffective at preventing attacks on Nato troops, a new report has concluded.

The International Crisis Group report says that drone strikes have killed a significant number of al Qaeda leaders and commanders of the Pakistan and Afghan Taliban, but also scores of innocent civilians.

Since 2004, there have been at least 350 drone strikes in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) - mostly in North Waziristan, South Waziristan and Kurram.

But the report criticises the killing of civilians through “signature” strikes that target groups of men based on behaviour patterns associated with terrorist activity rather than known identities.

FULL ARTICLE (Sky News)

Photo: UK Ministry of Defence/Flickr

Jubaland in Jeopardy: The Uneasy Path to State-Building in...

Wed, 22 May 2013 12:37:25 -0400

Jubaland in Jeopardy: The Uneasy Path to State-Building in Somalia

from Crisis Group’s blog, The African Peacebuilding Agenda

On 15 May 2013, Sheikh Ahmed Madobe, leader of the Ras Kamboni militia and a close ally of Kenya, was elected Jubaland president by regional clan representatives. Hours later, Barre Hirale, a warlord from a rival clan allied with the Somali Federal Government (SFG), declared himself president. The effort to create a Jubaland state within Somalia will test the limits of federalism in that country, and threatens to touch off clan warfare not only within Somalia but also in its neighbours.

We spoke to Zakaria Yusuf, Somalia Analyst , and Claire Elder, Horn of Africa Research Assistant, to learn more about Jubaland and find out if there is a risk of conflict.

Click here to read the Q & A.

Image reproduced with permission of Asempa Limited, publisher of Africa Confidential (www.africa-confidential.com). Original map first appeared in Africa Confidential, Vol. 52, No. 22, 4 November 2011.

Did you know these facts about the United States’ drone...

Wed, 22 May 2013 10:46:00 -0400

Photo: KAZVorpal/Flickr

Photo: DVIDSHUB/Flickr

Did you know these facts about the United States’ drone program in Pakistan?

Washington and Islamabad have no official agreement regarding U.S. drone strikes on Pakistani territory.
Since it does not officially acknowledge the CIA-run drone program in Pakistan, the U.S. government provides no breakdown of casualties.
Some communities in targeted provinces in Pakistan have become reluctant to hold funerals lest they attract drone strikes.
The U.S. government claims that targeted killings are a legally justified response to the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks. International legal experts have challenged this assumption that the U.S. can, more than a decade later and outside an active battlefield, still be at war with those it holds responsible and invoke the laws of war when targeting them.
Unlike international humanitarian law, international human rights law does not countenance the killing of civilians or bystanders.

Read more in our latest report, Drones: Myths and Reality in Pakistan

President Obama is scheduled to deliver a speech on U.S. drone...

Tue, 21 May 2013 18:30:00 -0400

President Obama is scheduled to deliver a speech on U.S. drone policy this Thursday. If you’d like to read up in advance, check out today’s report, Drones: Myths And Reality In Pakistan, which digs down into what the CIA-run program has truly achieved in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

Photos: Flickr/Todd Huffman/Argonne National Laboratory

"If Pakistan is genuinely committed to ending strikes on its territory, it should realise that its..."

Tue, 21 May 2013 13:32:00 -0400

“If Pakistan is genuinely committed to ending strikes on its territory, it should realise that its strongest case against the U.S. drone program lies in overhauling an anachronistic governance system so as to establish fundamental constitutional rights and genuine political enfranchisement in FATA.”

- from Crisis Group’s recent report, Drones: Myths and Reality in Pakistan

"The Obama administration should terminate any practice, such as the reported signature strikes, that..."

Tue, 21 May 2013 12:37:00 -0400

“The Obama administration should terminate any practice, such as the reported signature strikes, that does not comply with principles of international humanitarian and human rights law. It must also introduce transparency to the drone program, including its governing rules, how targets are selected and how civilian damage is weighed.”

- from Crisis Group’s recent report, Drones: Myths and Reality in Pakistan

"Pakistan’s attitude towards drones borders on the schizophrenic."

Tue, 21 May 2013 11:42:00 -0400

“Pakistan’s attitude towards drones borders on the schizophrenic.”

- from Crisis Group’s recent report, Drones: Myths and Reality in Pakistan

"Even with so-called “personality” strikes in which the individual has been targeted based on..."

Tue, 21 May 2013 10:46:00 -0400

“Even with so-called “personality” strikes in which the individual has been targeted based on evidence of identity, accurate assessments of collateral damage are impossible.”

- from Crisis Group’s recent report, Drones: Myths and Reality in Pakistan

"Nine years after the first U.S. drone strike in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas..."

Tue, 21 May 2013 09:51:00 -0400

“Nine years after the first U.S. drone strike in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in 2004, the U.S. refuses to officially acknowledge the CIA-run program, while Pakistan denies consenting to it.”

- from Crisis Group’s recent report, Drones: Myths and Reality in Pakistan

Drones: Myths and Reality in...

Tue, 21 May 2013 08:55:52 -0400

Drones: Myths and Reality in Pakistan

Islamabad/Washington/Brussels | 21 May 2013

Drone strikes alone will not eliminate the jihadi threat in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Extension of Pakistani law and full constitutional rights to the region is the only long-term solution.

In its latest report, Drones: Myths and Reality in Pakistan, the International Crisis Group examines the extensive CIA-led program of drone strikes in Pakistan. The report argues that the U.S. needs to be transparent about its drone policies and bring them in accord with legality and enhanced congressional oversight and judicial accountability, while Pakistan must live up to its responsibility for governance and security in FATA.

The report’s major findings and recommendations are:

Pakistan’s new civilian leadership under PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif must make the extension of the state’s writ in FATA the centrepiece of its counter-terrorism agenda, bringing violent extremists to justice and thus diminishing Washington’s perceived need to conduct drone strikes in Pakistan’s tribal belt.
Drones are not a long-term solution to the problem they are being deployed to address, since the jihadi groups in FATA will continue to recruit as long as the region remains an ungoverned no-man’s land.
The U.S., while pressuring the Pakistan military to end all support to violent extremists, should also support civilian efforts to bring FATA into the constitutional and legal mainstream.
The lack of candour from the U.S. and Pakistan governments on the drone program undermines efforts to assess its legality or its full impact on FATA’s population. The U.S. refuses to officially acknowledge the program; Pakistan portrays it as a violation of national sovereignty, but ample evidence exists of tacit Pakistani consent and, at times, active cooperation.
Pakistan must ensure that its actions and those of the U.S. comply with the principles of distinction and proportionality under international humanitarian law. Independent observers should have access to targeted areas, where significant military and militant-imposed barriers have made accurate assessments of the program’s impact, including collateral damage, nearly impossible.
The U.S. should cease any practices, such as “signature strikes”, that do not comply with international humanitarian law. The U.S. should develop a legal framework that defines clear roles for the executive, legislative and judicial branches, converting the drone program from a covert CIA operation to a military-run program with a meaningful level of judicial and Congressional oversight.

“The core of any Pakistani counter-terrorism strategy in this area should be to incorporate FATA into the country’s legal and constitutional mainstream”, says Samina Ahmed, Crisis Group’s Senior Asia Adviser. “For Pakistan, the solution lies in overhauling an anachronistic governance system so as to establish fundamental constitutional rights and genuine political enfranchisement in FATA, along with a state apparatus capable of upholding the rule of law and bringing violent extremists to justice”.

FULL REPORT

humanrightswatch: Women and girls share a lighter moment at the...

Mon, 20 May 2013 21:24:11 -0400

humanrightswatch:

Women and girls share a lighter moment at the Doro refugee camp in Maban, Upper Nile state in South Sudan.

© 2012 Samer Muscati/Human Rights Watch

Our President, Louise Arbour, signed this open letter, calling...

Mon, 20 May 2013 16:36:21 -0400

Our President, Louise Arbour, signed this open letter, calling for the end of the taboo “that blocked for so long the debate on more humane and efficient drug policy”. Read in full on the Guardian.

Photo: Flickr/UN Photo Geneva

Piers Pigou, Southern Africa Project Director, and Trevor...

Mon, 20 May 2013 14:28:10 -0400

Piers Pigou, Southern Africa Project Director, and Trevor Maisiri, Southern Africa Senior Analyst, talk about tensions surrounding Zimbabwe’s 2013 elections in this video. We recently published a report looking at possible paths towards elections, expected to be held between July and November this year.

The Flawed Logic Behind Beijing’s Senkaku/Diaoyu Policy | The...

Thu, 16 May 2013 12:37:21 -0400

The Flawed Logic Behind Beijing’s Senkaku/Diaoyu Policy | The Diplomat

By Yaping Wang

Beijing has responded to Japan’s recent nationalization of the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, with activities on the ground (or water) designed to undermine Japan’s de-facto control of the islands. Beijing’s actions were rightly captured as “reactive assertiveness” by an International Crisis Group report, where “[China] exploits perceived provocations in disputed areas by other countries to take strong countermeasures to change the status quo in its favor.”

By inducing costs on the ground, Beijing’s goal is to make Tokyo recognize the existence of the dispute and agree to negotiate. However, this “reactive assertive” approach makes flawed calculations of risks and gains.

Beijing does have some logical reasons to pursue this course. One, inaction would be difficult to reconcile with boiling domestic nationalism. Two, Japan’s control of the islands does not give Tokyo any motive to recognize the existence of the dispute, much less the willingness to negotiate. Unless China gains some leverage vis-à-vis Japan, chances are thin that this issue will ever even reach the negotiating table. Three, Japan’s initial provocation may have inflamed China, but it offered Beijing the chance to retaliate by challenging Japan’s de-facto control of the islands while still claiming the moral high ground. Four, the economic ties between China and Japan, as well as U.S. interests, seem strong enough to keep potential armed conflicts at bay. To the extent that the U.S. is involved, its interests in these tiny, uninhabited rocks are marginal. Although its security treaty obligations with Japan bind it to action should the islands be attacked, the U.S. will attempt to deter the use of force. Finally, a strong and consistent response would effectively showcase to China’s other disputants, in the South China Sea for example, its resolve to defend its position in territorial disputes.

FULL ARTICLE (The Diplomat)

Photo: Flickr/Al Jazeera English

Venezuela: A House Divided Caracas/Bogotá/Brussels | 16 May...

Thu, 16 May 2013 11:41:56 -0400

Venezuela: A House Divided

Caracas/Bogotá/Brussels | 16 May 2013

Legal challenges to the close 14 April presidential election and the government’s reluctance to commit to a full review cast a shadow over the sustainability of the new administration in an already deeply polarised Venezuela.

Venezuela: A House Divided, the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the presidential election triggered by the death of President Hugo Chávez. Nicolás Maduro, Chávez’s chosen successor, won by a margin of less than 1.5 per cent over Henrique Capriles of the Democratic Unity alliance. The opposition has claimed irregularities and filed a court challenge after the electoral commission refused to conduct a full audit. The judiciary and other key institutions have been hollowed out in the fourteen years of Chávez’s rule, creating uncertainty about whether the transition to the post-Chávez era can be accomplished smoothly.

The briefing’s major findings and recommendations are:

An already polarised country is now clearly divided into two almost equal sides that appear irreconcilable. Dialogue and reconciliation are essential to maintain stability, but doubts surrounding the election must be clarified for this to happen.
The power vacuum produced by Chávez’s death is a source of potential instability. An extremely personalised political regime has been replaced by an unpredictable collection of group and even individual interests. The Chávez government dismantled important elements of democracy and the rule of law over the past fourteen years, and the costs are now being paid by the population, with homicide rates among the highest in the world and rising economic dislocation.
Venezuela’s government should recognise that the sharp division of the electorate necessitates consensus building, not a partisan agenda. It should build bridges to the opposition, the private sector and civil society, conduct dialogue to reduce tensions and avoid violence.
The international community has been mostly indifferent or silent about the deterioration of democracy and rule of law in Venezuela. It is time for stronger messages, particularly from neighbours and partners such as Brazil and regional organisations, regarding the need to avoid regional instability by resolving the political impasse peacefully and promoting democracy, rule of law and human rights, as well as offering mediation assistance if requested.

“There is a potentially dangerous gulf between the regime’s insistence that the election result be recognised as a condition for accepting the opposition, and the opposition’s understandable insistence that it can accept the election results only after a full and transparent review”, says Javier Ciurlizza, Crisis Group’s Latin America and Caribbean Program Director. “If the worst is to be avoided, the moderates (or pragmatists) on both sides need to find a way to bridge that chasm”.

“Venezuela urgently needs to reconstruct its social and political fabric in the post-Chávez era”, says Mark Schneider, Vice President and Special Adviser on Latin America. “It needs to avoid political violence and accept democratic checks and balances in addressing the huge challenges of crime and economic deterioration”.

FULL BRIEFING

Kenya After the Elections Nairobi/Brussels | 15 May...

Wed, 15 May 2013 10:46:40 -0400

Kenya After the Elections

Nairobi/Brussels | 15 May 2013

Though the 2013 general elections were relatively peaceful, Kenya is still deeply divided and ethnically polarised.

Kenya After the Elections, the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group,examines the 4 March elections that saw Jubilee Coalition’s Uhuru Kenyatta declared president. Despite various shortcomings and allegations of irregularities, Kenyans averted a repeat of the 2007-2008 post-election violence. However, the conflict drivers that triggered the 2007 bloodshed, including a culture of impunity, land grievances, corruption, ethnic tensions, weak institutions and regional and socio-economic inequality,have yet to be addressed adequately.

The briefing’s major findings and recommendations are:

The government needs to restore confidence in theelectoral machinery, which was undermined by technical failures in electronic voting and questions over the transparency of the tallying process.
Domestically, implementing devolution presents a crucial test, both in ensuring Kenya’s counties do not become “ethnic fiefdoms” and are inclusive of minority interests, and that they have adequate financial support despite the country’s current fiscal deficit.
Internationally, the new government will need to fully cooperate with the International Criminal Court (ICC) as the cases against the new president and deputy president for their alleged roles in the 2007 election violence proceed. Failure to do so will strain international relations, to the detriment of Kenya’s economy and its people.
Despite the strength of the Jubilee Coalition in the legislatures, the opposition needs to regroup under strong leadership to represent fully the more than five million voters who supported it.

“Maintaining the status quo is simply not an option for a still divided Kenya”, says Cedric Barnes, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director. “The ICC cases, a disappointed and bitter opposition and the implementation of an untested system of devolved governance remain significant challenges for the new government”.

“The new government has the opportunity to usher in an era of peace and socio-economic development that would benefit all communities and unite the country”, says EJ Hogendoorn, Crisis Group’s Africa Program Deputy Director. “The foundation has been laid with the overwhelming support the constitution received in 2010, a base that should be maintained and built upon for a peaceful and prosperous future”.

FULL BRIEFING

"This last incident on Saturday was the last in a string of incidents that directly affected..."

Tue, 14 May 2013 12:37:27 -0400

“This last incident on Saturday was the last in a string of incidents that directly affected Turkey’s security and the lives of Turkish civilians. So it definitely demonstrates the risks involved, for Turkey, in supporting Syrian opposition and being involved in Syria’s crisis.”

- Listen to Didem Collinsworth, Crisis Group’s Turkey Analyst, talk about Syrian–Turkish border clashes on FSRN.